Friday Crop Report on a Thursday!

[Blaithin]

Coworker was up by Rimbey on the weekend and said crops along the way look bumper compared to here. Not sure what way he took but I didn’t think here looked all that bad. Go east across the river or south towards Calgary and you quickly start to see bad!

Think it’s mostly small pockets of who got rain before the heat and who didn’t get quite as much heat.

[seldomseen]

Planes flying here this morning
3/10 rain in a month of dry weather , my guess is midge

If people are spraying midge what are they using?
Lorsban has always been recommended because it’s the only one that gets the eggs.
Lorsban is getting hard to find and is not being made anymore!

[Guest]

Somehow this P508CL is making pods thru a week of 35+

[furrowtickler]

Seeded area (acres) Average yield (bushels per acre) Production (metric tonnes)
2001 9,455,900 23.7 ...5,017,100
2002 9,579,800 22.2 ...4,520,500
2003 11,702,200 25.8 ...6,771,200
2004 12,894,600 28.1 ...7,673,600
2005 13,269,600 32.7 ...9,483,300
2006 13,055,339 30.7 ...9,000,300
2007 15,771,000 27.1 ...9,611,100
2008 16,163,200 34.7 ...12,644,900
2009 16,529,700 35.3 ...12,898,100
2010 17,585,900 33.3 ...12,788,600
2011 18,989,680 34.3 ...14,608,100
2012 22,176,000 27.9 ...13,868,500
2013 20,445,800 40.2 ...18,551,000
2014 20,899,600 34.9 ...16,410,100
2015 20,784,700 39.2 ...18,376,500
2016 20,784,044 42.3 ...19,599,200
2017 23,014,100 41.3 ...21,458,100
2018 22,813,200 40.6 ...20,724,000
2019 21,180,900 41.4 ...19,607,000
2020 20,782,600 40.1 ...18,719,700
2021 22,478,500 .. ..
__________________________________________________ ______

Here’s some canola math for you on 22,479,000 acres released:
1) 2002 = yield 22.2 bpa = 11.318 MMT
2) 2012 = yield 27.9 bpa = 14.224 MMT
3) 2014 = yield 34.9 bpa = 17.792 MMT
4) Average of the ’02, ’12 and ’14 = 28.33 bpa = 14.432 MMT

I think it’s time many need to face reality of what you were posting and what some of us are seeing first hand
With the new forecasts out , we will be in that 25 bus range ... best case scenario

[bucket]

25 bpa a pipe dream in this area....NFW will there be a 13mmt canola crop this year...sadly it takes 2 years for the math to be revealed.

A good crop next year will hide this year's poor yields.

But as many have found out there has been some manipulation of facts in the canola industry for a while now.

[furrowtickler]

25 bpa a pipe dream in this area....NFW will there be a 13mmt canola crop this year...sadly it takes 2 years for the math to be revealed.

A good crop next year will hide this year's poor yields.

But as many have found out there has been some manipulation of facts in the canola industry for a while now.

I don’t think this dryness will go away by next year

[bucket]

I don’t think this dryness will go away by next year

Agreed ,,,and my prediction for canola acres next year will be reduced substantially to lets say 17 million acres and production will be sub 12mmt for 2022...

Look we are going to need a subsoil moisture refill to even think of seeding anything next year.

The rains will have to be almost guaranteed before seeding next year...mot likely.

There is a alot of hurt coming whether you are financially stable or not....

You have to remember , this is Saskatchewan not Queeeebec with Air Canada , dairy, and SNC

[shtferbrains]

Very localized 7/10ths shower at Candle Lake last night.
Need to go to the lake to get rain.

Hear an odd sprayplane going here but virtualy none last day or 2.
Starting to see where the snow lay meaning all the 2.5in rain is used up.
Better see high prices to help make up for fewer tonnes.