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Friday Crop Report on a Thursday!

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    #76
    Any one who thinks we can achieve a big crop this year is smoking dope or a meth head. We are flowering in high heat and warm nights with a bad wind every day.

    Any guy who comes on tv radio or what ever and says it’s a good crop needs be charged if we could. Any one who subscribes to these fools needs to have a serious hard look at their costs and drop idiots like those I described.

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      #77
      Canola in southern mb will be lucky to hit 15 to 20. It will be a tough harvest with poor quality. This is a real disaster.

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        #78
        Originally posted by LWeber View Post
        6 MMT would be 11.77 bpa - half of 2002 - that's not likely to happen either. There will be carnage if it does.

        the new crush was predicated on US biodiesel requirements that now looks shaky.

        The problem with this drought is ....it won't be one and done.
        Canola crop around here "might" hold up its end of an 11.7 bpa.

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          #79
          After the heat does end it is still a LONG way from a crop in the bin!!
          These "experts" seem to think 1 rain will give us 50bpa and the price will stay at $25!!
          It still has to get enough RAIN to fill any pods or heads that do make it.
          Then there is still the odds of an early aug frost.
          Has anyone even looked ahead or released fall forecasts or the odds of frost or snow in early august?
          We have been very lucky the last few years to have very late frosts.
          Wind has been a constant since last spring, if it keeps up through crop maturity any canola with poorer pod integrity and these thinner stands won't handle winds like last year very well.
          Cereals will have to be straight cut or the heads will lay on the ground and be impossible to pick up.
          I hope the areas with a decent crop coming can get it in the bin.

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            #80
            I am generally an optimist, I usually laugh at the hand wringing here for how terrible everything is and then magically everyone is buying new tractors, trucks, airseeders and vacation properties for the Spring despite the horrible year they had. But this is different the crops are bad all across Western Canada. We don’t just have a drought, we have a drought, and extreme heat at flowering. These are two very separate very negative events. One without the other is bad but Western Canada is surprisingly resilient and can produce an average crop with very challenging conditions, but both a very bad. This looks similar to 1988 but with 7x the debt.

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              #81
              Sask canola yield in 1988 was 17.7 bpa. I wouldn't be a bit surprised.....

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                #82
                Canola was trying hard the last few days, but today it finally gave up. No advancement and the flowers turned white. Not even the real swamp helps in this heat.

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                  #83
                  Originally posted by wiseguy
                  Some of yours where it's been dry the last few years will be lucky to get 10 bu to the acre let alone 17 !

                  I've been around and seen the crops and the danage the heat did !

                  Sad part theirs morons out there that think it all goes 50 with no rain !
                  My twitter and online ads keep pushing a snake oil to prevent petal blasting... bahaha, SPEND MORE!

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                    #84
                    Originally posted by LEP View Post
                    I have a few bushels booked for fall already. The buyout looks ugly. I looked at buying calls but premiums are huge. Assessing possibilities at his point. Bad or worse are the two options available.
                    Typically I would have 1/2 expected yield on peas sold by now, and i'd pull the trigger on another 1/4 in about 2 weeks. I have no idea what expected yield is going to be...

                    Surely I'd get a super B, but if production is that little do I really want to let it go right off the combine? I can store a whopping 21bu/ac crop around here in steel, and I'm pretty much certain after today that I'll have plenty of bin space to clean seed in October.

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                      #85
                      On another note, Thank you SF3 for keeping an actual farming thread on this god forsaken hellsite. It's about the only bloody thing I even look at these days on here!

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                        #86
                        The sad part is that the government and environmentalists are pounding their drums about climate change and the effects of the extreme weather on food production. They are quick to tax the carbon emissions but fail to protect those farmers that risk everything to grow food for the world. If we have extreme heat like this going forward we will need assurances that the government will backstop our attempts to keep the world fed.

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                          #87
                          Originally posted by helmsdale View Post
                          Typically I would have 1/2 expected yield on peas sold by now, and i'd pull the trigger on another 1/4 in about 2 weeks. I have no idea what expected yield is going to be...

                          Surely I'd get a super B, but if production is that little do I really want to let it go right off the combine? I can store a whopping 21bu/ac crop around here in steel, and I'm pretty much certain after today that I'll have plenty of bin space to clean seed in October.
                          Peas are going to $12 delivered on Monday...green n yellow

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                            #88
                            Satellite showing rumble-tumble weather in western Allberta tonight, hopefully tomorrow evening in Saskie.

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                              #89
                              J.P. Gervais, FCC’s chief economist. “We are now projecting record high farm revenue in 2021..”

                              https://farmtario.com/markets-business/business/farm-debt-under-control-but-watch-for-higher-interest-rates/?module=explore_widget&pgtype=homepage

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                                #90
                                Enough to wet the deck , barley. Tonight, western sask., maybe Alberta got something.
                                I think we are done given the forecast, . We have had a 1.2 and a 1,5 all spring , it does not add up to 5. Like some here , canola lady did say they have some info from heat losses in canola, but never had temps like This in the data. What does that tell you. No mosquitoes though looking on the bright side

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