Friday Crop Report on a Thursday!

[Sheepwheat]

[ATTACH]8199[/ATTACH]

19.8 MMT has as much chance as Chucky posting a picture of his farm...

19.8 MMT equals a 38.87 bpa crop

Reference period Canola
2002 22.2
2003 25.8
2004 28.1
2005 32.7
2006 30.7
2007 27.1
2008 34.7
2009 35.3
2010 33.3
2011 34.3
2012 27.9
2013 40.2
2014 34.9
2015 39.2
2016 42.3
2017 41.3
2018 40.6
2019 41.4
2020 40.1

So what will happen if there is a six million tonne crop, Lweber? All these new crushers planned, based on a long term higher than usual precipitation, it just looks like the whole thing could fall apart. Other countries taking market share due to an unreliable CDN supply? Just so much devastation.

[LWeber]

So what will happen if there is a six million tonne crop, Lweber? All these new crushers planned, based on a long term higher than usual precipitation, it just looks like the whole thing could fall apart. Other countries taking market share due to an unreliable CDN supply? Just so much devastation.

6 MMT would be 11.77 bpa - half of 2002 - that's not likely to happen either. There will be carnage if it does.

the new crush was predicated on US biodiesel requirements that now looks shaky.

The problem with this drought is ....it won't be one and done.

[jazz]

People are not seeing the bigger picture here.

There are 5M more acres of canola seeded this yr. That means a lot of guys broke rotation and went canola snow canola. They wont be able to do that again next yr. You are looking at a multi yr canola shortfall coming up. Explosive prices probably, but somebody else will step into that market for sure. Probably EU or FSU. You could see cheaper product actually imported into Canada for these crushers.

Guys jizzed all over themselves buying up land and outbidding for rent and iron and making big pre contracts. Farmers went full FOMO. Now many missed last yrs rally and will now miss this yrs crop as well and be faced with buyouts. The farm boards are already lobbying for a percentage change to Ag Stab.

Instead of fall contracting, I put my crop insurance up to max.

Still selling last yrs durum and lentils today. Polishing up the locks for the bins.

[dustnbones]

6 MMT would be 11.77 bpa - half of 2002 - that's not likely to happen either. There will be carnage if it does.

the new crush was predicated on US biodiesel requirements that now looks shaky.

The problem with this drought is ....it won't be one and done.

Do you think some of those plants wont go ahead now? Hearing otherwise but wonder myself?
Good point on the drought, if this is a multi year look out.

[LWeber]

People are not seeing the bigger picture here.

There are 5M more acres of canola seeded this yr. .

Canada - Canola
Seeded area (acres)
2016 20,784,044
2017 23,014,100
2018 22,813,200
2019 21,180,900
2020 20,782,600
2021 22,478,500

[jazz]

Canada - Canola
Seeded area (acres)
2016 20,784,044
2017 23,014,100
2018 22,813,200
2019 21,180,900
2020 20,782,600
2021 22,478,500

My mistake, I thought statscan had 25M acres.

Then we should save the fungicide and buy urea because 2022 will be double down.

[Old Cowzilla]

My son stopped in for a few mins , to hot to spray trying after supper. They cover a fair bit of area with different soil types. He said there's a lot of really rough looking canola out there and very few fields that stand out. Just about zero fungicide and not sure why some want it done. Said he could give me a hand on the farm for a while because things where going to get pretty slow. See my neighbor hauling water to his pasture now.

[BreadWinner]

Those fertilizer prices going up won’t scare too many guys into buying this summer if the crop keels over and drys up. Fertilizer in the ground won’t get used up and guys won’t have money to buy more anyways.

[Ache4Acres]

East of Regina

Wow lots of seriously ugly looking canola

Patchy bare ground showing and thin little stems with flowers blasted off

I’ve never played futures market but I need to figure out how really quickly

More heat coming in the forecast

Broke a temp record from 1886 today!

[Partners]

Canola east of Humboldt looks more white flowers than yellow.
Going to be ugly yields..