Friday Crop Report on a Thursday!

[ry0972]

With the canola crop condition of the areas I have been the past 2 weeks and the lack of meaningful rain in any forecasts I think total production of 10MMT is more likely than 18 to 20MMT!!!

[LWeber]

With the canola crop condition of the areas I have been the past 2 weeks and the lack of meaningful rain in any forecasts I think total production of 10MMT is more likely than 18 to 20MMT!!!

Seeded area (acres) Average yield (bushels per acre) Production (metric tonnes)
2001 9,455,900 23.7 ...5,017,100
2002 9,579,800 22.2 ...4,520,500
2003 11,702,200 25.8 ...6,771,200
2004 12,894,600 28.1 ...7,673,600
2005 13,269,600 32.7 ...9,483,300
2006 13,055,339 30.7 ...9,000,300
2007 15,771,000 27.1 ...9,611,100
2008 16,163,200 34.7 ...12,644,900
2009 16,529,700 35.3 ...12,898,100
2010 17,585,900 33.3 ...12,788,600
2011 18,989,680 34.3 ...14,608,100
2012 22,176,000 27.9 ...13,868,500
2013 20,445,800 40.2 ...18,551,000
2014 20,899,600 34.9 ...16,410,100
2015 20,784,700 39.2 ...18,376,500
2016 20,784,044 42.3 ...19,599,200
2017 23,014,100 41.3 ...21,458,100
2018 22,813,200 40.6 ...20,724,000
2019 21,180,900 41.4 ...19,607,000
2020 20,782,600 40.1 ...18,719,700
2021 22,478,500 .. ..
__________________________________________________ ______

Here’s some canola math for you on 22,479,000 acres released:
1) 2002 = yield 22.2 bpa = 11.318 MMT
2) 2012 = yield 27.9 bpa = 14.224 MMT
3) 2014 = yield 34.9 bpa = 17.792 MMT
4) Average of the ’02, ’12 and ’14 = 28.33 bpa = 14.432 MMT

[helmsdale]

-4 straight days of 100*f+, and overnight lows of 65-70 with no dew.
-7 straight days exceeding 85*.
-3 days of 20-30mph winds with that heat that blew all last night and finally quit about noon today.
-last rain: 0.23" on june 24th
-june rainfall: 2.55"
-total rainfall since spring thaw: 5"
-snowpack: substantial
-subsoil moisture at seeding: as good as it gets.

Aside from the top 3 points, the remaining should have grown us a *decent* crop had mother nature been more agreeable. It's effing torched now! The damage done in 4 days is absolutely mind boggling. Except for the low spots and water runs, the rest of it is going to be a struggle to get onto the combine header. It wouldn't even be fit to bale.

It seems like the damage doesnt even show up for a few days either. The first 2 real hot days it looked like things were weathering *ok*, and then it just ran into a wall. Even if it rained its ass off now, I dont think this crop is salvagable. Hell, the way this year has gone, it wouldn't surprise me if the clouds opened up and flooded out our low spots.

[quadtrac]

Started off with a good nice looking crop here up until the last few days it looked promising.
Average in this area is 50 bushel or more.

Hoping we can hang onto 25 at the moment but if we don’t see some cooler temperatures and a good soaking rain soon all bets are off.

[LEP]

Seeded area (acres) Average yield (bushels per acre) Production (metric tonnes)
2001 9,455,900 23.7 ...5,017,100
2002 9,579,800 22.2 ...4,520,500
2003 11,702,200 25.8 ...6,771,200
2004 12,894,600 28.1 ...7,673,600
2005 13,269,600 32.7 ...9,483,300
2006 13,055,339 30.7 ...9,000,300
2007 15,771,000 27.1 ...9,611,100
2008 16,163,200 34.7 ...12,644,900
2009 16,529,700 35.3 ...12,898,100
2010 17,585,900 33.3 ...12,788,600
2011 18,989,680 34.3 ...14,608,100
2012 22,176,000 27.9 ...13,868,500
2013 20,445,800 40.2 ...18,551,000
2014 20,899,600 34.9 ...16,410,100
2015 20,784,700 39.2 ...18,376,500
2016 20,784,044 42.3 ...19,599,200
2017 23,014,100 41.3 ...21,458,100
2018 22,813,200 40.6 ...20,724,000
2019 21,180,900 41.4 ...19,607,000
2020 20,782,600 40.1 ...18,719,700
2021 22,478,500 .. ..
__________________________________________________ ______

Here’s some canola math for you on 22,479,000 acres released:
1) 2002 = yield 22.2 bpa = 11.318 MMT
2) 2012 = yield 27.9 bpa = 14.224 MMT
3) 2014 = yield 34.9 bpa = 17.792 MMT
4) Average of the ’02, ’12 and ’14 = 28.33 bpa = 14.432 MMT

I agree with a 13 to 15 mmt figure. I am just East of Helmsdale. No Canola looks good. But hopefully there will be something. I have a few bushels booked for fall already. The buyout looks ugly. I looked at buying calls but premiums are huge. Assessing possibilities at his point. Bad or worse are the two options available.

[SASKFARMER]

Any one who thinks we can achieve a big crop this year is smoking dope or a meth head. We are flowering in high heat and warm nights with a bad wind every day.

Any guy who comes on tv radio or what ever and says it’s a good crop needs be charged if we could. Any one who subscribes to these fools needs to have a serious hard look at their costs and drop idiots like those I described.

[agstar77]

Canola in southern mb will be lucky to hit 15 to 20. It will be a tough harvest with poor quality. This is a real disaster.

[VK58]

6 MMT would be 11.77 bpa - half of 2002 - that's not likely to happen either. There will be carnage if it does.

the new crush was predicated on US biodiesel requirements that now looks shaky.

The problem with this drought is ....it won't be one and done.

Canola crop around here "might" hold up its end of an 11.7 bpa.

[ry0972]

After the heat does end it is still a LONG way from a crop in the bin!!
These "experts" seem to think 1 rain will give us 50bpa and the price will stay at $25!!
It still has to get enough RAIN to fill any pods or heads that do make it.
Then there is still the odds of an early aug frost.
Has anyone even looked ahead or released fall forecasts or the odds of frost or snow in early august?
We have been very lucky the last few years to have very late frosts.
Wind has been a constant since last spring, if it keeps up through crop maturity any canola with poorer pod integrity and these thinner stands won't handle winds like last year very well.
Cereals will have to be straight cut or the heads will lay on the ground and be impossible to pick up.
I hope the areas with a decent crop coming can get it in the bin.

[Grahamp]

I am generally an optimist, I usually laugh at the hand wringing here for how terrible everything is and then magically everyone is buying new tractors, trucks, airseeders and vacation properties for the Spring despite the horrible year they had. But this is different the crops are bad all across Western Canada. We don’t just have a drought, we have a drought, and extreme heat at flowering. These are two very separate very negative events. One without the other is bad but Western Canada is surprisingly resilient and can produce an average crop with very challenging conditions, but both a very bad. This looks similar to 1988 but with 7x the debt.