Friday Crop Report on a Thursday!

[Sheepwheat]

[ATTACH]8199[/ATTACH]

19.8 MMT has as much chance as Chucky posting a picture of his farm...

19.8 MMT equals a 38.87 bpa crop

Reference period Canola
2002 22.2
2003 25.8
2004 28.1
2005 32.7
2006 30.7
2007 27.1
2008 34.7
2009 35.3
2010 33.3
2011 34.3
2012 27.9
2013 40.2
2014 34.9
2015 39.2
2016 42.3
2017 41.3
2018 40.6
2019 41.4
2020 40.1

So what will happen if there is a six million tonne crop, Lweber? All these new crushers planned, based on a long term higher than usual precipitation, it just looks like the whole thing could fall apart. Other countries taking market share due to an unreliable CDN supply? Just so much devastation.

[LWeber]

So what will happen if there is a six million tonne crop, Lweber? All these new crushers planned, based on a long term higher than usual precipitation, it just looks like the whole thing could fall apart. Other countries taking market share due to an unreliable CDN supply? Just so much devastation.

6 MMT would be 11.77 bpa - half of 2002 - that's not likely to happen either. There will be carnage if it does.

the new crush was predicated on US biodiesel requirements that now looks shaky.

The problem with this drought is ....it won't be one and done.

[jazz]

People are not seeing the bigger picture here.

There are 5M more acres of canola seeded this yr. That means a lot of guys broke rotation and went canola snow canola. They wont be able to do that again next yr. You are looking at a multi yr canola shortfall coming up. Explosive prices probably, but somebody else will step into that market for sure. Probably EU or FSU. You could see cheaper product actually imported into Canada for these crushers.

Guys jizzed all over themselves buying up land and outbidding for rent and iron and making big pre contracts. Farmers went full FOMO. Now many missed last yrs rally and will now miss this yrs crop as well and be faced with buyouts. The farm boards are already lobbying for a percentage change to Ag Stab.

Instead of fall contracting, I put my crop insurance up to max.

Still selling last yrs durum and lentils today. Polishing up the locks for the bins.

[dustnbones]

6 MMT would be 11.77 bpa - half of 2002 - that's not likely to happen either. There will be carnage if it does.

the new crush was predicated on US biodiesel requirements that now looks shaky.

The problem with this drought is ....it won't be one and done.

Do you think some of those plants wont go ahead now? Hearing otherwise but wonder myself?
Good point on the drought, if this is a multi year look out.

[LWeber]

People are not seeing the bigger picture here.

There are 5M more acres of canola seeded this yr. .

Canada - Canola
Seeded area (acres)
2016 20,784,044
2017 23,014,100
2018 22,813,200
2019 21,180,900
2020 20,782,600
2021 22,478,500

[jazz]

Canada - Canola
Seeded area (acres)
2016 20,784,044
2017 23,014,100
2018 22,813,200
2019 21,180,900
2020 20,782,600
2021 22,478,500

My mistake, I thought statscan had 25M acres.

Then we should save the fungicide and buy urea because 2022 will be double down.

[Old Cowzilla]

My son stopped in for a few mins , to hot to spray trying after supper. They cover a fair bit of area with different soil types. He said there's a lot of really rough looking canola out there and very few fields that stand out. Just about zero fungicide and not sure why some want it done. Said he could give me a hand on the farm for a while because things where going to get pretty slow. See my neighbor hauling water to his pasture now.

[BreadWinner]

Those fertilizer prices going up won’t scare too many guys into buying this summer if the crop keels over and drys up. Fertilizer in the ground won’t get used up and guys won’t have money to buy more anyways.

[Ache4Acres]

East of Regina

Wow lots of seriously ugly looking canola

Patchy bare ground showing and thin little stems with flowers blasted off

I’ve never played futures market but I need to figure out how really quickly

More heat coming in the forecast

Broke a temp record from 1886 today!

[Partners]

Canola east of Humboldt looks more white flowers than yellow.
Going to be ugly yields..

[ry0972]

With the canola crop condition of the areas I have been the past 2 weeks and the lack of meaningful rain in any forecasts I think total production of 10MMT is more likely than 18 to 20MMT!!!

[LWeber]

With the canola crop condition of the areas I have been the past 2 weeks and the lack of meaningful rain in any forecasts I think total production of 10MMT is more likely than 18 to 20MMT!!!

Seeded area (acres) Average yield (bushels per acre) Production (metric tonnes)
2001 9,455,900 23.7 ...5,017,100
2002 9,579,800 22.2 ...4,520,500
2003 11,702,200 25.8 ...6,771,200
2004 12,894,600 28.1 ...7,673,600
2005 13,269,600 32.7 ...9,483,300
2006 13,055,339 30.7 ...9,000,300
2007 15,771,000 27.1 ...9,611,100
2008 16,163,200 34.7 ...12,644,900
2009 16,529,700 35.3 ...12,898,100
2010 17,585,900 33.3 ...12,788,600
2011 18,989,680 34.3 ...14,608,100
2012 22,176,000 27.9 ...13,868,500
2013 20,445,800 40.2 ...18,551,000
2014 20,899,600 34.9 ...16,410,100
2015 20,784,700 39.2 ...18,376,500
2016 20,784,044 42.3 ...19,599,200
2017 23,014,100 41.3 ...21,458,100
2018 22,813,200 40.6 ...20,724,000
2019 21,180,900 41.4 ...19,607,000
2020 20,782,600 40.1 ...18,719,700
2021 22,478,500 .. ..
__________________________________________________ ______

Here’s some canola math for you on 22,479,000 acres released:
1) 2002 = yield 22.2 bpa = 11.318 MMT
2) 2012 = yield 27.9 bpa = 14.224 MMT
3) 2014 = yield 34.9 bpa = 17.792 MMT
4) Average of the ’02, ’12 and ’14 = 28.33 bpa = 14.432 MMT

[helmsdale]

-4 straight days of 100*f+, and overnight lows of 65-70 with no dew.
-7 straight days exceeding 85*.
-3 days of 20-30mph winds with that heat that blew all last night and finally quit about noon today.
-last rain: 0.23" on june 24th
-june rainfall: 2.55"
-total rainfall since spring thaw: 5"
-snowpack: substantial
-subsoil moisture at seeding: as good as it gets.

Aside from the top 3 points, the remaining should have grown us a *decent* crop had mother nature been more agreeable. It's effing torched now! The damage done in 4 days is absolutely mind boggling. Except for the low spots and water runs, the rest of it is going to be a struggle to get onto the combine header. It wouldn't even be fit to bale.

It seems like the damage doesnt even show up for a few days either. The first 2 real hot days it looked like things were weathering *ok*, and then it just ran into a wall. Even if it rained its ass off now, I dont think this crop is salvagable. Hell, the way this year has gone, it wouldn't surprise me if the clouds opened up and flooded out our low spots.

[quadtrac]

Started off with a good nice looking crop here up until the last few days it looked promising.
Average in this area is 50 bushel or more.

Hoping we can hang onto 25 at the moment but if we don’t see some cooler temperatures and a good soaking rain soon all bets are off.

[LEP]

Seeded area (acres) Average yield (bushels per acre) Production (metric tonnes)
2001 9,455,900 23.7 ...5,017,100
2002 9,579,800 22.2 ...4,520,500
2003 11,702,200 25.8 ...6,771,200
2004 12,894,600 28.1 ...7,673,600
2005 13,269,600 32.7 ...9,483,300
2006 13,055,339 30.7 ...9,000,300
2007 15,771,000 27.1 ...9,611,100
2008 16,163,200 34.7 ...12,644,900
2009 16,529,700 35.3 ...12,898,100
2010 17,585,900 33.3 ...12,788,600
2011 18,989,680 34.3 ...14,608,100
2012 22,176,000 27.9 ...13,868,500
2013 20,445,800 40.2 ...18,551,000
2014 20,899,600 34.9 ...16,410,100
2015 20,784,700 39.2 ...18,376,500
2016 20,784,044 42.3 ...19,599,200
2017 23,014,100 41.3 ...21,458,100
2018 22,813,200 40.6 ...20,724,000
2019 21,180,900 41.4 ...19,607,000
2020 20,782,600 40.1 ...18,719,700
2021 22,478,500 .. ..
__________________________________________________ ______

Here’s some canola math for you on 22,479,000 acres released:
1) 2002 = yield 22.2 bpa = 11.318 MMT
2) 2012 = yield 27.9 bpa = 14.224 MMT
3) 2014 = yield 34.9 bpa = 17.792 MMT
4) Average of the ’02, ’12 and ’14 = 28.33 bpa = 14.432 MMT

I agree with a 13 to 15 mmt figure. I am just East of Helmsdale. No Canola looks good. But hopefully there will be something. I have a few bushels booked for fall already. The buyout looks ugly. I looked at buying calls but premiums are huge. Assessing possibilities at his point. Bad or worse are the two options available.