Central Alberta rain

[GDR]

How significant is the hay/pasture shortage, and its effect on grain demand?

Assuming anyone with livestock would have to make the decision to turn some crops into feed.

The price of hay should motivate some straight grain farmers to do the same?

If not, then there will be a lot more demand for feed grains to fill in the gap.

So, not only will there be a shortage of feed next winter, but if( when ) the pasture season gets cut short, the shortage gets even more acute.

Assuming not too many herds get liquidated, and with no where to liquidate to ( as there would be in a regional drought situation), that probably isn't a great option.

I haven't done the math. Is the additional cow feed component of grain demand a drop in the bucket compared to the usual markets, or a big deal?

AF5 there are pastures here not far from you that should have cows pulled off but guys got no where to put them. Cereals are thin and short, are not even good options for turning into feed. Not sure what a gonna happen, and I do think there are places much worse off than here.

Gonna be hard on calf prices with $7 barley if there is enough supply of that in the first place. Feedlots may be short of silage also.

[sumdumguy]

We’re looking for one of those orange and red blobs to come cruising up here from Minneapolis. The rain dance starts tomorrow morning at 12 a.m.

[woodland]

AF5 there are pastures here not far from you that should have cows pulled off but guys got no where to put them. Cereals are thin and short, are not even good options for turning into feed. Not sure what a gonna happen, and I do think there are places much worse off than here.

Gonna be hard on calf prices with $7 barley if there is enough supply of that in the first place. Feedlots may be short of silage also.

Hay is $180/t delivered around here a I think that’s a floor price going forward. Most cereals are short, thin, or dying around here so there’s not much value in them to chop or combine. Anyone who has no carryover feed will definitely be in a pickle. My phone has been getting a call a day for hay from folks that I hardly know. It’s going to be a long summer and even longer winter for a lot of cows that are running out of green grass.

$7 barley sure sucks the fun (and moolah) out of feeding any type of moo moos………..🍀

[AlbertaFarmer5]

AF5 there are pastures here not far from you that should have cows pulled off but guys got no where to put them. Cereals are thin and short, are not even good options for turning into feed. Not sure what a gonna happen, and I do think there are places much worse off than here.

Gonna be hard on calf prices with $7 barley if there is enough supply of that in the first place. Feedlots may be short of silage also.

Aren't there only about 4 options?

1) silage/bale/graze failed crops as is.
2) Wait until the crop is harvested and feed the grain and the straw.
3) Rail in corn from Northern US as we have done in the past when we were short
4) Butcher the cows( sheep/horses/bison etc)

Both 1 and 2 further reduce already tight supplies.
Don't see #3 happening, at least not from ND, SD etc. all in the midst of a drought as bad as ours.
How much further can we source grain by rail before the freight is prohibitive?

In past droughts that I remember, there were always regions in better shape. Cows were sold or wintered elsewhere, feed was moved great distances. My neighbor silaged everything and custom wintered cows. Lots of cheap droughted out Saskatchewan cows have been bought and fed here. In 2002, locals sourced hay and straw from southern Alberta. Not sure that is possible looking at the drought map right now. My little pocket looks like a bright spot, but not very big, and even here, older hay looks very poor.

[GDR]

Aren't there only about 4 options?

1) silage/bale/graze failed crops as is.
2) Wait until the crop is harvested and feed the grain and the straw.
3) Rail in corn from Northern US as we have done in the past when we were short
4) Butcher the cows( sheep/horses/bison etc)

Both 1 and 2 further reduce already tight supplies.
Don't see #3 happening, at least not from ND, SD etc. all in the midst of a drought as bad as ours.
How much further can we source grain by rail before the freight is prohibitive?

In past droughts that I remember, there were always regions in better shape. Cows were sold or wintered elsewhere, feed was moved great distances. My neighbor silaged everything and custom wintered cows. Lots of cheap droughted out Saskatchewan cows have been bought and fed here. In 2002, locals sourced hay and straw from southern Alberta. Not sure that is possible looking at the drought map right now. My little pocket looks like a bright spot, but not very big, and even here, older hay looks very poor.

I'm sure you are correct that there will be some acres used as stock feed that were intended for grain. I suspect there will be a big cull this year, already happening with sheep and likely cows starting too, replacements will be very low. Negative short term on prices but long term should provide opportunities for those that can make it through. Also think the calf run will be early this year.

As far as the impact on grain supplies yes for sure, but we all figured out how to get through those bse years with small budgets, that will happen again. Hay quality likely up even though quantity is down. Lots of crop residue will be fed. Dad used to have a chaff saver on his combine, would be handy in a year like this.

Biggest impact will be feedlot alley and their feed needs, here's hoping fat cattle futures justify high grain prices and high calf prices.

[TASFarms]

The price of meat in the store says they can feed high priced grain

[shtferbrains]

The"they"is the packers as they have ALL the margin.
They will make sure they get fed no matter what weights they come in at as they need the chain fill the get the windfall profits.
Must be a bit concern with the big cull for next years calf crop.
All those cull cows will be another salmon run for them.