Grains Looking Weak

[wheatking16]

Wheat, Corn & Soybeans looking weak

https://klarenbach.substack.com/p/wheat-corn-and-beans https://klarenbach.substack.com/p/wheat-corn-and-beans

Wheat Futures broke the trendline from June 2020


Corn broke the trendline from August 2020


Soybeans catching a bounce after breaking the trendline from Augut 2020

[helmsdale]

GFS punched moisture into the next 10 days for corn areas and alot of the drought stricken wheat areas. Personally I dont think HRS can be saved, but possibly still hope for corn?

Some Traders talking it up as significant drought relief, so weather premium is disappearing.

Other traders saying its beyond saving as damage has been done.

Time will tell who's right...

[Sodbuster]

Hope the grain companies and traders pound grains and oilseeds down, create more demand and when it does come back and they finally realize that this drought is real, prices will rocket up again. I’m in no hurry to market 2021 crop yet and I’m sure bin space won’t be a problem this year. Still holding a fair bit of oats yet but think that will come back too.

[furrowtickler]

I know we sure as heck will not be pricing anything now till the combines roll on what’s worth combining.

[helmsdale]

I know we sure as heck will not be pricing anything now till the combines roll on what’s worth combining.

This time of year I've usually got a pretty firm, "if it doesnt rain" floor on yield. You can market off of that estimate.

Yield floor this year as of now? Right close to zero is a real possibility.

[helmsdale]

MGEX got clubbed like a baby seal today... -$0.5525/bu

[bucket]

MGEX got clubbed like a baby seal today... -$0.5525/bu

Yup demand should pick up and they still won't be able to find the supply from western Canada...

How about that export sales reporting?????

Little late to plant wheat here...so where will they find it...when feed wheat is a better price everyday without the extra hassle at the elevator...

Protein or not.

[shtferbrains]

To establish a price you need a seller and a buyer.
Who are the sellers and are they selling product or just paper?

[agstar77]

Some of the early wheat going white. That cannot be good.

[Ooofty]

Early seeded in southern Alberta is drying up like crazy. Heard some guys will be combining south of the number three highway somewhere.

[Wheatking]

I know if I had any contracts I was concerned about filling I'd take this dip in prices as an opportunity to buy out the contracts. And do not let the elevator salesman talk you out of it. Buy those contracts back ASAP, it will only get worse from here on out.

[BreadWinner]

I don’t think most companies will let you buy out production contracts unless crop insurance writes off the crop. That’s the shitty part about signing contracts, you can’t get out till it’s too late.

[farming101]

I don’t think most companies will let you buy out production contracts unless crop insurance writes off the crop. That’s the shitty part about signing contracts, you can’t get out till it’s too late.

Correct

[Wheatking]

I don’t think most companies will let you buy out production contracts unless crop insurance writes off the crop. That’s the shitty part about signing contracts, you can’t get out till it’s too late.

I think it was 2011-12 the last time I had to buy out a contract due to flooding. The guy at the elevator told me to wait and wait and wait as I maybe I'll find a way to fill it. Well what would of maybe gained me some money if I did it when I suspected I may be in trouble, cost me $100,000 when I delivered what pittance I had that was chicken feed, and couldn't fill in the majority of the contract. And to add insult to injury the administration fees where astronomical, much more than what it would of cost to buy it back on the board using a broker.

I haven't had to deal with it since so I'm not real sure on the in and outs of buying out a contract. Should be illegal to not be given the option to buy out a contract for little more than the current price and contracted price.