Friday Crop Report on a Thursday!

[SASKFARMER]

Nothing more depressing for a farmer than to watch his crop slowly die. It seems the weather experts always have you feeling happy 7 days out then as the rain event approaches it just fizzles away but good news there is another one 7 days out to keep you sane. Looks shitty now the next three days as whats a 60 to 30% chance of getting hit by lightning. Haven't seen any all year.

It's time to park the sprayer and head to the lake so you don't have to lose your mind watching the crop try to survive.

Total rain has been ok with an inch in April two in May and one in June but with the dry conditions that started last July, you can now start to see problems developing. One nice thing with drought you just give up vs flooding you keep trying to win and end up losing.

Here is the crop report for the first week of July.

The heat was awful from Thursday to Sunday for our area. Each day you could see the plants wilting earlier and later into the night. Then a recovery of sorts but still dropping leaves and brown patches developing. Then thank god we had a cool Monday to Thursday and for some reason, the plants did recover. But now we are in a chance of rain but if we miss I fear this time the next heatwave we won't come out of very well. Total Rain for the week was the famous 1/10. or a tenth or piss all.

HRS is trying to head and will be really short. Plants when stressed mature real fast they have a job to make seeds for life and will do anything to get that seed produced even if it's just one seed per head. We sprayed fungicide on our Starbucks that looks ok so far but on better dirt. Out of al our wheat, I would call today 1/3 poor 1/3 having some issues and 1/3 holding on. If you had 70 to 90 yields last year this year by the size of the head spikelets are less averaging 10 to 12 instead of 14 to 16. So even with the rain, it would need to fill 10 rows to make the yield up. The big yield has left the building now were working on half last year or just above that but with heat coming and piss, all chance of rain I would say we're probably looking at a below-average crop so far. Funny just hauled out a big bin and a half of last year's wheat. Might not fill the four this year. Most are doing the odd good field or seed for fungicides and going camping.

Barley is taking it on the chin the heads are forming and pushing out but without a good rain filling could be a problem some areas have gone backward really fast so far were hanging in but the potential for yield the last three years is gone.

Lentils look ok and have the first app of fungicide now the podding stage will they produce or just give up.

Peas did not like the heat I repeat the peas did not like the heat I repeat the peas did not like the heat and have quit flowering or just sitting doing absolutely nothing. One guy had a nice crop sprayed and they quit flowering the next morning and never came back. The yield will behalf if we're lucky.

Oats is also just starting to poke a head and like all the others is pushing fast and furious.

Flax none are flowering and they are patchy but trying.

Canola has anyone out in Sask have a 10 out of 10 Canola field because I haven't seen any so far. Odd one looks good till you stop and walk in then it's not what you think. I feel sorry for some of the experts you thought I was wrong last year with yield and your massive crops were right well this year I haven't done my crop tour yet but I can see in the travels I do the 60 plus is gone and were approaching the 30 and lower each day. Can you say 12 mt crops stay tuned because rain could save some fields that arent flowering yet or just started but the early will just finish and make pods with what it has. No one is spraying fungicides and I got to keep my test plot field and don't have to complete it. Oh, one note, in the dry conditions you can see lots of chemical residue showing up. Yea just like the 80s it's back.

Hay is great on new fields alfalfa gave more bales than last year's first-year first cut. The third-year field looks good but then it drops after that.

Pasture is going backward real fast.

So to sum up the week high ugly heat then three cool days to recover with a chance of rain hahahahah and then back to heat to put the final nail in the coffin.

I'm heading to fish this weekend as it no license fishing in Saskatchewan weekend. **** this crop the potential is gone now were in just breaking even events.

Be safe talk to anyone who will listen your not alone, to the odd guy who caught a shower count your lucky stars. To the experts that think we have a huge crop and the drought really isn't affecting crops take a drive from Yorkton to Calgary and you will soon see the only sweet spot on that drive is from maybe Edgely to Moosejaw then you won't see nice till Strathmore. HAve a great day and maybe take a knee for rain.

[SASKFARMER]

Barley



Starbucks my best wheat



Still might have a chance but some is past the recovery if it rained.


New toy arrived.
Has some awesome features like a ivt type transmission only needs the engine to speed up under a load. Flat fields 1360 rpm big hill 2200.

[SASKFARMER]

Chem carry over



Drought poor areas



Bales year two



Hay year three

[Robertbarlage]

Get Another hot week with no rain, can just stay at Lake till freeze up.

[furrowtickler]

Crops are beginning to be wrote off east and NE of here .
Canola and peas are in the biggest trouble followed by barley.
Some canola ok , about 2/10 fields that established well and had good weed control on heavier land .
All lighter land in area is burning up regardless of crop.

Planes were flying Sunday through yesterday, all fungicides .
Seed growers it may make sense to preserve quality.
Certified wheat , barley, peas , lentils and flax will be worth a fortune next spring .
We are seeing zero disease in anything but drought stress is showing hard in poor soil areas .
Impossible for most crop disease to show up in these conditions, especially canola.
Wheat midge in area for 5 days , in pockets .
Grasshoppers have started , noticeably yesterday.
Hopefully no diamond backs or berthas but bug issues should be by far the main concern over fungicides.
In drought years bugs will take 10x yield over any possible disease .
Virtually no rain in forecast and temperatures look to be 28-30 for the foreseeable future.
Crop yields will be off 40% from potential 10 days ago and falling 1-2% per day or more now .
Canola planted on 15 in space at 2 lbs held on remarkably well with lower plant populations.
Only time will tell how anything will finish out but everyday crops are being written off in many areas of western Canada .
That June 20th frost in many areas caused significant damage and those crop simply could not recover and make the heat and lack of rain . There was no mention anywhere of that frost event .... imagine that

[SASKFARMER]

Oh one thing that pissed me off the local crop specialist for sask ag need up get out of the office and do their job.
Weyburn lady must be high on crack because telling the reporter it’s a way bigger crop than last year is insane. The Manitoba guy they interview is right on. We’re dry and crops are going backwards not like sask we know we’re ducked so let’s tell them all is good. Barcharts report of 42 average wheat yields for sask is above last years number by a bit like that will ducking happen.
I can’t wait for our ag minister to make it sound so good today only a few pockets are dry and we had some rain somewhere in sask some square mile had a down pour so all is good.

Or on the wire Canada’s crop isn’t as bad as they are saying but you can’t get into canada because our border is shut.

[Guest]

even the NE swamp has dried out
canola started turning brown yesterday , there is no coming back from this
many crops in the province will not be harvested, the best one can hope for is a rain that will make some greenfeed for these poor animals that are gonna run out of feed , same as 02
canary seed south of town is finished
anyone that thinks there is big croo in Sask is an outright liar or just plain stupid
we listened to their BS last year and sold some canola for $10.50 in july
don't be conned again
there is a fire ban and should be a fungicide ban too, saw a guy spraying canola yesterday that will be lucky to be combined , WTF is wrong with people?

[furrowtickler]

One thing is for certain , next years inputs are going to be up 30-50% . Nitrogen already up to over $400 from $260 for 28-0-0 . Glyphosate will be way up as will most other herbicides.
All seed costs will be near double except canola , i believe canola seed will not change much at all as it was pushed to a ceiling a few years ago unless your going after the newest variety the new expensive seed treatments , otherwise prices probably will not change much .
Fuel will be up , machinery prices already gone to bizarre levels .

Very concerned that any possible gains most of us were hoping for with decent crop prices will be ate up with way overpriced inputs and reduced crop yields.
In some areas crop insurance may cover expenses but will be left with massive spending to get next years crop in the ground . Cut backs will happen in inputs but there are only so many ways to trim expenses .
To anyone who is still calling for record profits for farms ....... you need to seriously look at what’s going on , 80% of crops in western Canada are in trouble and many areas are already gone .
Or you simply have no clue at all what your talking about .
Crops need to be harvested before they are worth anything. Growing crops at the mercy of the weather is 100% different than dairy or poultry production where supply is always there. The two sectors are not even remotely close .
High crop prices right now are nearly meaningless, like a lotto ticket .... zero guarantee .

Hopefully some areas can get close to average
A few pockets right now are very good
Most areas are in very big trouble

Rains now are far too late for the worst affected areas
This area about 50/50 if a decent rain happens within the next few days but chances are slim .

[Guest]

two more weeks of heat forecasted for here

[jazz]

Very concerned that any possible gains most of us were hoping for with decent crop prices will be ate up with way overpriced inputs and reduced crop yields. .

Massive opportunity lost in Canadian Ag in the past yr. Poor marketing info caused guys to dump crop before the winter rally, now with bins empty and unlikely to get 50% of their typical yield.

And the forward contracting that was pushed by the grain companies must have caught a lot of guys too. Are there going to be contract defaults.

I know farmers are steely eyed to be in this business but that has to be testing some guys mentally.

[Sheepwheat]

Crops in this pocket are the best I’ve seen anywhere, but I don’t know how long they can hold on. A few miles west and you can see barley headed in low spots, and just beards poking in higher areas. Ive never seen that before. I don’t know if it will finish heading or what? If it rains here, there will be a Very small pocket of bumpers. Like four miles by three miles. If it doesn’t, I assume big potential turns into nearly nothing fast, as a big crop sucks the soil dry fast. Canola here hanging on the best, then wheat, then barley and oats. Peas look bad, flax looks worse.

Good news is they put rain back in the forecast. Here one day, gone the next, then back in. Who’s running that scam anyway?

Anyone with a crop, get ready to cash in, because I have never seen the likes. If it’s dry here, to the point of being visible from the road, it’s gotta be bad overall.

[tubs]

One thing is for certain , next years inputs are going to be up 30-50% . Nitrogen already up to over $400 from $260 for 28-0-0 . Glyphosate will be way up as will most other herbicides.
All seed costs will be near double except canola , i believe canola seed will not change much at all as it was pushed to a ceiling a few years ago unless your going after the newest variety the new expensive seed treatments , otherwise prices probably will not change much .
Fuel will be up , machinery prices already gone to bizarre levels .

Very concerned that any possible gains most of us were hoping for with decent crop prices will be ate up with way overpriced inputs and reduced crop yields.
In some areas crop insurance may cover expenses but will be left with massive spending to get next years crop in the ground . Cut backs will happen in inputs but there are only so many ways to trim expenses .
To anyone who is still calling for record profits for farms ....... you need to seriously look at what’s going on , 80% of crops in western Canada are in trouble and many areas are already gone .
Or you simply have no clue at all what your talking about .
Crops need to be harvested before they are worth anything. Growing crops at the mercy of the weather is 100% different than dairy or poultry production where supply is always there. The two sectors are not even remotely close .
High crop prices right now are nearly meaningless, like a lotto ticket .... zero guarantee .

Hopefully some areas can get close to average
A few pockets right now are very good
Most areas are in very big trouble

Rains now are far too late for the worst affected areas
This area about 50/50 if a decent rain happens within the next few days but chances are slim .

I was quoted 435 for 28 0 0 yesterday out of Stettler AB

[Partners]

Some crops look ok.
Some are brutal..
Canola north of foam lake should make 10 b/a.
Varies from mile to mile.
Neighbor who got 2.5 inches was spraying his bly yesterday.
Best investment this yr was getting AC in the house..
Love it..

[helmsdale]

7/10ths of rain last 3 days. Maybe itll help fill the paltry stand tests there?

It's so damned dry that I scratched the surface on some stuff here thre other day and rain only made it down about an inch. I doubt it does much good as those roots haven't been dragging up moisture for going on 3-4 weeks.

Peas here are putting 2, and sometimes 3 in a pod. Plenty of cooked plants with no pods whatsoever. Yield guess? There might be one or two 15bu crops in the neighborhood, but rest are going to be below 10.

Cereals are in serious distress. Recent rain will *hopefully* help to fill or plump up what remains. If an inch shows up in next 10 days, there may be a couple 17-20s cut. If no rain theres going to be alot below 15.

Oilseeds are unmitigated garbage. Most if not all will be below 15. Alot will be below 10.

Forage... lots of guys estimating they're going to be looking for 2/3rds of their feed requirements. And that assumes regular start and finish dates for feeding. Cows are all in low spots that held water this spring eating the last few blades of green grass. Nearly all sloughs are dry, and dugouts are LOW!

Alot of low hanging heads around town!

[6V53]

I've noticed quite a few fields of canola that should be getting a shot of 24D asap.