Friday Crop Report on a Thursday!

[Sheepwheat]

Crops in this pocket are the best I’ve seen anywhere, but I don’t know how long they can hold on. A few miles west and you can see barley headed in low spots, and just beards poking in higher areas. Ive never seen that before. I don’t know if it will finish heading or what? If it rains here, there will be a Very small pocket of bumpers. Like four miles by three miles. If it doesn’t, I assume big potential turns into nearly nothing fast, as a big crop sucks the soil dry fast. Canola here hanging on the best, then wheat, then barley and oats. Peas look bad, flax looks worse.

Good news is they put rain back in the forecast. Here one day, gone the next, then back in. Who’s running that scam anyway?

Anyone with a crop, get ready to cash in, because I have never seen the likes. If it’s dry here, to the point of being visible from the road, it’s gotta be bad overall.

[tubs]

One thing is for certain , next years inputs are going to be up 30-50% . Nitrogen already up to over $400 from $260 for 28-0-0 . Glyphosate will be way up as will most other herbicides.
All seed costs will be near double except canola , i believe canola seed will not change much at all as it was pushed to a ceiling a few years ago unless your going after the newest variety the new expensive seed treatments , otherwise prices probably will not change much .
Fuel will be up , machinery prices already gone to bizarre levels .

Very concerned that any possible gains most of us were hoping for with decent crop prices will be ate up with way overpriced inputs and reduced crop yields.
In some areas crop insurance may cover expenses but will be left with massive spending to get next years crop in the ground . Cut backs will happen in inputs but there are only so many ways to trim expenses .
To anyone who is still calling for record profits for farms ....... you need to seriously look at what’s going on , 80% of crops in western Canada are in trouble and many areas are already gone .
Or you simply have no clue at all what your talking about .
Crops need to be harvested before they are worth anything. Growing crops at the mercy of the weather is 100% different than dairy or poultry production where supply is always there. The two sectors are not even remotely close .
High crop prices right now are nearly meaningless, like a lotto ticket .... zero guarantee .

Hopefully some areas can get close to average
A few pockets right now are very good
Most areas are in very big trouble

Rains now are far too late for the worst affected areas
This area about 50/50 if a decent rain happens within the next few days but chances are slim .

I was quoted 435 for 28 0 0 yesterday out of Stettler AB

[Partners]

Some crops look ok.
Some are brutal..
Canola north of foam lake should make 10 b/a.
Varies from mile to mile.
Neighbor who got 2.5 inches was spraying his bly yesterday.
Best investment this yr was getting AC in the house..
Love it..

[helmsdale]

7/10ths of rain last 3 days. Maybe itll help fill the paltry stand tests there?

It's so damned dry that I scratched the surface on some stuff here thre other day and rain only made it down about an inch. I doubt it does much good as those roots haven't been dragging up moisture for going on 3-4 weeks.

Peas here are putting 2, and sometimes 3 in a pod. Plenty of cooked plants with no pods whatsoever. Yield guess? There might be one or two 15bu crops in the neighborhood, but rest are going to be below 10.

Cereals are in serious distress. Recent rain will *hopefully* help to fill or plump up what remains. If an inch shows up in next 10 days, there may be a couple 17-20s cut. If no rain theres going to be alot below 15.

Oilseeds are unmitigated garbage. Most if not all will be below 15. Alot will be below 10.

Forage... lots of guys estimating they're going to be looking for 2/3rds of their feed requirements. And that assumes regular start and finish dates for feeding. Cows are all in low spots that held water this spring eating the last few blades of green grass. Nearly all sloughs are dry, and dugouts are LOW!

Alot of low hanging heads around town!

[6V53]

I've noticed quite a few fields of canola that should be getting a shot of 24D asap.

[blackpowder]

Hate to use the word average.
In general, depending on weather in next month, as of today, we will be just over our coverages.
Told my banker this am, seen it before, every low cycle we stop spending a little too late LoL.
Young guys laugh when I tell them I used to use baler twine and binder wire instead of zip ties. They might see it yet.
Hoping fert goes down by winter.

[Guest]

Like this
This particular one is fetching $80/ac cash rent

I've noticed quite a few fields of canola that should be getting a shot of 24D asap.

[Guest]

21 MMT ? , better than last year ?
What a sick joke
After this next dry windy heat blast she might be 5MMT , down from 11 where it probably is right now
Why aren’t these loudmouths made to explain ??

[Sodbuster]

By the end of next week with no rain in the forecast and temperatures in the upper 20’s a lot of us will be hoping for hail. We have had 4” of rain to date with the last one .4” on June 19th, all cereals headed out and canola in full bloom, crop going backwards every day. Will be interesting to see if the early seeders fair better than the late seeders or those that had to reseed their canola.

[BreadWinner]

There are some $85/acre fields rented from the largest Saskatchewan land Barron that are looking pretty bleak. They will lucky to get enough out of it to pay the rent.