Canola markets

[Rareearth]

The last time there was drought the big exporters declared force majour (act of god) and cancelled all export sales then the market went higher. That pissed a lot of end users off.

I guess the exporters will have to import more canola this year, like they did this spring (so they can... reexport it? Likely keep crushers going though)

And what are the crush margins $250 ton?...?

I dont think the exporters should be short selling the growers! What happens if there is a drought ? I guess we will find out. They should be covering on the futures market in times like this, but are they?

[farming101]

Crush margin for the Oct-Dec time frame is about 48 CAD. Down from 180 or so a month ago

[farming101]

Limit up in all months out till July 2022

[bucket]

Limit up in all months out till July 2022

If we don't see substantial rain this fall after the paltry harvest...canola could go to 100 bucks a bushel...who would risk growing it.. I am not sure rains would grow a canola crop next year with the predictions of 2022 being worse than 2021.

This tank is empty . No fumes...it's rusting ....

[farming101]

If there is no significant moisture recharge going into 2022 there will be a lot of summerfallow

[agstar77]

If you presold and won't have a crop way past time to get out of your contract.

[bucket]

If you presold and won't have a crop way past time to get out of your contract.

ALot of guys are saying their spring burnoff was a bust...even the weeds were not growing and taking in chemical ...now they are saying the in crop would have worked if the rain came to get the crop ahead...

Bottom line the weeds are coming with these rains as the 2 tenths desiccate the crop.

Many green fields turned brown over the last few days with heavy dews and small showers .

Much like cutting hay it will stay green until moisture hits it.

[TASFarms]

Anyone have canola plants with full pods?

[Rareearth]

No

“ The USDA in its oilseed report today cut its estimate of Canadian canola production from 2020 to 2021 by 5.9% from its June report at 19.0 MMT...but that number still seems overly optimistic. The USDA raised Canada's exports by almost 4% at 10.5 MMT. Ending stocks, which are higher than those from Agriculture Canada, were increased 12.4% at 1.18 MMT, which seems completely out to lunch...think ending stocks closer to near an impossibly tight 500,000 tonnes for the current market year and also for new crop 2021-22 “

Today I'm cutting my canola yield forecast for 2021 by 30% ( that might be optimistic?)compared to last years 2020 drought impacted production, its a “ dry oil”.
The increase in ending stocks likely equal the canola crush capacity from Aug 1 until new crop is normally available, but likely too high depending how many tons the exporters were planning to ship in August before new crop is available?

Is any one going to have a crop that is equal to last years production or even close?
Expect the usda to revise lower next time around.

[biglentil]

It's gonna be an eye opener when the combines hit the field. Many might think the yield monitor is bust at 1st.