Canola markets

[furrowtickler]

Reality kicking in again

[farming101]

Nov continuous took out the July 2/21 record. Limit up.
This year's prices have taken out the Mar08 Nov continuous record by nearly 10%. So far.

[farming101]

Normally another gap higher on Monday would be ringing the overbought alarm but this isn't normal

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Is there any precedent for western Canadian grain markets to chart their own course in a weather market such as this?

It seems the US markets are satisfied that the eastern corn belt will be good enough to make up for the western and northern drought, and are drifting lower. Wheat prices are being thrown out like the proverbial baby with the bath water. In spite of the fact that almost the entire spring wheat crop is severely affected by drought, so as of today, we can't expect much of a lift from US markets.

So if we are drastically short on canola and feed grains, can the ICE market go its own way as it appears to be doing now? Palm oil and soybean oil are supportive again lately. Can the equivalent of basis do the job on feed grains? It is a long way to rail or truck corn from the eastern corn belt.
Is there a substitute for wheat in feed rations?

If there are a lot of contracts needing to be bought out does that necessarily have to translate to higher producer prices? Or is that entirely a paper game?

[Partners]

20 bucks off combine , for anyone with a crop.

[Old Cowzilla]

20 bucks off combine , for anyone with a crop.

As long as they have those $ 12.00 January contacts covered !

[WiltonRanch]

As long as they have those $ 12.00 January contacts covered !

Ouch!

[TASFarms]

Even some $11 contracts out there

[Ronski]

Even some $11 contracts out there

And here I was feeling bad for starting at 14.50. I feel bad for guys who may have to buy themselves out.

[GDR]

Is there any precedent for western Canadian grain markets to chart their own course in a weather market such as this?

It seems the US markets are satisfied that the eastern corn belt will be good enough to make up for the western and northern drought, and are drifting lower. Wheat prices are being thrown out like the proverbial baby with the bath water. In spite of the fact that almost the entire spring wheat crop is severely affected by drought, so as of today, we can't expect much of a lift from US markets.

So if we are drastically short on canola and feed grains, can the ICE market go its own way as it appears to be doing now? Palm oil and soybean oil are supportive again lately. Can the equivalent of basis do the job on feed grains? It is a long way to rail or truck corn from the eastern corn belt.
Is there a substitute for wheat in feed rations?

If there are a lot of contracts needing to be bought out does that necessarily have to translate to higher producer prices? Or is that entirely a paper game?

The other question you need to ask is how high do Canadian prices have to get before buyers give up on trying to fill boats with short supply and high prices and start shopping elsewhere?

[Sheepwheat]

The other question you need to ask is how high do Canadian prices have to get before buyers give up on trying to fill boats with short supply and high prices and start shopping elsewhere?

Exactly.

[povertyplains]

Exactly.

That's already starting to happen and quite frankly needs to happen. Locals crushers will get there 10 million as today they have the strongest margin. There simply isn't enough at this point to have anywhere near the export program from the past two years.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

The other question you need to ask is how high do Canadian prices have to get before buyers give up on trying to fill boats with short supply and high prices and start shopping elsewhere?

Depends if the buyers have any other options where they can shop.
For wheat, there are lots of options, and they will likely all be cheaper this year.
For feed grain, there looks to be almost adequate corn supplies in the US, putting a lid on export opportunities for our feed barley. I suspect it may mostly be used domestically for feed at this rate though?
Malt barley We are one of the bigger exporters, can't find the numbers a the moment.
Canola, as I noted in a previous thread, we produce more than double all the other exporters combined. And the US areas that grow canola are all in the same drought we are. Not a lot of other places to source canola. And a lot of food manufacturers have staked their reputations on using healthy canola oil, where do they go now?
I believe we are the primary exporter of many of the minor crops and pulse crops in the world.

We grow a lot of unique crops here thanks to our climate, that just can't be sourced elsewhere in the world.

[Old Cowzilla]

Crusher margins will likely get even better because of meal demand to help bump up poor feed rations. Tub grinders can only perform so much magic gonna need a boost to keep livestock on the farms. After sharing a box of beer with neighbors its amazing how much 12 and 13 dollar canola was sold

[furrowtickler]

Crusher margins will likely get even better because of meal demand to help bump up poor feed rations. Tub grinders can only perform so much magic gonna need a boost to keep livestock on the farms. After sharing a box of beer with neighbors its amazing how much 12 and 13 dollar canola was sold

There was lots , but after the past three years of what we all now know we’re very suppressed canola prices 12-14 was the best we have all seen in years off combine . Hind sight is 20/20 as is terrible long term weather forecasts

Add in complete lies of huge carry overs