Canola markets

[AlbertaFarmer5]

The other question you need to ask is how high do Canadian prices have to get before buyers give up on trying to fill boats with short supply and high prices and start shopping elsewhere?

Depends if the buyers have any other options where they can shop.
For wheat, there are lots of options, and they will likely all be cheaper this year.
For feed grain, there looks to be almost adequate corn supplies in the US, putting a lid on export opportunities for our feed barley. I suspect it may mostly be used domestically for feed at this rate though?
Malt barley We are one of the bigger exporters, can't find the numbers a the moment.
Canola, as I noted in a previous thread, we produce more than double all the other exporters combined. And the US areas that grow canola are all in the same drought we are. Not a lot of other places to source canola. And a lot of food manufacturers have staked their reputations on using healthy canola oil, where do they go now?
I believe we are the primary exporter of many of the minor crops and pulse crops in the world.

We grow a lot of unique crops here thanks to our climate, that just can't be sourced elsewhere in the world.

[Old Cowzilla]

Crusher margins will likely get even better because of meal demand to help bump up poor feed rations. Tub grinders can only perform so much magic gonna need a boost to keep livestock on the farms. After sharing a box of beer with neighbors its amazing how much 12 and 13 dollar canola was sold

[furrowtickler]

Crusher margins will likely get even better because of meal demand to help bump up poor feed rations. Tub grinders can only perform so much magic gonna need a boost to keep livestock on the farms. After sharing a box of beer with neighbors its amazing how much 12 and 13 dollar canola was sold

There was lots , but after the past three years of what we all now know we’re very suppressed canola prices 12-14 was the best we have all seen in years off combine . Hind sight is 20/20 as is terrible long term weather forecasts

Add in complete lies of huge carry overs

[Guest]

Even some $11 contracts out there

Yes there is

[TOM4CWB]

Yes there is

This drought may be tougher on domestic crushers than you sayb/are thinking.

Export contracted sales on the books will be very tough for elevator companies to get out of... buy backs would cost them big time as well...

thinking outside the box...

It will be interesting to see how many Canola 2021 sales contracts get rolled into 2022...

Cheers

[TASFarms]

How much new crop got sold to China. Must be a substantial amount. No big deal China cancels contracts a lot.

[Wheatking]

This drought may be tougher on domestic crushers than you sayb/are thinking.

Export contracted sales on the books will be very tough for elevator companies to get out of... buy backs would cost them big time as well...

thinking outside the box...

It will be interesting to see how many Canola 2021 sales contracts get rolled into 2022...

Cheers

Not sure I'd take the risk of deferring any cheques this year. This is going to be tough on everyone, feed lots, maltsters, line companies. Get that cheque and put it in the bank before it bounces.

[bucket]

This drought may be tougher on domestic crushers than you sayb/are thinking.

Export contracted sales on the books will be very tough for elevator companies to get out of... buy backs would cost them big time as well...

thinking outside the box...

It will be interesting to see how many Canola 2021 sales contracts get rolled into 2022...

Cheers

Tom

What export sales????

Farmers are not privy to that info...maybe farmers would help graincos if they would let us in on some info like export sales...rather than guessing on both sides.

Export sales reporting would help both sides...

I think domestic sales should be done as well..

If done right it should straighten up statscan numbers quicker than 2 years after the fact.

[Rareearth]

The last time there was drought the big exporters declared force majour (act of god) and cancelled all export sales then the market went higher. That pissed a lot of end users off.

I guess the exporters will have to import more canola this year, like they did this spring (so they can... reexport it? Likely keep crushers going though)

And what are the crush margins $250 ton?...?

I dont think the exporters should be short selling the growers! What happens if there is a drought ? I guess we will find out. They should be covering on the futures market in times like this, but are they?

[farming101]

Crush margin for the Oct-Dec time frame is about 48 CAD. Down from 180 or so a month ago

[farming101]

Limit up in all months out till July 2022

[bucket]

Limit up in all months out till July 2022

If we don't see substantial rain this fall after the paltry harvest...canola could go to 100 bucks a bushel...who would risk growing it.. I am not sure rains would grow a canola crop next year with the predictions of 2022 being worse than 2021.

This tank is empty . No fumes...it's rusting ....