Canola markets

[Sodbuster]

This crop is getting smaller by the day, 30+ for the next week in our area with no chance of rain that we needed 2 weeks ago. This hot weather is severely affecting flowering and podding, yields will be disappointing. Will definitely not be hedging any canola until it’s all in the bin this year, hopefully not to many producers get caught short. Would not be surprised to see final production numbers sub 15 MMT this year.

[Partners]

Canola flowering nice, but will pods fill?
Guessing 50% less yield than last yr..
Unless it gets burnt to crispy critters this week. Then even less..

[bucket]

This crop is getting smaller by the day, 30+ for the next week in our area with no chance of rain that we needed 2 weeks ago. This hot weather is severely affecting flowering and podding, yields will be disappointing. Will definitely not be hedging any canola until it’s all in the bin this year, hopefully not to many producers get caught short. Would not be surprised to see final production numbers sub 15 MMT this year.

But won't know for two years what the real number is.

You can knock off 250000 tonnes per day right now.

Using a starting point of 20mmt. And after 10 days it would still be too high.

easily sub 13 mmt

[Sodbuster]

Finally we have 5 days of rain in our forecast + smoke, crops will be saved again.

[Guest]

This crop is getting smaller by the day, 30+ for the next week in our area with no chance of rain that we needed 2 weeks ago. This hot weather is severely affecting flowering and podding, yields will be disappointing. Will definitely not be hedging any canola until it’s all in the bin this year, hopefully not to many producers get caught short. Would not be surprised to see final production numbers sub 15 MMT this year.

well it worked out good not pricing any before for you , why start now ?

[furrowtickler]

[jazz]

Ag reps have stopped phoning so it must be bad.

35deg days to finish out the month is a real kick in the nads.

[Guest]

yes furrow
its *** hilarious , you have to put a sign so those whack jobs know!

[farming101]

Price range for the Nov contract today is 829-949. I'm thinking 949 is more likely....was there overnight

[LWeber]

Price range for the Nov contract today is 829-949. I'm thinking 949 is more likely....was there overnight

889-949

[LWeber]

889-949

i see what you did - the range CAN be +/- $60

sorry

[farming101]

i see what you did - the range CAN be +/- $60

sorry

Kinda joking. NOBODY expects to see 829 for a bit. But having said that volatility can really mess a guy up in a hurry

O and I welcome any and all call outs. It's a good way to double and triple check

[TOM4CWB]

I’ve always agreed with your stance on this issue, here’s my sarcastic response.
Why would you want farmers to know that between domestic crush and export sales on the books more is needed than will be produced this year… that would tell us to hold for much better prices and interrupt their supply. It happened last year and cost us millions.

As for Tom’s response about buy back costs, it never really costs the crusher or middle man, it’s always passed down to the farmer. Who do you think pays demurrage fees, I’ll tell you it sure isn’t the grain companies.

jwab,

If you look at history, 2002 was a tough year on Domestic Canola Crushers with historic losses on crush margins.

Since sales margins oil and meal are based;hedged off Soybean futures... this drought could well be as bad for Domestic Canola crushers as it is bad for western Canadian Canola farmers.

Farmer Canola sales hedged and on the books... at $650-750/t are calling $250/t margin calls on the crushers if they couldn't do back to back purchase/sales when Canola farmers presell.

The domestic crusher needs drought insurance as much as farmers! In 2002 some line companies had drought insurance I heard.
Cheers

[helmsdale]

Latest batch of runs at 12Z are brutal.

10 days of heat, and this for total precipitation...

[GDR]

I'm not sure how the canola market is even functioning right now. Who in their right mind would be selling or speculating? Bad areas are pretty well pooched, good areas are a lot closer to being cooked every day that goes by and the really good areas aren't out of the woods yet. There is a point where rain wont help anymore and I think for canola that day is likely within this week.