Canola markets

[Sheepwheat]

And will sunflowers see any resurgence in Sask? Are they not exceptionally drought tolerant? I guess the offset is you suck the soil completely dry for forty feet!

[farming101]

Our canola production hard hit, but our export market / demand is apt to also slide in new crop year. In other words, the entire Cdn canola engine will be smaller over the next year (IMO).

Overall global veg oil production is actually forecast higher this coming year led by sharp gains in sunflower oil plus production gains in Ukraine and Australia. Soyoil prices might slide toward 50 cents/lb over the next few weeks/months according to international analysts.

Canola prices and demand still have to fit into the global supply/demand . . . .

Consumption is forecast to rise too. Ending stocks flat

[bucket]

I am reading errols article in the WP about Ukraine stepping in to try and take market share.

That was always my fear about high prices. EU is one of our major customers other wise we are going to be stuck with china as our only buyer and that sucks.

you would think we have some trade reps out there trying to salvage this market. Maybe some incentives from the seed cos so farmers might take a shot again next yr because if we don't that market could be gone for good.

This drought and the next year will highlight how little farmers have been valued to the economy of this country.

If you experienced the Triffid fiasco in the flax market ...you will already know the industry is more than happy to lose markets to competitors that are more than likely using our genetics..

The overall sentiment with farm groups is that the FSU won't catch up to us...in reality we won't catch up to them now.

[fcr]

Clavet crush plant is behind on contracts. We have half of ours deilivered on a June delivery contract now they are full again Trucker said they are just finishing April deliveries for some farmers. Must be slow demand p.s. this is Csco canola

[WiltonRanch]

I hope we get enough crush capacity for all our production. May as well keep the meal at home for our livestock industry and jobs to boot. Long term it will be more cost effective to process closer to the source of production than abroad. We have enough pitfalls with our rail as it is, and shipping canola oil (40% of the crop) uses a lot less cars. Too bad oil industry didn’t do this 50 years ago more so. Future is in processing at home. Days of cheap freight are coming to an end

[Guest]

I hope we get enough crush capacity for all our production. May as well keep the meal at home for our livestock industry and jobs to boot. Long term it will be more cost effective to process closer to the source of production than abroad. We have enough pitfalls with our rail as it is, and shipping canola oil (40% of the crop) uses a lot less cars. Too bad oil industry didn’t do this 50 years ago more so. Future is in processing at home. Days of cheap freight are coming to an end

It makes perfect sense
If only politicians could figure that out
Grandson got a good summer job at one to help with his tuition
Win/win
Instead these f u c k heads are still tearing up rail lines
That should be a criminal offence

[WiltonRanch]

This drought and the next year will highlight how little farmers have been valued to the economy of this country.

If you experienced the Triffid fiasco in the flax market ...you will already know the industry is more than happy to lose markets to competitors that are more than likely using our genetics..

The overall sentiment with farm groups is that the FSU won't catch up to us...in reality we won't catch up to them now.

FSU certainly has its advantages as much as it has disadvantages. The involvement of the two resident hegemonies to the east is a blessing and a curse for FSU countries. Investment has definitely modernized farming and infrastructure but at what cost to sovereignty? Much of gains in production come from large foreign owned farming corporations. They exist as long as they keep corrupt officials paid off. Even domestic farmers if not hampered by lack of capitol and poor infrastructure are victim of corruption as well. It is no different than renting reserve land with a corrupt chief. Same thing. Guys needing bribes cuts into profits and angering the wrong guys could see you losing your crop, financing, or get locked in jail. Another problem is aging and shrinking populations. Two world wars and Stalin’s purges took the biggest toll on the FSU satellite states. If you were born between 1920 and 1945 there your chance of death was 80%. This ripple is apparent today as countries like Hungary stand to lose 1 million people in the next 10 years because of old age and a decades flat birth rate. So finding enough decent workers outside of Chinese firms bringing in their own workers is an increasing problem.

[bucket]

FSU certainly has its advantages as much as it has disadvantages. The involvement of the two resident hegemonies to the east is a blessing and a curse for FSU countries. Investment has definitely modernized farming and infrastructure but at what cost to sovereignty? Much of gains in production come from large foreign owned farming corporations. They exist as long as they keep corrupt officials paid off. Even domestic farmers if not hampered by lack of capitol and poor infrastructure are victim of corruption as well. It is no different than renting reserve land with a corrupt chief. Same thing. Guys needing bribes cuts into profits and angering the wrong guys could see you losing your crop, financing, or get locked in jail. Another problem is aging and shrinking populations. Two world wars and Stalin’s purges took the biggest toll on the FSU satellite states. If you were born between 1920 and 1945 there your chance of death was 80%. This ripple is apparent today as countries like Hungary stand to lose 1 million people in the next 10 years because of old age and a decades flat birth rate. So finding enough decent workers outside of Chinese firms bringing in their own workers is an increasing problem.

And its coming to Canada's agriculture sector because farmers have been ignored far too long...

This drought is going to shed 55 year olds real quick because they have seen it before and they are not taking a feeler out for another decade of hardship.....son or no son...and who's there waiting to buy them out????


Hutterites, chinese and investment firms...

[furrowtickler]

And its coming to Canada's agriculture sector because farmers have been ignored far too long...

This drought is going to shed 55 year olds real quick because they have seen it before and they are not taking a feeler out for another decade of hardship.....son or no son...and who's there waiting to buy them out????


Hutterites, chinese and investment firms...

Monette.......

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Canola out of sync this morning with all the other grains, what gives?

I would assume profit taking, after pillaging short sold farmers for as much as possible for a few days?

Odd how every . month until Nov 22 is down the exact same amount. Almost as if it had no direction at all, July was down as it goes off the board, so all the other months just followed it in sympathy.

[bucket]

Monette.......

Who is backing Monette ???? Banks/ investment firms/ landlords like Dwayne L that don't want the work because it interrupts having meetings?

[furrowtickler]

Who is backing Monette ???? Banks/ investment firms/ landlords like Dwayne L that don't want the work because it interrupts having meetings?

Not sure , but it’s happening
Investment groups now selling out is the rumour
If true , the “smart” money getting out before the reality hits in after this

[WiltonRanch]

Could see investors liquidating. $100/ac land rent don’t pencil on 25 bu wheat. Imagine these guys will still turn $100 grand a quarter. Imagine that crappy land that large land baron owns and expects $80 might need to take a haircut. Some areas even here if it gets back to dry like the 90’s will need to go back to fallow and poor land seeded back to grass. Doesn’t matter how good of iron or fancy agronomics you employ if soil moisture reserves are spent it don’t grow. I was fortunate to start my career in the midst of the worst dry period this farm has had in 115 years. Some of these younger guys around haven’t seen it or forget it. Only way you get by is cut costs and fallow some. Tough getting landlords to see it though. In 2002 the only crops harvested were on fallow. Right now we have plenty of subsoil moisture and crops holding on with sparse showers. If there is no recharge before next crop this area will be same boat as the rest of the province. There’s a world of hurt coming.

[helmsdale]

Some of these younger guys around haven’t seen it or forget it. Only way you get by is cut costs and fallow some. Tough getting landlords to see it though.

There’s a world of hurt coming.

Was a couple years ago that a few guys younger than me had themselves believing that they would never harvest less than 20bu/ac durum ever again! Farming was WAY different! Min Till, Fertilizer, Snake Oil, Agronomists on call, etc etc.

She'll be two years running now that they combine less than 10.

Gonna be more than a few wondering whether their ass is being punched or bored this winter.