Next Year

[TOM4CWB]

Soil moisture maps , NDVI maps and precipitation averages will show that 70% of western Canada will be far below average .
Then harvest yields will prove it

It will be very telling to see how crop insurance treats us in 2021 for writing off fields!

We are applying fungicide on some of our crops as they could be average in yield… if no write offs on the bad fields no tangible benefits to fungicide except to meet contracts just like 2002 we scrounged everything we could even when it reduced our crop insurance payment.

Memories of 20 years ago, we did the right things when we took everything through harvest as much as we could!

Cheers

[farmboy44]

This year is a write off. What if next year is not any better? What are the implications for food supply? Are we going to pay for living hand to mouth and on time delivery ? I am contemplating trimming investments. This may have bigger implications for our economy and the world economy.

Are you okay? This post is about agriculture not covid

[furrowtickler]

It will be very telling to see how crop insurance treats us in 2021 for writing off fields!

We are applying fungicide on some of our crops as they could be average in yield… if no write offs on the bad fields no tangible benefits to fungicide except to meet contracts just like 2002 we scrounged everything we could even when it reduced our crop insurance payment.

Memories of 20 years ago, we did the right things when we took everything through harvest as much as we could!

Cheers

I would imagine seed production fields will be treated vastly different than commercial ones ?
Will be some extremely valuable seed production fields in cereals and pulses

[TOM4CWB]

I would imagine seed production fields will be treated vastly different than commercial ones ?
Will be some extremely valuable seed production fields in cereals and pulses

Our Canola fields are Nexera for BUNGE. We have no seed Canola.

Most of our seed fields will get no fungicide as they are way too dry and too far gone for fungicide to do any good or increase yields.

A good chunk along east Edm Anthony Hendy has had less than an inch from seeding May 1
Canola seeded May 4 is finished blooming and it is July 11.
Never seen it like this except for 2002.

Cheers

[seldomseen]

Hot dry summer is nothing new. The Prairies has been through this many times in the past and the World keeps bumping along. Markets seem to jump with the threat of drought but when the results come in they kind of yawn and look elsewhere in the World.
As for Chuck with a little rain the crops would be ok with the heat. Below 0 nothing grows no matter how much it snows!

[chuckChuck]

Sorry, I continue to think a colder dryer climate is the more substantial threat.

Which scientific organizations are predicting that a colder dryer climate is a going to be a threat in next 50,100,200 years? I don't know of any.

On the contrary they are predicting a warmer climate that will be wetter and drier depending on which part of the world you live in with more extreme weather events.

[chuckChuck]

And just like Chuck, to kick the farmer when he is down, by brow beating him with global warming.

And just to show how clueless and out of touch with the "science" he is, he lumps hotter and drier together.

All of the science from all of his favourite sources indicates that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture which results in more precipitation.

A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture but can also results in larger rain events. So more precipitation all at once doesn't mean you get the rain when you need it during hotter and drier periods. 5-10 inches all at once does more harm than good.

I doubt California, the desert southwest,the west coast and the Okanagan would be happy about hotter drier summers considering they are already experiencing record breaking heat waves and drought.

[TASFarms]

Less planes flying and there is warmer temps. Explain to me how climate change works

[furrowtickler]

Our Canola fields are Nexera for BUNGE. We have no seed Canola.

Most of our seed fields will get no fungicide as they are way too dry and too far gone for fungicide to do any good or increase yields.

A good chunk along east Edm Anthony Hendy has had less than an inch from seeding May 1
Canola seeded May 4 is finished blooming and it is July 11.
Never seen it like this except for 2002.

Cheers

Was not talking canola , been around long enough to know that .
Was talking cereals , pulses . But maybe you missed that

[furrowtickler]

A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture but can also results in larger rain events. So more precipitation all at once doesn't mean you get the rain when you need it during hotter and drier periods. 5-10 inches all at once does more harm than good.

I doubt California, the desert southwest,the west coast and the Okanagan would be happy about hotter drier summers considering they are experiencing record breaking heat waves and drought.

True , but records that were made before climate Armageddon was even dreamed up

[furrowtickler]

Hot dry summer is nothing new. The Prairies has been through this many times in the past and the World keeps bumping along. Markets seem to jump with the threat of drought but when the results come in they kind of yawn and look elsewhere in the World.
As for Chuck with a little rain the crops would be ok with the heat. Below 0 nothing grows no matter how much it snows!

Or freezes at the end of August

[AlbertaFarmer5]

True , but records that were made before climate Armageddon was even dreamed up

Yes,that area has experienced mega droughts that lasted for hundreds of years. Chuck has no clue.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Note the declining trend in drought frequency, longevity, and severity in the era of global warming
Edit, this is for Swift Current from this site: https://climatedata.ca/case-study/drought-and-agriculture/ https://climatedata.ca/case-study/drought-and-agriculture/


Almost anyone farming today in the semi arid prairies has only known good times punctuated by short dry spells. Benign would be the best word to describe the almost ideal weather( relatively speaking) that we all know. We have no point of reference for what a return to normal would be like. Palliser probably could help us understand. The extremes of all types from early 20th century really makes one respect the pioneers who survived them, to say nothing of the extremes from prior to official records being kept.

[TOM4CWB]

Note the declining trend in drought frequency, longevity, and severity in the era of global warming
Edit, this is for Swift Current from this site: https://climatedata.ca/case-study/drought-and-agriculture/ https://climatedata.ca/case-study/drought-and-agriculture/


Almost anyone farming today in the semi arid prairies has only known good times punctuated by short dry spells. Benign would be the best word to describe the almost ideal weather( relatively speaking) that we all know. We have no point of reference for what a return to normal would be like. Palliser probably could help us understand. The extremes of all types from early 20th century really makes one respect the pioneers who survived them, to say nothing of the extremes from prior to official records being kept.

The 1960s were dry in Our part of north central Alberta… NE Alberta being so wet for 5 years is in shock (dry) this year.
Will need cool weather to draw the reserve moisture up to finish the crops if no rain… if cool it is amazing how plants can suck up subsoil water. August 2002 was when the hay from Ontario came on rail. 2002 Edm 235mm 473mm 2003.

The 30day average is bleak… usually what makes our crop.

https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/historical-historiques.jspx?jsEnabled=true

Hope this worked!


Cheers

[farming101]

Somebody mentioned Palliser? This map is a mosaic from 10-14 days ago. Hardly any cloud those days