Next Year

[jazz]

A food shortage can't crash the monetary economy If that's what you are thinking. That has never happened before.

But it sure can have some major global impacts if people feel inflation and food insecurity. That has lead to bloody revolutions before and overthrow of govts.

Peter Zeihan has been crowing forever that a glitch in globalization and JIT supply chains could cause famine.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

The globalists have stated that farmers are too stupid to make farming decisions. Higher food prices will give them the opportunity they so desire to implement the agenda to centralize all decision making. "Let no crisis go to waste!"

Because that has worked so well every other time it has been tried in all of history...

A while back someone posted an article about the soil erosion and destruction being caused by the large organic farm in the Northern US plains. And an earlier article had the corporate owners stating how they were using this farm to show farmers how it should be done. I thought that quote was priceless.

And government bureaucrats are going to be many times more incompetent than corporate bureaucrats.

[Taiga]

I am not buying the theory that fert costs will be higher next year. I am not buying anything this fall.

[checking]

And some farmers may finally figure out that a hotter dryer climate won't be good for them.

Sorry, I continue to think a colder dryer climate is the more substantial threat.

[fcr]

Nutrien called on friday saying inputs are all going up, better get everything for fall bought now.Politely as possible said no.

[furrowtickler]

And some farmers may finally figure out that a hotter dryer climate won't be good for them.

A one month hotter drier spell is not climate
Nor is a cold dry spring or cold snowy September
Its cycles within a climate that changes , has forever

[SASKFARMER]

I agree furrow i try a cycles I’ve seen the 80s now the 2020s dad seen the 30s and 61

[bucket]

I dont think anybody is gonna notice this year. Transportation of food around the world has gotten just too easy. Would take multiple years of shortages and the reality is that the first ones to go hungry are the poorest countries in the world that we never hear about anyhow. There are still good crops out there, 20 miles from here there is a bumper crop, here we are in big trouble. The laws of averages will kick in.

Also as the price of raw ag product doubles, what is the impact to consumers? 10% to their food budget? I bet it's not even that high.

Unless you are Galen Weston who see an opportunity to price fix and gouge. Using higher grain prices as the excuse.

Wheat could go to 25 dollars a bushel and there still wouldn't be the justification for the increases the Westons got away with.

[Taiga]

Nutrien called on friday saying inputs are all going up, better get everything for fall bought now.Politely as possible said no.

Nutrien tried that with me in June when I was looking at some chemical. They said the price was going up at the end of the day and I had to commit immediately. Well I didn’t and didn’t buy anything anyway, not worth throwing any more money on this crop.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

A one month hotter drier spell is not climate
Nor is a cold dry spring or cold snowy September
Its cycles within a climate that changes , has forever

And just like Chuck, to kick the farmer when he is down, by brow beating him with global warming.

And just to show how clueless and out of touch with the "science" he is, he lumps hotter and drier together.

All of the science from all of his favourite sources indicates that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture which results in more precipitation.

[furrowtickler]

I dont think anybody is gonna notice this year. Transportation of food around the world has gotten just too easy. Would take multiple years of shortages and the reality is that the first ones to go hungry are the poorest countries in the world that we never hear about anyhow. There are still good crops out there, 20 miles from here there is a bumper crop, here we are in big trouble. The laws of averages will kick in.

Also as the price of raw ag product doubles, what is the impact to consumers? 10% to their food budget? I bet it's not even that high.

I believe you are mostly right but it will not go unnoticed.
It’s not about this drought area , which is huge btw , far larger than the good areas by a 70/30 margin
But it’s the fact that Brazil in trouble as well as the whole northern US grain belt including a huge producing area in the pacific NW
And the cupboards are mostly bare . A few countries have decent crops but current North American crop prices are showing the reality that the markets are extremely nervous ... and they should be
The large crop predicted is long gone and they large carryover was never there and what was there China has already bought most of it

[furrowtickler]

Soil moisture maps , NDVI maps and precipitation averages will show that 70% of western Canada will be far below average .
Then harvest yields will prove it

[bucket]

"""""what was there China has already bought most of it""""

Without even a whisper of most western Canadian farmers knowing it.


Sad part is China could float the wheat and resell it and make more money off the Canadian farmers farms than the farmers here doing the work.

[blackjack]

Touring Southern Alberta like sf3 says it looks like the eighties....dryland fields I assume will all be crop insurance.

[bucket]

Why isn't crop insurance taking steps to ensure crops can be used effectively.

Why set the cow calf guy back a few years with no feed when ,,,,if the right decisions were made now it could still be a win for a lot of producers.?