Next Year

[AlbertaFarmer5]

A one month hotter drier spell is not climate
Nor is a cold dry spring or cold snowy September
Its cycles within a climate that changes , has forever

And just like Chuck, to kick the farmer when he is down, by brow beating him with global warming.

And just to show how clueless and out of touch with the "science" he is, he lumps hotter and drier together.

All of the science from all of his favourite sources indicates that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture which results in more precipitation.

[furrowtickler]

I dont think anybody is gonna notice this year. Transportation of food around the world has gotten just too easy. Would take multiple years of shortages and the reality is that the first ones to go hungry are the poorest countries in the world that we never hear about anyhow. There are still good crops out there, 20 miles from here there is a bumper crop, here we are in big trouble. The laws of averages will kick in.

Also as the price of raw ag product doubles, what is the impact to consumers? 10% to their food budget? I bet it's not even that high.

I believe you are mostly right but it will not go unnoticed.
It’s not about this drought area , which is huge btw , far larger than the good areas by a 70/30 margin
But it’s the fact that Brazil in trouble as well as the whole northern US grain belt including a huge producing area in the pacific NW
And the cupboards are mostly bare . A few countries have decent crops but current North American crop prices are showing the reality that the markets are extremely nervous ... and they should be
The large crop predicted is long gone and they large carryover was never there and what was there China has already bought most of it

[furrowtickler]

Soil moisture maps , NDVI maps and precipitation averages will show that 70% of western Canada will be far below average .
Then harvest yields will prove it

[bucket]

"""""what was there China has already bought most of it""""

Without even a whisper of most western Canadian farmers knowing it.


Sad part is China could float the wheat and resell it and make more money off the Canadian farmers farms than the farmers here doing the work.

[blackjack]

Touring Southern Alberta like sf3 says it looks like the eighties....dryland fields I assume will all be crop insurance.

[bucket]

Why isn't crop insurance taking steps to ensure crops can be used effectively.

Why set the cow calf guy back a few years with no feed when ,,,,if the right decisions were made now it could still be a win for a lot of producers.?

[TOM4CWB]

Soil moisture maps , NDVI maps and precipitation averages will show that 70% of western Canada will be far below average .
Then harvest yields will prove it

It will be very telling to see how crop insurance treats us in 2021 for writing off fields!

We are applying fungicide on some of our crops as they could be average in yield… if no write offs on the bad fields no tangible benefits to fungicide except to meet contracts just like 2002 we scrounged everything we could even when it reduced our crop insurance payment.

Memories of 20 years ago, we did the right things when we took everything through harvest as much as we could!

Cheers

[farmboy44]

This year is a write off. What if next year is not any better? What are the implications for food supply? Are we going to pay for living hand to mouth and on time delivery ? I am contemplating trimming investments. This may have bigger implications for our economy and the world economy.

Are you okay? This post is about agriculture not covid

[furrowtickler]

It will be very telling to see how crop insurance treats us in 2021 for writing off fields!

We are applying fungicide on some of our crops as they could be average in yield… if no write offs on the bad fields no tangible benefits to fungicide except to meet contracts just like 2002 we scrounged everything we could even when it reduced our crop insurance payment.

Memories of 20 years ago, we did the right things when we took everything through harvest as much as we could!

Cheers

I would imagine seed production fields will be treated vastly different than commercial ones ?
Will be some extremely valuable seed production fields in cereals and pulses

[TOM4CWB]

I would imagine seed production fields will be treated vastly different than commercial ones ?
Will be some extremely valuable seed production fields in cereals and pulses

Our Canola fields are Nexera for BUNGE. We have no seed Canola.

Most of our seed fields will get no fungicide as they are way too dry and too far gone for fungicide to do any good or increase yields.

A good chunk along east Edm Anthony Hendy has had less than an inch from seeding May 1
Canola seeded May 4 is finished blooming and it is July 11.
Never seen it like this except for 2002.

Cheers

[seldomseen]

Hot dry summer is nothing new. The Prairies has been through this many times in the past and the World keeps bumping along. Markets seem to jump with the threat of drought but when the results come in they kind of yawn and look elsewhere in the World.
As for Chuck with a little rain the crops would be ok with the heat. Below 0 nothing grows no matter how much it snows!

[chuckChuck]

Sorry, I continue to think a colder dryer climate is the more substantial threat.

Which scientific organizations are predicting that a colder dryer climate is a going to be a threat in next 50,100,200 years? I don't know of any.

On the contrary they are predicting a warmer climate that will be wetter and drier depending on which part of the world you live in with more extreme weather events.