Next Year

[chuckChuck]

Note the declining trend in drought frequency, longevity, and severity in the era of global warming
Edit, this is for Swift Current from this site: https://climatedata.ca/case-study/drought-and-agriculture/ https://climatedata.ca/case-study/drought-and-agriculture/


Almost anyone farming today in the semi arid prairies has only known good times punctuated by short dry spells. Benign would be the best word to describe the almost ideal weather( relatively speaking) that we all know. We have no point of reference for what a return to normal would be like. Palliser probably could help us understand. The extremes of all types from early 20th century really makes one respect the pioneers who survived them, to say nothing of the extremes from prior to official records being kept.

This is what the paper you referenced above says about climate change and drought potential on the prairies:

"What are the Future Possible Drought Threats?

A general increasing risk of drought is expected with a warming climate for the southern Canadian prairies, despite projected increases in precipitation in some areas and seasons9. More intense and larger area droughts with increased variability are projected9,10,11,12,13. Increased drying trends are documented, especially for the Prairies, that become more dominant during the 2050s (Figures 3 and 4) and with higher emission scenarios because of higher temperatures and longer warm seasons. The severe infamous droughts of the “dirty 30s”, early 1960s, 1980s and early 2000s may pale in comparison with future droughts."

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Why do all of your catastrophic scenarios occur in the future tense? The trend so far runs completely opposite to what the computer models are claiming the future holds.

That looks like an abject failure of the projections.

I don't make my living in the future.

[chuckChuck]

Why do all of your catastrophic scenarios occur in the future tense? The trend so far runs completely opposite to what the computer models are claiming the future holds.

That looks like an abject failure of the projections.

I don't make my living in the future.

https://climatedata.ca/explore/location/?loc=HATYU&location-select-temperature=tx_max&location-select-precipitation=rx1day&location-select-other=frost_days https://climatedata.ca/explore/location/?loc=HATYU&location-select-temperature=tx_max&location-select-precipitation=rx1day&location-select-other=frost_days

Lets take a look at Leader SK just north of Swift Current.

Leader, SK

For the 1951-1980 period, the annual average temperature was 3.4 ºC; for 1981-2010 it was 4.5 ºC. Under a high emissions scenario, annual average temperatures are projected to be 6.2 ºC for the 2021-2050 period, 8.3 ºC for the 2051-2080 period and 9.8 ºC for the last 30 years of this century.

Average annual precipitation for the 1951-1980 period was 332 mm. Under a high emissions scenario, this is projected to be 9% higher for the 2021-2050 period, 12% higher for the 2051-2080 period and 13% higher for the last 30 years of this century.

[furrowtickler]

This is what the paper you referenced above says about climate change and drought potential on the prairies:

"What are the Future Possible Drought Threats?

A general increasing risk of drought is expected with a warming climate for the southern Canadian prairies, despite projected increases in precipitation in some areas and seasons9. More intense and larger area droughts with increased variability are projected9,10,11,12,13. Increased drying trends are documented, especially for the Prairies, that become more dominant during the 2050s (Figures 3 and 4) and with higher emission scenarios because of higher temperatures and longer warm seasons. The severe infamous droughts of the “dirty 30s”, early 1960s, 1980s and early 2000s may pale in comparison with future droughts."

May ... or May not
One thing is for certain , growing seasons in most areas have been shorter the past few years ... that’s undeniable, and you know it
This current hot weather still does not translate into a longer growing season , but frost dates spring and fall sure due
GDD may be up this year , actually most certainly will be , but the growing season hinges on the fall frost as the May and June frosts already set the tone early.
This hot weather has pushed crop development, in some cases actually decimated crops , but will we get an august frost again ? Hopefully that’s not an issue for the first time in several years

[chuckChuck]

For Swift Current from the paper you quoted. From 1961 the historical grey SPEI trend line looks to be slightly down for the agricultural year which indicates drier conditions.

"Several measures of drought are in use, including the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)7. The SPEI is a relatively simple index based on the water balance equation (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) which can be used to calculate drought at many time scales (e.g., one, three, six, nine and twelve months) for the historical period as well as for the future (using climate model output). Since this index includes potential evapotranspiration, the effects of projected increases in temperature in the future can also be included."

https://climatedata.ca/case-study/drought-and-agriculture/ https://climatedata.ca/case-study/drought-and-agriculture/


Bold coloured lines represent median values for the historical period (grey) and each RCP (2.6 – green; 4.5 – blue; 8.5 – red), while the correspondingly shaded areas are bounded by 10th and 90th percentile values for the historical period and each RCP.

Data Source: Tam BY, Szeto K, Bonsal B, Flato G, Cannon AJ, Rong R. (2018): CMIP5 drought projections in Canada based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. Canadian Water Resources Journal 44: 90-107

[shtferbrains]

Why do all of your catastrophic scenarios occur in the future tense? The trend so far runs completely opposite to what the computer models are claiming the future holds.

That looks like an abject failure of the projections.

I don't make my living in the future.

What I see with these types of scientific studies is a valuable piece of research with an editorial as an afterthought. The editorial had nothing to do with the science.
If you are a civil servant you have to go along to get along.
No different than when Trump canned everbody who's point of view he didn't like.

[furrowtickler]

All the fancy graphs in the world don’t show the frost damage from late spring and early fall frosts

[chuckChuck]

Variability from season to season will still be high no matter what the long term climate trends are. So frosts in May and September will continue.

[furrowtickler]

That’s an absolute guarantee, but it’s the ones in June and August you refuse to admit that happened .
Regardless, the growing seasons have not been longer in most western Canada the past 4 out of 5 years. Proof is in yield and grade loss due to early and late frosts and very low GDD in most areas up till this year .
This year a total different animal as far as GDD , frost free days yet to be determined.

[chuckChuck]

That’s an absolute guarantee, but it’s the ones in June and August you refuse to admit that happened .
Regardless, the growing seasons have not been longer in most western Canada the past 4 out of 5 years. Proof is in yield and grade loss due to early and late frosts and very low GDD in most areas up till this year .
This year a total different animal as far as GDD , frost free days yet to be determined.

5 years is not a long enough period to measure climate. Minimum is 30 years.

Weather extremes including blocking patterns and cold spells because of changes in the jet stream patterns are on the radar of many climate scientists as a symptom of global climate change.

[furrowtickler]

5 years is not a long enough period to measure climate. Minimum is 30 years.

Neither is a two week hot spell
Nice try

[chuckChuck]

Neither is a two week hot spell
Nice try

Never said it was.

[Horse]

Why do all of your catastrophic scenarios occur in the future tense? The trend so far runs completely opposite to what the computer models are claiming the future holds.

That looks like an abject failure of the projections.

I don't make my living in the future.

So you make your living in the past,Hows that working for you,little late to close the door after the horse has left the barn.
Furrowtickler You state the growing seasons are undeniably getting shorter,I will argue that point as I have seen the agri land expand into areas that 40 yr ago do one would have even thouht of planting any crops , varieties have changed and have longer growing days to mature.
All through the 60s there was hardly a dry kernel harvested,the snow was deep and the temps were no where near what they are today. Rain was more general,but most only had 100/300 acres to harvest. 95 JD super 92 massey 542 cockshut got the job done and everyone made a living.

[furrowtickler]

So you make your living in the past,Hows that working for you,little late to close the door after the horse has left the barn.
Furrowtickler You state the growing seasons are undeniably getting shorter,I will argue that point as I have seen the agri land expand into areas that 40 yr ago do one would have even thouht of planting any crops , varieties have changed and have longer growing days to mature.
All through the 60s there was hardly a dry kernel harvested,the snow was deep and the temps were no where near what they are today. Rain was more general,but most only had 100/300 acres to harvest. 95 JD super 92 massey 542 cockshut got the job done and everyone made a living.

I have stated several times , the growing season the past 4 out of 5 years has been shorter in most of western Canada , not longer ... to prove the climate extremists wrong . And I will stand by that all day long.
This year , as I have stated is yet to be seen , GDD is way up over the past 5 years but we had frosts in a very wide area on June 20th for those with short memories and 5 frosts before that after May 15th in many areas
The high GDD is pushing crop maturity huge this year but one early frost and the growing season is over
Maybe not many of your are involved in corn or soybeans , but the past 5 years have been not good and also those that forget the August frosts and highly unusual Early September snows that hurt yields and grain quality in many areas of western Canada the past few years

Long term you may be right , but I do know for a fact what many have faced these past 4 out of 5 years and it sure as Phuket was not longer growing season like the b/s being preached

[furrowtickler]

For anyone who is not sure how plants grow , they are severely limited by frost events in June and August

Just as they are by a few weeks of hot dry weather in July