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16 mmt canola crop

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    16 mmt canola crop

    That is a 28.82 bpa canola crop across w Canada


    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/agriculture/071621-drought-in-canada-threatens-canola-crop-tightens-global-veg-oil-supplies


    Drought in Canada threatens canola crop, tightens global veg oil supplies

    • AuthorAditya Kondalamahanty Pratibha Alagh
    • EditorAastha Agnihotri
    • CommodityAgriculture, Oil

    HIGHLIGHTS
    Canola crop ratings hit their lowest in years
    Lower canola prices in EU keep room for further speculative rally
    In Malaysia palm oil growth was slower-than-expected in June
    A dry spring, patchy rainfall, and high temperatures in the Canadian prairies during June have raised concerns about the canola yields from Canada -- the world's largest producer and exporter of canola oil – and pushed prices of palm oil and soybean oil higher globally.

    Canola is the edible oilseed developed from ****seed and is primarily grown in the western provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Geographically the region is known as the Canadian prairies.

    "Often, there are some areas of the prairies that are too dry and others that perform better, with one region offsetting the losses in others. This year, good-looking crops are few and far between and the losses are widespread," Chuck Penner, head of Canadian agri research firm LeftField Commodity Research, told S&P global Platts.

    In June, drought conditions expanded in Alberta, while severe drought conditions were noted in parts of Saskatchewan province, Canada's Canadian Drought Monitor said in its latest report. Manitoba, another important canola-growing region, is facing severe-to-exceptional drought conditions.These provinces have been marked as D2 or D3 grades, indicating the drought intensity in the region. D2 is given to a drought event occurring every 10 to 20 years, while D3 grade signifies a drought event which occurs once every 20 years or more.
    Market participants have said they expect canola oil production to be below official projections this year despite a higher seeded area than last year.
    In early July, the US Department of Agriculture's World Agricultural Outlook Board pegged its estimate of Canada canola (****seed) production at 20.2 million tons, while the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) department projected 20.05 million mt of canola.
    However, analysts are less optimistic and say that the current crop condition ratings are the lowest ever.
    "If I had to guess, I would peg the 2021 canola crop at 16 million mt or lower, compared to 18.7 million mt last year," Penner said.
    The news has coincided with concerns of slow output growth of palm oil in Malaysia and forecast of drier weather in soybean growing regions of US Midwest to boost sentiment in vegetable oil markets.
    Tight veg oil supplies
    Canada's drought announcement pushed ICE canola futures to their limit gain on July 9 and have supported edible oil prices since, as it was followed by news of slower-than-expected production growth of palm oil in Malaysia on July 12, industry watchers told Platts.
    "Since canola is a high oil yield crop, the reduction in canola crop would be seen supporting global veg oil prices," according to Anil Kumar Bagani, research head at vegetable oil brokerage Sunvin group.
    September palm oil futures hit its two-month high on July 15, supported by output concerns in Malaysia and firmness in rival edible oil prices, RHB Futures said.
    Meanwhile, ICE Canola futures closed at CAD 912.1/mt ($725.42) on July 15, up 26% from a month ago.
    The impact of a lower canola crop on the veg oil complex might intensify in the coming few weeks as canola prices in Europe, according to Gaurav Jain, founder of agrigoods research company AgPulse Analytica.
    ""European prices are down about $80/mt to Canadian prices mainly due to speculative interest in Canadian canola. The way the ICE prices moved this week and the last week is signaling toward a speculative rally," Jain said.

    #2
    My guess is that they better plan on 10-11 million. Last years crop was grossly overestimated as well since they under reported NW Alberta with a canola crop failure due to flooding. Now there is one due to drought. Only small area in central AB with 80% of average and the rest with 20% of average. Locally we have 0 - 5bu/ac and mine will be in that range. Last rain at home greater than a pavement wetter was June 14 and on the rented land June 11.

    Comment


      #3
      Thanks for posting. My impression from my travels is that prodution number could still be high. Waiting to hear what SF3 finds on his trip.

      have raised concerns about the canola yields from Canada -- the world's largest producer and exporter of canola oil – and pushed prices of palm oil and soybean oil higher globally.
      Sounds like the tail wagging the dog. I've always been under the impression that canola was a follower of world veg oil markets, not the leader.

      Canola and ****seed together are only 13% of world oilseed production. But if supplies are already tight, then the marginal production could really have an outsized effect.

      Comment


        #4
        Way too early to call that number even. Damage is still being done.

        Comment


          #5
          There are vast areas of canola country that usually produce mega bushels that will not get even close to 28. I think the number is way, way, way high. But it’s hard to know because one can only travel so much. Looking forward to saskfarmers further unfiltered voyage results!

          Comment


            #6
            There will be no 28 bus canola crops here. 15 to 20 if we get rain.

            Comment


              #7
              He did say 16 mmt or lower , was probably not far off 3 weeks ago .
              Number will be lower , by how much no one will know till probably half way through harvest
              Early results will be very poor and some pockets may be average but 28 bpa will not happen now
              Won’t be much above 2002 levels most likely.
              Way too many blanks in even the best fields

              Comment


                #8
                not a chance for 13 mmt at this point in time....and less for every day...my guess is we are trimming 250000 tonnes a day right now. smoke or no smoke.
                Last edited by bucket; Jul 16, 2021, 11:06.

                Comment


                  #9
                  And for as long as I can remember most experts said Canada doesn't matter..

                  Until we do.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Sorry wrong tread, will repost
                    Last edited by Sodbuster; Jul 16, 2021, 12:03.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      does it seriously censor ****seed? or are you guys doing that yourselves?

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by TraderJoe View Post
                        does it seriously censor ****seed? or are you guys doing that yourselves?
                        guess that answers my question!

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by TraderJoe View Post
                          guess that answers my question!
                          Highlights that maybe agriville got some Trudeau money and had to start censoring.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            no way in gods green earth will canola average 18 , let alone 28 BPA, not a chance

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by TraderJoe View Post
                              does it seriously censor ****seed? or are you guys doing that yourselves?
                              Can't even describe the act of **** and pillage effectively.

                              Comment

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