16 mmt canola crop

[bucket]

guess that answers my question!

Highlights that maybe agriville got some Trudeau money and had to start censoring.

[Guest]

no way in gods green earth will canola average 18 , let alone 28 BPA, not a chance

[AlbertaFarmer5]

does it seriously censor ****seed? or are you guys doing that yourselves?

Can't even describe the act of **** and pillage effectively.

[Guest]

R a p e seed is very bad indeed, the improper term for fellatio is ok tho

[seldomseen]

28 not possible around here and I think it we go done hill if I travel west and south. Small area north of me that might make 30 or more but that' a really small area.

I always get a little chuckle out of the good people of Tisdale and their town slogan "The land of **** and Honey" and then call the Hockey team "The Trojan's"

[seldomseen]

In other news
I just saw on tweeter That Neil of Farm Link just made a radio announcement of a Canola crop of 37.5 bu
Can anyone confirm this?
If he did say that he must have alternative motive or he is absolutely nuts!

[beaverdam]

The week coming up will be very destructive for canola crops in our area, SE Sask.

Forecast is 33-36'C with every single day having winds 30-55kms

The early crops that have wound down, won't fill those last pods on the top(the ones not blanked out already)
The later crops still blooming will be toast by the end of the week.

I can see actual yields(not the yields you take tell your neighbor or take to the coffeeshop), net of dockage and based on weight, being in the 10-18 bus range.

Remember last year all the small seeds or seeds that didn't weigh anything, in the sample.

[Sodbuster]

I expect our canola to come in at about 20 bushel/acre , within the same field we will see yields from 5 to 45, how much small seeds ends up going the back end of the combine is anybody’s guess. Add another 10 days of 30+ more heat with no rain I might have to lower my sights to 15 bushels. Our area had low soil moisture going into winter but had at least 2’ of snow with very little run off. Last significant rain June 12th with 3.9” since April 1st. The biggest hurdle for crops this year is the never ending heat and wind.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Let’s say 15 million tons to pick a number.
Last years price peaked at $24 with supposedly about 22 million tons including carryover.
This year 15 million plus maybe 1 million carryover is 16 million available.
22/16=1.375 times 24=$33

Am I out to lunch??

I've been asking myself the same question.
Price was justified at the time when we were still assuming a normal 2021 crop.
Just the short covering alone could be spectacular, out of that what the consecutive days of limit up was clearing up?

[Hamloc]

In other news
I just saw on tweeter That Neil of Farm Link just made a radio announcement of a Canola crop of 37.5 bu
Can anyone confirm this?
If he did say that he must have alternative motive or he is absolutely nuts!

Yes he is quoted as saying 37.5 bushels in an article on farms.com I think the article was Canola crop under duress, article posted July 14. I have to be honest I can’t believe this guy still has a job!

[bucket]

July 14,2021

Neil Townsend, chief market analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions, says they're expecting lower yields this year.

"We've been fairly conservative with reducing our yield. We are low, we're at about 37.5 bushels an acre, which really greatly constricts the supply and necessitates demand destruction, both domestically and in particular offshore."

He added the weather forecast is not favourable.

"The next 10 days the weather looks very grim for western Canada. I think the yield probably has more downside to it, than upside. That's going to be very favourable for the pricing because canola has a definitely strong demand base and I don't think people have really got the message yet that our supply is going to be very tight."

Townsend says while the crop has rebounded before, this year might be different.

"We're bullish canola for price, but we're bearish for canola for production. The price might be high but people might be getting a half or a third of a crop of what they expected. The one thing I will caution is, I don't think there's a person alive who totally understands how to forecast canola and how canola is going to end up. I don't want to totally write off the crop because we've been surprised before in the past when we thought the crop was under some duress. The only point I'll make is that this is the most significant duress the crop has been under in the last 10 years easily."

[bucket]

Holy oh phuck...he is a piece of work.

37.5 bpa for canola wasn't in the cards if it rained normal since May 1st.

Him and Justin must be smoking the same weed.