Questions to cattle guys on here....

[WiltonRanch]

A lot of established mixed operations here are known to keep bins of feed grains squirrelled away for times like these. A carryover of straw to boot. This will keep like good sileage. However, many outfits don’t have that luxury. Even around here many cow operations are hand to mouth. They rely on decent moisture and reasonable cost feeds to survive let alone thrive. No matter what tree huggers and sjw’s think there is a need for livestock to make use of production unfit for human consumption, and even lessen the risk of forest fires by grazing understory vegetation. We have lost many operations over the years from previous droughts and the BSE fiasco. This current drought and a government with no clear directive or willingness to help will only continue to kill the industry. There is less willingness by present producers to mortgage the farm to pull the herd through like in 2002. The BSE left an indelible mark on many a producers mind. We ran a decent sized herd until a number of years ago but then cut back to what our land close to home could handle comfortably. Years ago an old timer told me in order to get through drought with cattle on a mixed farm you need 10 acres of crop for every cow. If all goes to pot there should be enough salvage to pull you through. I heard it changes considerably the further south you go. From 2000 to 2003 we managed well enough to get up enough feed for more cattle and less crop acres than we have today. I am not really worried about this year but next year will be what tells the tale. Have a considerable amount of heifers bred but a lot of old ones that could be culled. I think we are in for a prolonged drought period so highly considering seeding a quarter of annuals like rye triticale oats or barley for grazing. If it turns outs that we get rain we can always bale it but I’m not that positive now. Last year was kinda a funny year but we had rain but not as much as 2019. We are in a drying trend. We were in a 16 year wetting trend now we are in year 2 of a drying trend. It’s gonna get worse before it gets better.

[furrowtickler]

A lot of established mixed operations here are known to keep bins of feed grains squirrelled away for times like these. A carryover of straw to boot. This will keep like good sileage. However, many outfits don’t have that luxury. Even around here many cow operations are hand to mouth. They rely on decent moisture and reasonable cost feeds to survive let alone thrive. No matter what tree huggers and sjw’s think there is a need for livestock to make use of production unfit for human consumption, and even lessen the risk of forest fires by grazing understory vegetation. We have lost many operations over the years from previous droughts and the BSE fiasco. This current drought and a government with no clear directive or willingness to help will only continue to kill the industry. There is less willingness by present producers to mortgage the farm to pull the herd through like in 2002. The BSE left an indelible mark on many a producers mind. We ran a decent sized herd until a number of years ago but then cut back to what our land close to home could handle comfortably. Years ago an old timer told me in order to get through drought with cattle on a mixed farm you need 10 acres of crop for every cow. If all goes to pot there should be enough salvage to pull you through. I heard it changes considerably the further south you go. From 2000 to 2003 we managed well enough to get up enough feed for more cattle and less crop acres than we have today. I am not really worried about this year but next year will be what tells the tale. Have a considerable amount of heifers bred but a lot of old ones that could be culled. I think we are in for a prolonged drought period so highly considering seeding a quarter of annuals like rye triticale oats or barley for grazing. If it turns outs that we get rain we can always bale it but I’m not that positive now. Last year was kinda a funny year but we had rain but not as much as 2019. We are in a drying trend. We were in a 16 year wetting trend now we are in year 2 of a drying trend. It’s gonna get worse before it gets better.

We have been in a dry trend here for 4 years with the exception of one 4 in rain at once last year.
The driest area the past few years went from Hafford SW to West of Kindersly

[WiltonRanch]

We have been in a dry trend here for 4 years with the exception of one 4 in rain at once last year.
The driest area the past few years went from Hafford SW to West of Kindersly

This drought is staggering because it affects nearly every corner of the prairies with exception being parts of the peace. Family up there says so. In 2002 east sask and Manitoba were spared. This will cripple the cattle industry and break crop insurance eventually. Remember another oldtimer who was into archaeology telling me about a mega drought that happened 1000 years ago. So bad the north sask river was a trickle. Countless finds of dead bison at rivers edge starved to death. Manitou lake south of lloydminster complete Buffalo carcasses are found well into the lake preserved by salt. This country has been drier a lot longer. Maybe we’ve been lucky these last 130 years to have been in a wet period. So question is if it goes that way is ag dead in prairies? Won’t be enough water for irrigation so rule that out. Essentially a bunch of worthless land with no expectation of profit. Kinda makes you think maybe the natives lived a nomadic lifestyle and never really flourished on the plains like the Iroquois because of droughts. We are north of palisers triangle but nature doesn’t always adhere to lines.

[DaneG]

Price wise how would they compare to feeding rolled barley?

With DDG’s at approximately 28% protein and fairly high energy from the corn oil there isn’t any coarse grains that can compete on price per pounds of protein. I was quoted $322/tonne in my yard.
Also it is ready to feed no processing but it can firm up in the bin best to use a wooden bin to store it in and never a hopper bin!

[Blaithin]

How much do you order at once? We always just had it in piles on the ground but went through it fast.

Different DDGs probably have different proteins. GDR would probably have best access at Permolex and they’re all wheat I believe. They list their options as 15% to 25% protein with the stillage being above 40%.

[furrowtickler]

This drought is staggering because it affects nearly every corner of the prairies with exception being parts of the peace. Family up there says so. In 2002 east sask and Manitoba were spared. This will cripple the cattle industry and break crop insurance eventually. Remember another oldtimer who was into archaeology telling me about a mega drought that happened 1000 years ago. So bad the north sask river was a trickle. Countless finds of dead bison at rivers edge starved to death. Manitou lake south of lloydminster complete Buffalo carcasses are found well into the lake preserved by salt. This country has been drier a lot longer. Maybe we’ve been lucky these last 130 years to have been in a wet period. So question is if it goes that way is ag dead in prairies? Won’t be enough water for irrigation so rule that out. Essentially a bunch of worthless land with no expectation of profit. Kinda makes you think maybe the natives lived a nomadic lifestyle and never really flourished on the plains like the Iroquois because of droughts. We are north of palisers triangle but nature doesn’t always adhere to lines.

Very true , this is now bigger than 2002 area wise

[helmsdale]

Im thinking that those who do combine are going to end up with feed quality grain... Checked durum today.

WOW! Only bottom third has flowered and is bothering to try and fill. Kernels that are in there are very skinny. How low can test weight go? You need 52lb/bu(correct me if I'm wrong?) to get a 5cwad, and I think there is a very definite possibility of sub 50lbs... Alot of this durum might end up on the feed market.

There's yet another problem. Are guys going to be able to deliver a 5cwad against a 1cwad or 2cwad+ contract?

Seems buyers are starting to take note. Seeing offers for 1cwad at $12.50/bu through september, and $12.25 #3 or better. Peas jumped to $10... I haven't seen a crop of peas anywhere that's worth a shit! There will be trains sitting and unable to be filled at harvest time.

[furrowtickler]

That is a huge concern as well , lite tests weights in grains , and how bad are the discounts going to be .

[furrowtickler]

I dunno, but what about the sheep guys? The bison guys? We need a payment too!

And then to top things off this garbage is being taught in Universities ...

[Blaithin]

Im thinking that those who do combine are going to end up with feed quality grain... Checked durum today.

WOW! Only bottom third has flowered and is bothering to try and fill. Kernels that are in there are very skinny. How low can test weight go? You need 52lb/bu(correct me if I'm wrong?) to get a 5cwad, and I think there is a very definite possibility of sub 50lbs... Alot of this durum might end up on the feed market.

There's yet another problem. Are guys going to be able to deliver a 5cwad against a 1cwad or 2cwad+ contract?

Seems buyers are starting to take note. Seeing offers for 1cwad at $12.50/bu through september, and $12.25 #3 or better. Peas jumped to $10... I haven't seen a crop of peas anywhere that's worth a shit! There will be trains sitting and unable to be filled at harvest time.

52.1 lbs for a 5.

Another concern could be heat stress can present like frost damage.

I’ve seen guys on SM pencilling in wheat at $8/bushel to see if greenfeed is worth it but that’s on the hopes it’s a #1 or #2. Between test weight and heat damage they really may not be. So the hope is the elevators are going to pay premiums for (probable) high protien from drought stress that looks and weighs like shit?

Doubtful.

The guys spending money are going to be the feedlots. They’re going to pay good money and not care if the wheat looks crappy and will probably be more willing to work with lighter test weights.