Ag Canada trims Canola production. Read for a good laugh.

[furrowtickler]

I had the same thought Tom about the impact of fictional information provided by farmers to stats Canada. It is funny how farmers are so upset about wild ag Canada estimates but have no problem lying about seeded acres and carryover to stats Canada. For all the conspirators out there, if the government really wanted to screw some farmers all they would have to do is to base any drought relief program out the stats Canada information every farmer provided this spring Then they would not have to worry about some farmers not being in crop insurance or agristability as all farmers get the crop survey. Nor would they have to worry about inaccurate information as it comes straight from the farmers and given their criticism of ag Canada data, surely the information straight from the farmers would be true.

This was a production estimate, not a seeded acreage report .
You trying to get employee of the month again ?

[dmlfarmer]

This was a production estimate, not a seeded acreage report .
You trying to get employee of the month again ?

yield X acres = production.

[furrowtickler]

yield X acres = production.

So they grab yield out of thin air ? Yield was not part of Survey . Using average yields in a severe drought year is simply incompetence .
Maybe they used Neil’s numbers , regardless it so far out they will have a hard time massaging the numbers next time .

[dmlfarmer]

So they grab yield out of thin air ? Yield was not part of Survey . Using average yields in a severe drought year is simply incompetence .
Maybe they used Neil’s numbers , regardless it so far out they will have a hard time massaging the numbers next time .

maybe ag canada uses the same formula for getting yields as SaskF presented and then multiplied by those stats Canada acreage numbers that farmers provided.

The point is, it is easy to call out Ag Canada estimate and I agree it is rediculous, but so is some of the information that farmers provide Stats Canada. Information that government uses to develop programs.

[furrowtickler]

maybe ag canada uses the same formula for getting yields as SaskF presented and then multiplied by those stats Canada acreage numbers that farmers provided.

The point is, it is easy to call out Ag Canada estimate and I agree it is rediculous, but so is some of the information that farmers provide Stats Canada. Information that government uses to develop programs.

Or they threw a dart at a dart board .

The problem is that that production number influences markets . It’s so far out and they should be called out in it .
And yes a few farmers do give Stats Canada false info , but most don’t . That’s a scape goat excuse IMO
Obviously zero communication with Sask or Alberta Ag . Shows a glaring problem from the federal level

[bucket]

I give statscan nothing ...until the rest of the industry is willing to share the same way farmers are threatened to ....they can go phuck themselves.

The census people keep calling...I ask what good is this info....

The person says they have 100 years of info...

Great so you know what's happened in the 1930s, 1961, 1988,2002 and the people looking at all this important data have developed programs for the current drought...

The person couldn't answer that...so I said I couldn't answer their questions.

[furrowtickler]

A buddy of mine that works at a local elevator said their internal canola production number for western Canada was at 14.5 mmt 2 weeks ago
Yesterday they lowered it down to just over 10
I think the actual trade knows what’s going on .

[GDR]

Good to see that Ag Canada is in regular communication with Alberta Ag, and Sask Ag:



Sask canola is 72% lower in the good excellent category than it was in the middle of June, and Ag Canada only drops their estimate by 5.8% over the same time period?

And that data is almost 10 days old, how much worse are the numbers by now?

Those provincial crop ratings already pissed me off this spring, crop conditions were never that good from the start, been dry since last fall, dry early, cold spring, hot June, where was this 80 to 90 % excellent conditions? Been a struggle all year.

[bucket]

Those provincial crop ratings already pissed me off this spring, crop conditions were never that good from the start, been dry since last fall, dry early, cold spring, hot June, where was this 80 to 90 % excellent conditions? Been a struggle all year.

All this highlights is people that get a university education and then go work for the government are just in training to be a weatherman.

[LWeber]

A buddy of mine that works at a local elevator said their internal canola production number for western Canada was at 14.5 mmt 2 weeks ago
Yesterday they lowered it down to just over 10
I think the actual trade knows what’s going on .

June 29th I was at 28.33 bpa and 14.432 MMT for canola.
The latest CCAP at 250m is being uploaded as we speak.
i'll run the model again tomorrow and into Saturday.

10.1 MMT would be 19.8 bushels per acre across Canada

2002 22.2
2003 25.8
2004 28.1
2005 32.7
2006 30.7
2007 27.1
2008 34.7
2009 35.3
2010 33.3
2011 34.3
2012 27.9
2013 40.2
2014 34.9
2015 39.2
2016 42.3
2017 41.3
2018 40.6
2019 41.4
2020 40.1

[blackpowder]

Interesting, my canola yield in 02 was 0.

[FarmJunkie]

Wow Larry that’s real bad. Be no export this year Just enuf to keep the crushers happy at this rate.