Friday Crop Report on a Thursday!

[helmsdale]

As %'s of AFSC's long term area averages:

My crop
Cwad/cwrs(on stubble): 25%
Peas: 15%
Mustard: 40%


General area:
Cwad/cwrs(on stubble): 0-35%
Cwad/cwrs(on chemfallow): 35-70%
Peas: 5-35%
Lentils: 30-60%
Mustard: 5-50%
Canola: 0-30%
Barley: 0-30%
Oats: 0-25%

And theres still room for further downside on both the top and bottom end except for those crops that are already torched. There are a few cereal crops that are so bad I doubt you could get 1 round bale per 1/4 section, or 100bu per 1/4 if you ran a combine over it.

Peas will go through a combine next week. Hoping to get seed back.

[furrowtickler]

Fert guy said prices coming down.
Don't pre buy anything he said.

Majority of farms will be figuring out how to pay for the buy backs on contracts, fertilizer will be the very last thing in the minds of the majority for a long time .

[Guest]

I just find it funny that glen posts about a crop tour that’s the same length as the one I did but all he really says is bad farming practices farmers lie and it’s not that bad. Opposite of what I seen and posted. Chuck phone the help line now you need serious help please seek it.

And no pics at all lol
One would think in 2600 kms one would see a picture worthy crop

[Guest]

Fert guy said prices coming down.
Don't pre buy anything he said.

Yep , all the imaginary shortages will disappear into the bullshit zone

[AlbertaFarmer5]

And no pics at all lol
One would think in 2600 kms one would see a picture worthy crop

Or at least a picture worthy solar farm or wind farm or BLM riot.

[makar]

Off topic the new .223 took a beaver first shot at a 100 yards. Number 31, all on my property or close to.

[shtferbrains]

Are the beaver dams holding much water?

[bucket]

Majority of farms will be figuring out how to pay for the buy backs on contracts, fertilizer will be the very last thing in the minds of the majority for a long time .

Heavy hitter sask party supporters have already given Moe and Marit their marching orders about contracts...which is a select subsidy for few.

[Grahamp]

As much as I hate to say it, I don’t see fertilizer dropping. New Crop (2022) canola is $15 and wheat is over 8. Even if they sell less because of drought conditions I don’t see them dropping the price when commodity prices are high. Canadian fert is not really driven by traditional supply and demand, it is priced by the sellers perceived value it creates for a producer. If you are 20 bpa without Nitrogen and 40 bpa at $15+ with 100 lbs of N hello $800 a tonne. Our difficulty hardship etc means nothing to them.

I remember in the early winter of 2014 when we all had good crops but could not move a single bushel, the bins were full and we didn’t have cash flow or space and all the sudden 46-0-0 was up $100 a tonne overnight. I was involved selling soybean seed and was trying to host a grower meeting and wasn’t having any luck getting people to sign up and all the sudden out of the blue 10 guys signed up in one day because they couldn’t believe fertilizer could go up in the environment we were in.

I booked about 1/3 my N a few days and am sadly confident it will be my lowest price. I hope I am wrong and look foolish but I doubt it.

[Partners]

Rp and nutrien have sheds full bought at high price.
So no deals there..
Independent..shed empty..

See what happens..