"Contract squeeze worries farmers " is the WP headline

[bucket]

So if farmers get out of their contracts with the help of a little persuading from government, is that not a form of subsidy.

If a guy gets help not paying a $100000 penalty with a backroom deal between government officials and graincos...


Shouldn't every farmer get a bail out..

That backroom deal is in the works,,,too many heavy hitters conservative?saaskparty/UCp supporters want help on their speculation.


Lets say it was the other way around and prices dropped in half .....interesting times.

[blackpowder]

Situation in reverse hypothetically wouldn't happen same way.

[jazz]

Had an interesting talk with my ag rep. Known the guy for 15yrs. I asked him if farmers are going to double down for 22.

He said not likely. Says industry realignment probably coming. Too many guys over their skis.

I was surprised. We have had weather issues before. Maybe the forward contracts were the final straw and guys will check their risk profile now.

Also said non traditional canola areas will give up on the crop now that they have seen zero.

[blackpowder]

Depending on moisture between now and then, my plan made. No experiments, no changes, chem, fert, seed then choke the jitney. LoL, an old uncle's expression for shut er down. To be differentiated from choke the chicken.

[agstar77]

Bad idea to interfere with contracts. No one learns a lesson
It is unfair to those that are better marketers. Anyone silly enough to forward price without protection should not be subsidized. That said a better stabilization system is needed.

[bucket]

Bad idea to interfere with contracts. No one learns a lesson
It is unfair to those that are better marketers. Anyone silly enough to forward price without protection should not be subsidized. That said a better stabilization system is needed.

Maybe so but those capitalistic farmers that support the Saskparty and the open market can't be set back with a contracting bill, Can they?

Capitalize the profits, socialize the losses.....or something to that effect.

A bit of sarcasm for Friday afternoon....


Maybe a few of these **** of the walk types need a little humility added to their wheelhouse.

[agstar77]

Maybe so but those capitalistic farmers that support the Saskparty and the open market can't be set back with a contracting bill, Can they?

Capitalize the profits, socialize the losses.....or something to that effect.

A bit of sarcasm for Friday afternoon....


Maybe a few of these **** of the walk types need a little humility added to their wheelhouse.

Most of the forward contract guys want the benefits of a free market to get cash. Well read the contract. If you cannot live with don't do it.

[Blaithin]

Maybe just a ceiling on penalties to buy out the contract then. I’ve seen some numbers tossed around that are cringeworthy.

How can one company offer $0/tonne penalties and another over $100? Is the one company a better marketer in that it doesn’t need to penalize or is the other just trying to take advantage and/or make guys roll over tonnes.

[bucket]

Yes well that is too bad, people signed the dotted line and now they want to re-negotiate....good luck

They are not the richest families in Canada for no reason...

They will laugh at Scotty , Davey and others when they go to help out their supporters.

But to be honest , I don't like the government only helping a select few out of their stupid mess.

Made your bed,,,, lie in it..

Or at least make sure the rest of farmers who were more careful get help as well..

We are really past all of this with this drought...the governments are just foot dragging and its not helping.

[agstar77]

Apparently you can get insurance for this loss. Some have it.

[bucket]

Apparently you can get insurance for this loss. Some have it.

I have heard a story about contract shortage loss,,,,guy had a real tough time getting the payment out the private insurer, and the farmer had shares in the plant he was delivering to,,,he had no reason to falsify what he had.

[jazz]

I will just point out that this disaster we are in was not completely a surprise. Everyone knew the soil moisture profile going into seeding and its easy to work out how much moisture was needed to bring a decent canola crop in. That number would have exceeded the usual annual rainfall in some places that attempted to grow it this yr. Our farm weather services like Drew were warning back in march.

Thats not saying Canadian weather cant turn on a dime, it certainly can, but the odds were long that we were going to get 12 inches if rain fall this summer.

[GDR]

I fully understand that it's a tough spot to be in but I would be kinda pissed if the gov steps in to help guys out of contracts. If I have a contract that I can fill but the price has gone up are they gonna compensate me too? It's pretty well the same financial impact.

[Blaithin]

Not sure a prairie wide heat blast to flowering canola is quite as predictable Jazz. Crops around me are fairly good, it’s the canola belt for a reason, but still not a lot of hope for good canola yields because of the heat.

Yeah they knew moisture levels were sub par but they didn’t see 38 degrees cooking their flowers.

[jazz]

Not sure a prairie wide heat blast to flowering canola is quite as predictable Jazz. Crops around me are fairly good, it’s the canola belt for a reason, but still not a lot of hope for good canola yields because of the heat.

Yeah they knew moisture levels were sub par but they didn’t see 38 degrees cooking their flowers.

True enough, those are elements out of all our control, but the forward contracting is something we do have a choice in. I got dozens of those text blasts this spring for locking in fall production. I ignored them all. I would never sign a forward contract before Aug 1.

Maybe predatory marketing should be investigated as well. The AOG clause is obviously useless and these grain companies were more aggressive this year than usual. Farmers with FOMO were a soft target perhaps.

And we have another problem. The signalls in the market are out there now. Canada is short canola and wheat, some other country or countries will step into the fray now in the offseason. $20 canola might be a distant memory soon as Errol points out.