Sunday July 25 market opens down…

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Over $30 range in canola today finished almost at its high, up double digits.
Hopefully some farmers who needed to buy out contracts were able to take advantage and steal some lunch money from the traders who believed Ag Canada's numbers

[jazz]

Over $30 range in canola today finished almost at its high, up double digits.

And another record on the S&P, oil up. Overnight head fake.

I really appreciate errols take on things but he underestimates the influence of the central banks, liquidity and speculation. Fundamentals are out the window it seems.

[GDR]

I thought I had enough hay cut now that it would guarantee a rain. And all of it on ground so low and wet that a good rain would probably render it unsalvageble.

Apparently my Midas touch is broken.

My hay is all done but I cut some in the ditch and a couple misc wet areas trying to get a few more bales so it's out. Also needed the swather as we took a bit of barley for silage and had to move stuff around in the shed to get it out. Left the combine and baler sitting out in the yard for 3 days....still no rain. I dont know what else a white man farmer can do to induce rain in these parts.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

My hay is all done but I cut some in the ditch and a couple misc wet areas trying to get a few more bales so it's out. Also needed the swather as we took a bit of barley for silage and had to move stuff around in the shed to get it out. Left the combine and baler sitting out in the yard for 3 days....still no rain. I dont know what else a white man farmer can do to induce rain in these parts.

Well, whatever you do, just don't do a rain dance or Chuck will be after us for cultural appropriation.
Perhaps order a load of expensive fertilizer and leave it on the truck with no tarp for a few days. Just don't go and broadcast it because that will guarantee it won't rain no matter what's in the forecast. At least that always works for me.

[sumdumguy]

Ontario is getting all the rain, soybeans have wet feet.

[helmsdale]

And another record on the S&P, oil up. Overnight head fake.

I really appreciate errols take on things but he underestimates the influence of the central banks, liquidity and speculation. Fundamentals are out the window it seems.

[TOM4CWB]

Well, whatever you do, just don't do a rain dance or Chuck will be after us for cultural appropriation.
Perhaps order a load of expensive fertilizer and leave it on the truck with no tarp for a few days. Just don't go and broadcast it because that will guarantee it won't rain no matter what's in the forecast. At least that always works for me.

It really looks suspicious that this grain market is running out of steam. South Dakota Spring wheat harvest well under way.. some really low test weights reported... 15-40bu / ac in good areas...

Options being cashed in and straight futures replacing in some circumstances reported by options brokers...

Said many did synthetic puts buying out of the money call early... then going short against them...

Much to learn... What are the chances of Nov21 Canola hitting $1000 now?

Pray for wisdom and rain!
Cheers

[TOM4CWB]

It really looks suspicious that this grain market is running out of steam. South Dakota Spring wheat harvest well under way.. some really low test weights reported... 15-40bu / ac in good areas...

Options being cashed in and straight futures replacing in some circumstances reported by options brokers...

Said many did synthetic puts buying out of the money call early... then going short against them...

Much to learn... What are the chances of Nov21 Canola hitting $1000 now?

Pray for wisdom and rain!
Cheers

Interesting that Nov 21 Canola is $890.90/t tonight... while July 22 is $808.70...

That is an inverse of $82.20/t... normal carry would bring the inverse to well over $100/t.

This should tell us volumes as to where commercials are taking prices to!!!

Am I wrong?

[farming101]

Interesting that Nov 21 Canola is $890.90/t tonight... while July 22 is $808.70...

That is an inverse of $82.20/t... normal carry would bring the inverse to well over $100/t.

This should tell us volumes as to where commercials are taking prices to!!!

Am I wrong?

Not quite sure I follow. Maybe you could rephrase?
When a futures market is in an inverse the carry or cost of holding the physical is still a component of the spread. It's just a lot harder to calculate.
Where there is a functional futures market commercials are just as concerned with spreads and the cost/risk of holding physical product as they are of the actual price of the commodity.

Not related to the topic specifically, but here is a spread chart for the ages. July 21 over Nov 21. Went from +3.50 July 13/20 up to +253.80 May 7 then down to +10 June 28.
Also, good to remember, spreading between crop years is usually not a good idea.

[furrowtickler]

Thanks for insight 101 , always appreciate your marketing knowledge 👍