Sunday July 25 market opens down…

[TOM4CWB]

Well, whatever you do, just don't do a rain dance or Chuck will be after us for cultural appropriation.
Perhaps order a load of expensive fertilizer and leave it on the truck with no tarp for a few days. Just don't go and broadcast it because that will guarantee it won't rain no matter what's in the forecast. At least that always works for me.

It really looks suspicious that this grain market is running out of steam. South Dakota Spring wheat harvest well under way.. some really low test weights reported... 15-40bu / ac in good areas...

Options being cashed in and straight futures replacing in some circumstances reported by options brokers...

Said many did synthetic puts buying out of the money call early... then going short against them...

Much to learn... What are the chances of Nov21 Canola hitting $1000 now?

Pray for wisdom and rain!
Cheers

[TOM4CWB]

It really looks suspicious that this grain market is running out of steam. South Dakota Spring wheat harvest well under way.. some really low test weights reported... 15-40bu / ac in good areas...

Options being cashed in and straight futures replacing in some circumstances reported by options brokers...

Said many did synthetic puts buying out of the money call early... then going short against them...

Much to learn... What are the chances of Nov21 Canola hitting $1000 now?

Pray for wisdom and rain!
Cheers

Interesting that Nov 21 Canola is $890.90/t tonight... while July 22 is $808.70...

That is an inverse of $82.20/t... normal carry would bring the inverse to well over $100/t.

This should tell us volumes as to where commercials are taking prices to!!!

Am I wrong?

[farming101]

Interesting that Nov 21 Canola is $890.90/t tonight... while July 22 is $808.70...

That is an inverse of $82.20/t... normal carry would bring the inverse to well over $100/t.

This should tell us volumes as to where commercials are taking prices to!!!

Am I wrong?

Not quite sure I follow. Maybe you could rephrase?
When a futures market is in an inverse the carry or cost of holding the physical is still a component of the spread. It's just a lot harder to calculate.
Where there is a functional futures market commercials are just as concerned with spreads and the cost/risk of holding physical product as they are of the actual price of the commodity.

Not related to the topic specifically, but here is a spread chart for the ages. July 21 over Nov 21. Went from +3.50 July 13/20 up to +253.80 May 7 then down to +10 June 28.
Also, good to remember, spreading between crop years is usually not a good idea.

[furrowtickler]

Thanks for insight 101 , always appreciate your marketing knowledge 👍