Friday Crop Report on a Thursday!

[crusher]

Breadwinner,

I see you've got a plant from one of my fields. How much of Western Canada looks like this?

[BreadWinner]

I would guess that 75% of Saskatchewan is at least as bad as that plant. The canola production is going to be less than 11 million tons. I will guess it will be closer to 6 million tons. I say that because guys don’t realize how bad it is till you walk out and look. It’s going to be one hell of a market shock.

[WiltonRanch]

I would guess that 75% of Saskatchewan is at least as bad as that plant. The canola production is going to be less than 11 million tons. I will guess it will be closer to 6 million tons. I say that because guys don’t realize how bad it is till you walk out and look. It’s going to be one hell of a market shock.

It is that bad. The heat completely wrecked the 2021 canola crop over most of western Canada. My average is 40 to 45 bpa and this year there is enough pod at best for 20 bpa. Farm average will be 15 bpa. This area fared better than most everyone else. I think 10 million tonnes max. Following year if moisture doesn’t improve there’ll be like 12 million acres and less tonnes than 2021. Too expensive and risky even if $20/bu. Really wondered fiscal soundness or even thought into building all the extra crush capacity. We’ve had a run of decent productivity years. Could have 15 poor years and not enough product to keep them full. Better off putting money into developing lentils suited for the north. Next big demand is India as population surpasses China.

[Guest]

APAS president tells media he will have an average crop....basically saying what's everyone else's problem...no problems here.

So you have a guy that gets the government ear .... that knows there is alot of hurt ...just ignoring it.


What party will Tool Lewis run for ?

What the **** is wrong with these guys
He should of used this opportunity to talk about Prairie drought ?

[Guest]

The sad thing is they will tell us crop was indeed 19 MMT , Neil was right after all ,
And all of sudden canola will be $30 a bushel
But canola crop will still have been 19 MMT
you see anyone questioning the last two years unbelievable numbers , other than larry ?
What they are doing should be called out as the fraud it is

[furrowtickler]

Some canola looks ok from the road but when you walk in it’s a shocker. These plants have lots of pods but only 4 will have seeds in them.

Yup , that was apparent 10 days ago

[Blaithin]

Posted these two barley fields before. Right seeded ~10 days before the left, really for smoked in the end of June.



Here’s the heads today.

Right field. Not sure in variety, most likely synergy.


And the left field, a drought tolerant variety.




There are some heads that have aborted the tops off. Sometimes close to half, sometimes just the top couple. But really quite surprised at how it’s doing. Head shots are directly across the fence from one another. Area has got about 6/10 of rain since June 10th I think they said.

[shtferbrains]

The sad thing is they will tell us crop was indeed 19 MMT , Neil was right after all ,
And all of sudden canola will be $30 a bushel
But canola crop will still have been 19 MMT
you see anyone questioning the last two years unbelievable numbers , other than larry ?
What they are doing should be called out as the fraud it is

19mmt is the number stats can puts out for us to see but also the whole world uses that official number in estimating available world production.
Read a report out of Poland referencing Canadian drought conditions and then using that number to basicly say some were spinning the drought for more than it was.
It's official folks! 19mmt forcast.
Tom posted 70% of western Canada had 25% normal rainfall. So 75% at 20 to 40% normal and the other 25% at 60 to 75% ? More or less 8mmt?
Officialy 19mmt.

[GDR]

19mmt is the number stats can puts out for us to see but also the whole world uses that official number in estimating available world production.
Read a report out of Poland referencing Canadian drought conditions and then using that number to basicly say some were spinning the drought for more than it was.
It's official folks! 19mmt forcast.
Tom posted 70% of western Canada had 25% normal rainfall. So 75% at 20 to 40% normal and the other 25% at 60 to 75% ? More or less 8mmt?
Officialy 19mmt.

Like someone mentioned a few days ago, might be best for the world to think we have 19mmt and then be suprised later than to think we have none and find alternatives and stick us with $10 bids with 15bu crops.

[TOM4CWB]

19mmt is the number stats can puts out for us to see but also the whole world uses that official number in estimating available world production.
Read a report out of Poland referencing Canadian drought conditions and then using that number to basicly say some were spinning the drought for more than it was.
It's official folks! 19mmt forcast.
Tom posted 70% of western Canada had 25% normal rainfall. So 75% at 20 to 40% normal and the other 25% at 60 to 75% ? More or less 8mmt?
Officialy 19mmt.

SFB,
Let’s do it this way
22.5 m acres x .25 x 1t/ac = 5.625mmt
22.5 m acres x .75 x .4t/ac = 6.75mmt
= 12.375mmt Canola with out big rains in the next week.
How can barley be better than 45%- 60% with some rain 1"+ this week...?
50% Pea crop?
60% Lentil crop?
60% CPS/ CWRS /Durum WHT crop?
Looks to me like Canola is the one crop rain would still help fill, after Wednesday August 4 the other crops are basically set in yield for 2021 in western Canada.

This Canola and most of our Peas had April Edge applied,,, sure took the pressure off post emerge herbicides.


Cheers, will do a tour and report after tomorrow night.