Canola Crop estimated at 19.0 MMT

[jazz]

What happened to 25mmt by 2025???????

Maybe we should take a page out of the oil playbook, less supply, higher prices.

I think Canada is already peak canola (acres). Worry about getting it crushed and in bottle with DDGS and a biodiesel blend out the back door should be new strategy.

[furrowtickler]

That actually a cruel joke , not sure what’s going on but it’s nearly blatant market manipulation with those numbers

[Guest]

Canada canola production will be well below these crazy highball production totals. Analysts don't buy into these bogus estimates anyway . . . .

But remember this is a world market, not just a western Canada market. Trade winds shift, substitution occurs and Asia financial markets are now breaking down . . . .

someone is watching if you follow the canola market
must be time for china to find 10 MMT they forgot about , stats can too

[jazz]

someone is watching if you follow the canola market
must be time for china to find 10 MMT they forgot about , stats can too

That statement is more true than you know. The chinese intervened in the copper market a couple weeks ago and released a bunch of stock piled product they have been sitting on for yrs.

What if they are sitting on warehouses of canola and will send it back here for twice the price they paid.

IMO, Canada will have to double down on canola for 22 or we will lose market share. The market will need some signal that we are just temporarily out of the game.

[LWeber]

Analysts don't buy into these bogus estimates anyway . . . .

19.885 MMT - Analyst generated
19.100 MMT - Analyst generated
19.000 MMT - Analyst generated
16.885 MMT - Analyst generated

What is the point you're trying to make? That some analysts are bogus?

[jamesb]

That statement is more true than you know. The Chinese intervened in the copper market a couple weeks ago and released a bunch of stock piled product they have been sitting on for yrs.

What if they are sitting on warehouses of canola and will send it back here for twice the price they paid.

IMO, Canada will have to double down on canola for 22 or we will lose market share. The market will need some signal that we are just temporarily out of the game.

Yes wouldn't be surprised to see stocks manipulated. For 2022 though I am at max canola acres this year and have been for a few in what I feel is a sustainable rotation. If other commodities were down then canola would have a easier time to increase but with other lower cost crops viable choices it is easy to grow different things.
For me its kind of funny. Most of us here I'm thinking feel the same way about what this canola crop will end up like but for some like Larry alluded to (don't know who that was) are still seeing what would be a sort of normal crop in a way. Where do they see that? or are they just blindly reading stats can data?
Its interesting to follow the ND wheat tour these past couple days and how that would be interesting in a canola setting. Some guys I know in far higher yielding areas for canola in more northern regions of the prairies are in a real wreck. Many of these guys never seen this bad. In my tours this summer the south east is not near as bad as some areas further north. I remember wreck in 88 well but with modern farming , and just plain luck in getting one rain mid june have made sort of a crop. With the heat lots of guys are opening pods to see if anything is there. I will say this, that LL357 is a hell a lot more drought tolerant than old Weststar. Man things are uneven, but with the straighting varieties today , leave her stand and it will all ripen in the end.

[Sheepwheat]

Westar seed price per acre was probably two bucks an acre tho. Ok, maybe four bucks treated! And if we had treated westar like we baby these varieties today, who knows?

I still would love to do a trial using today’s practices on old varieties.

[Guest]

Westar seed price per acre was probably two bucks an acre tho. Ok, maybe four bucks treated! And if we had treated westar like we baby these varieties today, who knows?

I still would love to do a trial using today’s practices on old varieties.

They would put you in Jail for that

[jamesb]

Westar seed price per acre was probably two bucks an acre tho. Ok, maybe four bucks treated! And if we had treated westar like we baby these varieties today, who knows?

I still would love to do a trial using today’s practices on old varieties.

I wish we had Counter or Furadan

[TraderJoe]

Wow, even dickhead Neil has it lower than 19!! LOL
https://www.realagriculture.com/2021/07/short-crop-and-killing-demand-the-bull-is-loose-on-canola/