Early yields?

[bigzee]

Here’s my opinion for what its worth.

Obviously, we as farmers know the situation out there.
Yes, there are “small” pockets where the crop is mediocre at best. I personally think it’s time we stop talking about it. We all want high prices all the time, this year is no exception with the way things have played out. It’s like asking for the same Christmas gift over and over.

Grain companies and the trade know what has happened and will down play it till the bitter end.
Just because guys come on and say yields of 6-7 isn’t going to put the prices up. The bitching and bellyaching won’t do much to change the mind of the buyers.

They know there are bills to pay and they have to be paid their yr end bonuses. If you can lock the bins do so, only haul out to pay bills and leave the rest.
Don’t get me wrong I want to make money too, breaking even isn’t part of the game. But I think prices will take care of themselves. I could take pics all day of the catastrophic crops that are being cut for feed and post till I’m blue in my face. At the end we have no control of prices.

Whatever I’m going to get I will be more than thankful, I have friends who won’t cut anything. I feel bad for them, they have worked hard and spent like everyone else.

I hope I haven’t offended anyone in my rant!!

Over and out

[furrowtickler]

I suspect at best, that whomever is actually paying hard currency for this information, deems this information to be very reliable, or at worst, finds this sort of dare i say, "fake news", to be very valuable.

Good point , in a world where media and certain people even on here are continually screaming about misinformation, 19 mmt of canola is one of the worst forms of misinformation in decades .

[TOM4CWB]

I suspect at best, that whomever is actually paying hard currency for this information, deems this information to be very reliable, or at worst, finds this sort of dare i say, "fake news", to be very valuable.

Our estimates are no more or less accurate… what is harvested and is marketable is what counts.
We need to encourage our producer groups to have a field harvest tour just like Wheat growers just did State side.
Furthermore a good to excellent, fair, poor crop ratings system in Canada (with creditable estimates like USDA does) would be helpful to cause accountability for those making production estimates.

Those of us on the ground proofing our production estimates are no more or less right… until the harvest is complete and accurately determined like Crop Insurance completes.

Cheers

[bucket]

Our estimates are no more or less accurate… what is harvested and is marketable is what counts.
We need to encourage our producer groups to have a field harvest tour just like Wheat growers just did State side.
Furthermore a good to excellent, fair, poor crop ratings system in Canada (with creditable estimates like USDA does) would be helpful to cause accountability for those making production estimates.

Those of us on the ground proofing our production estimates are no more or less right… until the harvest is complete and accurately determined like Crop Insurance completes.

Cheers

It's called an open and transparent market in the states for a reason...

All the Ritz cheerleaders never understood what that meant exactly...I think they have almost figured it out in the last year or two.

American farmers have an effective lobby as well...Canadians are going to need one sooner than later.

[agstar77]

Wheat markets on the rise again in the U.S. Combines are rolling in wheat
. Should be numbers by the end of the week. Dust coming out of the combines no straw left.

[tweety]

Good point , in a world where media and certain people even on here are continually screaming about misinformation, 19 mmt of canola is one of the worst forms of misinformation in decades .

It's a misprint, it is actually 19 mt. Thank the Romans for the confusion.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

It's a misprint, it is actually 19 mt. Thank the Romans for the confusion.

So that would be 19 metric Tonnes total, almost half a super B.
Almost as believable...
Or 19 million short tons. Not as believable.

[Old Cowzilla]

While at the community well this morn my neighbor said his winter wheat did 28. That's hauled straight to town from the combine and that was off some pretty good dirt. Hope to bale some barley tonight after changing a barring this afternoon in the toasty 30 + farmyard with no wind off course.

[TOM4CWB]

Did crop scouting north and found my Nieghbours combine!



Some yellow peas just south of Fort Saskatchewan a few miles, It was drizzling about 19 moisture and between 25-30bu/ac hopefully on this field



This field is a few miles south east of Fort Saskatchewan… not likely to make 20 by the looks of things.



This is Canola a mile further south, little lighter land but seldom yields under 1t/ac..: excel… like Crusher was saying thinly poorly podded plants… sure hope we get some rain to fill what is there!



Light land that is a little Sandy really stinks out this year… crazy as it was the best last year when it was wet!
Cheers

[TOM4CWB]

I checked out our CWRS Wheat today… what a change!
Viewfield is almost ready to harvest, just a few low spots greenish…sample I thrashed out 12moiisture very hard…

IMG]https://www.agriville.com/upload_image/uploades/medium/9261627963718.jpg[/IMG]


Perhaps 35bu/ac…





The Ellerslie is not filling as nicely next to the trees it is skinny for 30’ out,,,shriveled sample next to main field…18-20moisture for the better filled kernels.


The Alberta Agriculture report looks very well done I just read here on crop conditions.
maybe 45bu/ac…

Alberta Yield Estimates Way Down from Year Ago
Aug 02, 2021

Subscribe to our Newsletters
Alberta crop condition ratings and early yield estimates are down sharply, as more hot, dry weather has led to the continued deterioration of annual and perennial crops.

The latest bi-weekly crop report on Friday pegged overall crop conditions across the province at under 20% good to excellent as of Tuesday. That is down from 37% good to excellent just two weeks earlier and is roughly 50 points below the five- and 10-year averages. As recently as mid-June, Alberta crops were rated over 80% good to excellent and above the five and 10-year averages.

Meanwhile, the first yield estimates of the season put this year’s average spring wheat yield in the province at just 29.5 bu/acre, 48% below the province’s 2020 average of 56.8 bu. The average canola yield is seen falling to just under 25 bu/acre, versus 40.2 bu last year, while the projected oat and barley yields of 46.7 and 36.3 bu/acre are down from 85.9 and 74 bu a year ago. Dry pea yields are expected to average 22.4 bu/acre, compared to 41.5 bu in 2020.

Yield potential in the province’s South Region is the worst, forecasted at roughly half of normal. In contrast, yields in the North West are expected to average nearly 70% of normal.

Crop conditions in the Central region experienced the most significant reduction with a 43-point decline over the past two weeks to fall to just 16% good to excellent. Crop conditions in the South (24% good to excellent), North East (21%), and North West (20%), which all experienced close to a 10-point decline. The Peace region faired the better with less than a 5-point decrease to 15% good to excellent.

The provincial spring wheat and durum crops were rated about 22% good to excellent as of Tuesday, down from 39% and 32% two weeks earlier. The oat and barley crops came in at 20% and 18% good to excellent, versus 34% and 41% two weeks ago, while the condition of the canola crop dropped 16 points to 17% good to excellent.

At 18% and 21% good to excellent, the condition of the pea and lentil crops was down from 36% and 31% two weeks previously. At 28% and 30% good to excellent, the mustard and flax crops were holding up relatively better although still down from 42% and 31% two weeks earlier.

Meanwhile, the report suggested further condition declines are likely due to forecasted high temperatures for the upcoming week.

Crop staging for spring cereals is mid-way through the milk stage while fall cereals are in the hard dough, as compared to the five-year averages of completed flowering and soft dough respectively. Oilseeds are 79% podding, well ahead of the five-year average of 43 per cent, while dry peas are at 97% podding, well ahead of the five-year average of 77%.

Region One: South (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)

• High temperatures and lack of any notable rainfall in the region this week continue to take a toll on dryland crops.

• Overall, crop conditions are 36 per cent, below the five-year average of 60 per cent good or excellent. Conditions rating for sugar beets are 79 per cent, potatoes 52 per cent, and dry beans at 95 per cent good or excellent.

• Crop stages for spring cereals are mostly in the mid to late milk stage, while fall-seeded cereals are entering the ripening stage. Canola is over 83 per cent podding and pulses are over 95 per cent podding. • Pasture is currently rated as 51 per cent poor, 32 per cent fair, 16 per cent good, and 1 per cent excellent.

• First-cut dryland hay is reported as 99 per cent completed with estimated yields of 0.8 ton per acre and quality rated as 33 per cent good or excellent. First-cut irrigated hay is 100 per cent complete with estimates of 2.2 ton per acre yields, and 58 per cent rated as good or excellent quality. Second-cut irrigated hay is six per cent complete with 1.9 ton per acre yield estimates and quality ratings are at 54 per cent good or excellent.

Region Two: Central (Rimbey, Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen)

• Hail, sometimes severe, accompanied rain in the northern and western parts of region. Extreme hot and dry conditions continue in the south and eastern parts of the region.

• Overall, crop conditions are 59 per cent, below the five-year average of 75 per cent good or excellent. Crop stages for spring cereals are mostly in the early to mid-milk stage, while fall-seeded cereals are in the soft to hard dough stage. Canola is 75 per cent podding and pulses are at least 90 per cent podding. • Pasture is currently rated as 39 per cent poor, 36 per cent fair, and 25 per cent good.

• First-cut dryland hay is reported as 96 per cent completed with estimated yields of 1.2 ton per acre and quality rated as 54 per cent good or excellent. First-cut irrigated hay is 100 per cent complete with estimates of 2.0 ton per acre yields, and 70 per cent rated as good or excellent quality. Second-cut irrigated hay has not started.

Region Three: North East (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)

• Scattered rains over parts of the region will help fill the crops. Bonnyville, St. Paul, and Wainwright areas also reported smoke and cool temperatures slowing crop advancement.

• Overall, crop conditions are 63 per cent, below the five-year average of 83 per cent good or excellent. • Crop stages for spring cereals are mostly in the early to mid-milk stage, while fall-seeded cereals have started to ripen. Canola is 73 per cent podding and dry peas have finished podding.

• Pasture is currently rated as 67 per cent poor, 18 per cent fair, and 15 per cent good.

• First-cut dryland hay is reported as 95 per cent completed with estimated yields of 0.9 ton per acre and quality rated as 78 per cent good or excellent.

Region Four: North West (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley, Athabasca)

• Sporadic rain was received throughout the region this week, which will help fill the existing heads and pods.

• Overall, crop conditions are 43 per cent, below the five-year average of 63 per cent good or excellent. • Crop stages for spring cereals are mostly in the mid to late milk stage, while fall-seeded cereals are in the early to soft dough stage. Canola is 70 per cent podding and dry peas are 94 per cent podding.

• Pasture is currently rated as 44 per cent poor, 44 per cent fair, and 12 per cent good.

• First-cut dryland hay is reported as 99 per cent completed with estimated yields of 1.2 ton per acre and quality rated as 58 per cent good or excellent.

Region Five: Peace (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview)

• Isolated showers and smoke was common throughout region. The showers are helping to fill out the canola and cereal crops.

• Overall, crop conditions are 57 per cent, below the five-year average of 72 per cent good or excellent. • Crop stages for spring cereals are mostly in the mid to late milk stage, canola is 93 per cent podding and dry peas have finished podding.

• Pasture is currently rated as 63 per cent poor, 32 per cent fair, and 5 per cent good.

• First-cut dryland hay is reported as 97 per cent completed with estimated yields of 0.8 ton per acre and quality rated as 20 per cent good or excellent.

If someone from AB Ag looked this Friday [August 6] at the stage of wheat and peas, they would know they miscalculated how far along the 2021 crop truly is. The above pictures of August 2 with pea harvest and spring wheat dead ripe in the Edmonton area... tells volumes as dry areas in Eastern AB, SK and MB are at least as far along as the Edmonton East area.

I saw a harvested cereal field already round bailed the straw... coming in from Spruce Grove this afternoon Edmonton West.