Barley shortage

[TOM4CWB]

I spoke to a buyer today and according to him
Much of the canola crop will be sample due
To weight and seed size (dockage) which will be a
major factor In feed rations. How much can canola
be used In livestock feed? I wonder if the standard
For grading will be lowered or be as is?

A new export market for Australian Barley! No need for China to take it this year as we will need it in western Canada!!!

Feed wheat will be an interesting market to watch, normally a substitution for barley... but high protein in the thin shriveled wheat will need to be blended out... how 1 month of no rain can change everything in western Canada!

[Grahamp]

Sorry, when I think in terms of greed and fear as the emotions that drive the market i don’t think of them as character qualities or virtues and vices. I simply think of fear as worry that price will go down and greed as a desire for prices to rise. If I had a 35 bushel barley crop as the OP spoke of and I was offered 11.25 per bushel I think you should let fear take over and take that price as I don’t think you will get higher than that with corn at 5.5. Of course I think farmers should extract every single penny of value they can. In fact I think if a farmer is ever accused of price gouging he should get an award.

[Old Cowzilla]

Feedlots switch to whatever feed ration gives them their best bang for their buck. There's always a limit to the price spread between corn and barley. This isn,t there first rodeo. Going to be lots of different rations this winter for cattle, water now that's a different story.

[burnt]

Once feedlots switch rations, they don’t go back. Reliable, dependable supply is forefront with cattle feeders.

Barley domestic and export demand will decline this crop year.

Economics always rule - both ways.

[jazz]

I spoke to a buyer today and according to him
Much of the canola crop will be sample due
To weight and seed size (dockage) which will be a
major factor In feed rations. How much can canola
be used In livestock feed? I wonder if the standard
For grading will be lowered or be as is?

We sold a lot of heated canola in 2019 to feedlot alley. Are they going to pay $14 a bu for sample?

In 2019 it was $5.50.

If they start grading hard on canola you can bet the bins will get locked even longer.

[WiltonRanch]

We sold a lot of heated canola in 2019 to feedlot alley. Are they going to pay $14 a bu for sample?

In 2019 it was $5.50.

If they start grading hard on canola you can bet the bins will get locked even longer.

Exactly. Most canola acres will be in a claim position and furthermore poor grade will increase the claim. Any canola you have will be best not to sell too soon.

[shtferbrains]

Might not be any shortage of feed ingredients this year.

[furrowtickler]

A new export market for Australian Barley! No need for China to take it this year as we will need it in western Canada!!!

Feed wheat will be an interesting market to watch, normally a substitution for barley... but high protein in the thin shriveled wheat will need to be blended out... how 1 month of no rain can change everything in western Canada!

Problem is from what I was told, Barley acres in Australia are down 28% year over year .

[bigzee]

I have 2700 bu of 57 lb barley left from 2020 crop.
Do I lock the bin door?
I’m taking only serious offers. 😎

[Sodbuster]

Absolutely, market after Christmas.

[bucket]

Do they still have escalator contracts??...when you sign you get the base price and ..if the price goes up between now and delivery period you get to share the increase...


Good for both sides really...it's like paying for storage...

[WiltonRanch]

Corn is king. If there is enough corn available in the USA the feeders will be fine. Albeit cog will be brutal and they won’t pay us for our calves. I’d be more worried about the cow calf guys with no feed or grass. We lose another 50% of that sector, the feeders, and packers out here suffer down the line. Retail side don’t care. They’ll source wherever while our domestic industry loses share. Far as feeding canola or any other interesting feed stuffs. You can feed 5% of the ration as canola without any worries. Local plant here has been extracting protein from buggered canola for years and selling to hog guys. Heck if it all goes to hell you can feed urea based supplement in wood shavings. Ask the Aussie’s how to get cows through.

[Blaithin]

Absolutely, market after Christmas.

If you wait too long and they all switch to corn there won’t be a feedlot to market too. Be stuck finding little guys willing to pay high.

Tight line to walk.

[Old Cowzilla]

Cargill will do whatever it takes to hold on to their margins being made on the livestock side.

[ALBERTAFARMER4]

Uh oh, a big scary train full of corn is coming from the USA! Better panic sell now.