Barley shortage

[bucket]

I and many others have sold barley or I should say have given it away for such a ridiculously low price that none of us should feel the least amount of guilt for getting 8 or even 10 now. I’m talking about all that was sold for $1 to $2/bus. I know I could use quite a few sales at $8 to average up

Yes I know it cost less to grow it then but the way costs are increasing maybe in the future we’ll need $6 or $8 to make it feasible.

And for you grain marketing “experts” on here who don’t farm but are full of wisdom about grain prices. I have a question for you. What kinds of jobs did you do to subsidize your income like farmers have had to do to keep operating and providing you with cheap food????

That is a good question for Errol, or Neil, Or Bruce.

BTW , as of today , I don't know of one rancher with a cheque from the announcement on August 10th by the Sask government.

[sumdumguy]

You can’t feel bad for not getting the top price. Some average up in a bouyant market, then try to catch a falling knife as prices decline. Always satisfied at high offers that present every decade or so. My very cool friend sells and says, “ One can’t smell every fart”. 😂

[errolanderson]

With all due respect Errol your sounding
Like many of rhe analysts that are looking at only one
The price side of rhe equation for farmers.
These aren’t high prices with a crap crop.
And the vultures are swirling nutrien fcc banks
Etc etc. There’s a shitstorm coming like rhe province
Hasn’t seen for quite some time.

I'm just presenting the other side of the coin, which is just as important.

The marketplace will re-balance itself. Demand is actually more important than supply in any commodity market in the current global market.

[shtferbrains]

A long time ago I took a marketing coarse from 2 young guys. I think thier names were Greg and Errol. They had just lost thier job when Alberta government did a big across the board cut back.

Nobody paid for market advice in those days.
They were basicly pathfinders. Not much money in that. Probably some not so good days But they stuck around and see to be successful in the long run.

Don't shoot the messenger.
They arn't charging you.

[the big wheel]

I'm just presenting the other side of the coin, which is just as important.

The marketplace will re-balance itself. Demand is actually more important than supply in any commodity market in the current global market.

As I said we are both likely correct. If there
Is no supply in markets that are established
To be wanted and needed pretty sure that helps
Price and more so controls price in times like these
Animals have to be fed everyday there is no
Other option to that short term.

The marketplace will rebalance itself……..is that kinda
Like the economy will take care of itself? Lol omg
Truduea was right? Lol the market is so distorted
By American and other country subsidies also this
Has created more problems for us here in Canada
As we virtually have nothing for subsidies comparatively.
We just have a big lie Agristsbility and as I have shown
A flawed crop insurance. Which are only good
When you have good runs of weather. But
Are a disaster themselves when you get into
Multi year problems. For one thing premiums
Should be higher for higher coverage but it’s
The opposite for crop insurance. It’s bizarre. When
We had better runs of weather I was able to pay
More for better coverage and didn’t mind
By here we are hammered by. I crop no coverage
And a higher premium than guys who have
Way higher coverage how dumb is that? Thinking
Has to change this is t just like auto insurance
This is livelihood insurance. Supposed to be
Stabilizing when in fact it has become more
If a burden than good.

What a lot of people are missing is rhe drastic
Rise in costs for all farmers grain and cattle therefore
There has to be an established new level of acceptance
Of our prices For our product.

[errolanderson]

China's corn buying binge appears rapidly slowing. China is now expecting a bumper crop as farmers there hiked corn plantings sharply. USDA expectations of China purchasing 26 million MT this year is likely too high (IMO).

Translation . . . no shortage of U.S. corn through the 2021-22 crop year. Corn futures remain under pressure.

[farming101]

Latest WASDE had China corn production up 8MMT and ending stocks steady

[farming101]

There were a few thin swaths of barley in the neighborhood.
They will be solid rows of green soon.
Might be able to rake and bale?
Stocks not going higher....

[TASFarms]

Believe in China corn stocks less than you would stats can or the usda. China is buying less because there is less to buy. China would be buying more if they could.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Here is pricing details on train loads of corn into southern AB. $9.22 per bushel.
Still not cheap. Purchaser I talked to a month or more ago said it would work out to $8.15 equivalent barley price, delivered into southern AB. Give or take the price movement in corn.
How does that compare to $9.22 for a 54 lb bushel of corn, when feed value is considered?
Also noteworthy is that Agfinity have no offers for barley right now. Could be because the bids dropped about 70 cents in about a week recently? Or are all offers picked up immediately?

[Guest]

China's corn buying binge appears rapidly slowing. China is now expecting a bumper crop as farmers there hiked corn plantings sharply. USDA expectations of China purchasing 26 million MT this year is likely too high (IMO).

Translation . . . no shortage of U.S. corn through the 2021-22 crop year. Corn futures remain under pressure.

Well if the market goes back to old prices we’re fu cked
It is undoable
Glyphosate has doubled since spring
So have most fertilizers
Parts are at least double, etc, etc , etc
Wonder why someone doesn’t analyze the input side instead of the commodity prices ?
And this drought is far from over

[bucket]

Well if the market goes back to old prices we’re fu cked
It is undoable
Glyphosate has doubled since spring
So have most fertilizers
Parts are at least double, etc, etc , etc
Wonder why someone doesn’t analyze the input side instead of the commodity prices ?
And this drought is far from over

You won't see a saskeverything press release about this issue like the one about farmers begging for mercy from graincos .

It hasn't hit the board members wallets yet.