Canola Yields!

[BreadWinner]

I think it’s going to depend on how much rain fell from the sky.
Those with:
2 inches or less 25%of last year
2-4 inches 30-50% of last year
4-6 will be 50-75% of last year
6 plus will be in the $$$$

My guess is 75% of the province is less than 4 inches of rain.
15% is in the 4-6 category
Only 10% will be in the 6 plus category.

[WiltonRanch]

From elevator email today:
Dismal numbers released out of Alberta for expected average yields. Spring wheat at 29.5 bu/ac which is a 48% drop from last year. Canola at 25 bu/ac versus 40.2 last year. Barley at 36.3 bu/ac versus 74 last year. Peas at 22.4 bu/ac versus 41.5 last year.


Getting closer to reality.
I'm not even certain these numbers are attainable.

619 road south of vermilion guys chopping canola. Someone better be getting 60 bu yields to avg out 25. Central AB has some decent stands but enough poor ones too. Been away touring past 4 days. Been getting rains at the ranch but it’s too late now.

[furrowtickler]

I think it’s going to depend on how much rain fell from the sky.
Those with:
2 inches or less 25%of last year
2-4 inches 30-50% of last year
4-6 will be 50-75% of last year
6 plus will be in the $$$$

My guess is 75% of the province is less than 4 inches of rain.
15% is in the 4-6 category
Only 10% will be in the 6 plus category.

I would say you are probably bang on
We are in the under 4 in range .
Sad part is showers starting to come through now , but we will just hold that 30-50% yield at best no matter what now .
No doubt many areas much worse and a few much better

[furrowtickler]

619 road south of vermilion guys chopping canola. Someone better be getting 60 bu yields to avg out 25. Central AB has some decent stands but enough poor ones too. Been away touring past 4 days. Been getting rains at the ranch but it’s too late now.

Agree too late for the worst damaged areas of canola

Later Cereals will fill decent in some areas

Was nice to see a decent pocket of crops north of Lashburn today . They will do well . Not a big area but some nice crops there . I think they had a huge soil moisture reserve from the past few years .

[WiltonRanch]

Agree too late for the worst damaged areas of canola

Later Cereals will fill decent in some areas

Was nice to see a decent pocket of crops north of Lashburn today . They will do well . Not a big area but some nice crops there . I think they had a huge soil moisture reserve from the past few years .

Yes just north of town beautiful land and beautiful stands. Across the gully flat land crops are okay but hills north of that are clay loam and look rough.

[SASKFARMER]

When you do the math no 70 bus crops in sask maybe a few 50 to 55 but most 25 or less down to 5 bus or less.

Its a shit show boys and girls a total shit show.

[Maver]

Yup it's bad. The "good from the road " canola, looks terrible from the road now. I don't even want to walk through it.

[BreadWinner]

I think it’s going to depend on how much rain fell from the sky.
Those with:
2 inches or less 25%of last year
2-4 inches 30-50% of last year
4-6 will be 50-75% of last year
6 plus will be in the $$$$

My guess is 75% of the province is less than 4 inches of rain.
15% is in the 4-6 category
Only 10% will be in the 6 plus category.

Using this formula these will be the production numbers comparing to last year.
canola 8.73mmt from 19mmt
wheat 12.42mmt from 27mmt
durum 2.8mmt from 6.2mmt
barley 4.71mmt from 10.25mmt
oats 2.07mmt from 4.5mmt
approx 46% of last years production, scary part is these yields might be a bit optimistic!!

[Austrian Economics]

Canola stands west of Winnipeg are highly variable; a few places got some heavy rain showers that others did not.

Most of the canola got reasonably tall, but most stands look very thin now that the flowers are gone. Some of the blooms looked promising for a while but once the petals fell off it seems like many of them never produced a pod.

[jazz]

6 plus will be in the $$$$

We got 7 inches here plus that april snow dump but there is still only 70-75% of a normal crop here. Heat still took bushels. Crop can only take so many 30+ deg days

No way the better areas are going to bring the averages up like they think.