Canola Yields!

[Guest]

I know it
You know it
Everyone knows it
It’s a sick sick f u c k ing game

[BreadWinner]

Your right those Lucky spots that got the rain didn’t escape all those 30Plus days. If you pull plants I bet there is 25% blanks on the plant. So not very likely anything will yield as much as last year.

[LWeber]

Using this formula these will be the production numbers comparing to last year.
canola 8.73mmt from 19mmt
yields might be a bit optimistic!!

there are 1,695,900 more canola acres in 2021 than 2020.
Not dissing your estimates; however, you need to look at acres too.

L

[BreadWinner]

Those extra acres might add another.75mmt to the canola, still sub 10 mmt

[LWeber]

Those extra acres might add another.75mmt to the canola, still sub 10 mmt

CCAP data was released this morning and yields fell below 2002 levels for the first time in my model; you are closer than anyone I've seen BW; the rest of the analysts that WAG should just STFU

Still looking for the barchart genius that was on here...

I'm going to post the CCAP maps in a different thread

[Austrian Economics]

We got 7 inches here plus that april snow dump but there is still only 70-75% of a normal crop here. Heat still took bushels. Crop can only take so many 30+ deg days

No way the better areas are going to bring the averages up like they think.

Around here the canola that was seeded a bit deeper fared the best. Shallow seeded crops got beat up badly when the ground temperature soared.

[shtferbrains]

How many acres were poor last yr.
That is one thing I hadn't considered.
Will know much better in 2 wks

[rumrocks]

Walked into a canola field that is probably a week away from straight cutting, one thing I noticed after shelling out a hand full of pods and chewing the seeds is the lack of oil in your mouth, its more like chewing the meal after it's been rolled.
This crop might do 10 - 15 bu.

[Herc]

Made one up and down with the swather. Its worse than I even thought. Won’t make 10 bpa. Canola tastes like shit. Guess sell mine before they all take notice....

I really wish the white combine comes before I waste anymore time on this year....

[BreadWinner]

Here is our earlier estimates

[Marusko]

results are in, 40bpa. Bring on the dislikes.

Surprised, looked like 30bpa max. We had 5" of rain from May1 to Aug15 (start of swathing) which is a little over half of normal. So drought didn't hit hard here like in other places.

[agstar77]

results are in, 40bpa. Bring on the dislikes.

Surprised, looked like 30bpa max. We had 5" of rain from May1 to Aug15 (start of swathing) which is a little over half of normal. So drought didn't hit hard here like in other places.

The round is on you!

[fjlip]

We have a MAX number, any other bids? 33 whole farm average here...25-35 quite typical in area.

[bucket]

results are in, 40bpa. Bring on the dislikes.

Surprised, looked like 30bpa max. We had 5" of rain from May1 to Aug15 (start of swathing) which is a little over half of normal. So drought didn't hit hard here like in other places.

Good for you it's nice to hear good news stories.

[Marusko]

The round is on you!

I'm in haha. It's amazing how much the plants can produce when they look like they're really struggling. Seems we had 1/3rd of the plant mass compared to the 50-60bu crops in years past.

Other surprise was 35bu/ac out of a thin stand of 18-24" high faba beans. That's short a bushel or two of header loss, plants were so short the pods would burst open on the d****r and bounce seeds back out ahead of the knife.

I have to give credit to carryover subsoil moisture from the excess of last year. Doubt we'd have the same yields next year with an identical weather pattern.