Anyone want to WAG a production estimate after looking at this?

[LWeber]

This is brutal and will only get worse...

[blackpowder]

Uffda!

[furrowtickler]

Confirms what many on here have been saying and seeing first hand on their own farms and in travel all over western Canada .
You simply can not beat experienced eyes and boots on the ground

Those maps absolutely confirm what most are saying here

[Guest]

Don’t these dumb pricks making these bonehead yield estimates know how heat and no water is NFG?

[bucket]

hahahahahaha...they should have been using that map since last september...but that wouldn't fit their narrative.....would it...

This might not either ...

But their might be a whole lot explaining to do....


On a side note .....does anyone think another 400000 acres of irrigation will help with that map?????

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Is it possible to create the same map but without the pasture only crops?
I think there are some areas within central Alberta that would look quite a lot different (better) are still doing well. Well and things have deteriorated that much quicker.
Do these maps take into account accelerated maturity? Much higher than average heat units?
I would think a ripe crop on this date would show up much lower than a grass green on the same date on a normal year, even if the yield potential were the same.

Either way, it is definitely bad and that map shows how much better 2002 was.

[BreadWinner]

I sometimes wonder if the people putting out these estimates even look at the crops. These maps tell the truth it’s bad… real bad.

[the big wheel]

Cmon people kind obviously 19 mmt of canola!!! Lmao

That’s just a big coffee stain.

[AC man]

[ATTACH]8332[/ATTACH]

This is brutal and will only get worse...

Thanks Larry for showing how wide spread this drought is. You are the only one telling the truth amongst commodity groups. You have a lot of respect from farmers for being on our side. Thank you!!!!

[LWeber]

Thanks Larry for showing how wide spread this drought is. You are the only one telling the truth amongst commodity groups. You have a lot of respect from farmers for being on our side. Thank you!!!!

Thank you for your kind words. I don't get how some are so far out to lunch while estimating yields. I've been running my model since the end of June and have been scared to print the results because they were so ugl and then along comes BW and nearly nails it. I'm in the 8th year of this model that incorps NDVI data and rain totals by RM or county; failing that, by Census District.

There are a whack of ppl who weren't around in 2002 and 1988 that will get a rude awakening. Rain was born in 2005. She wasn't named Rain because we were in a flood. The drought started in 2001 and ended in the fall of 2004.

I think this drought started last July. Now to determine when it ends. Drew sees changes in September - not August but not enough to change the soil profile. I've been following him since 2001. You can argue with his daily/weekly stuff; but in 20 years, he is uncanny for long term trends. (and F U Tweety) A lack of snow (exception Mountain areas) and colder than a wh ore's heart will be our La Nina winter.

There is weather sh it happening all over the agriculture world and enough that China is manipulating data again in a huge way.

I feel the angst on the phone everyday. This is going to hurt so much more than 88 and 02; but we had a pretty good run - farmers can withstand one ugly year; i'm mostly worried if it is another 2001 to 2004.

If that happens, every one of you should kick Gerry in the nuts.

[WiltonRanch]

We’ve grown reasonable crops on less moisture than this season but with way less heat. Only other year similar would be 1937 according to family lore. It was the worst of the dirty 30’s. Every other year they grew alright crops with the tiller.

[jazz]

Larrys advice to buy more insurance might have been the call of the decade. But will insurance be as easy to buy next yr. and beyond. Will private insurance companies still be solvent? Will farmers have to rig their rotation toward more coverage like some suggested?