Anyone want to WAG a production estimate after looking at this?

[the big wheel]

Thank you for your kind words. I don't get how some are so far out to lunch while estimating yields. I've been running my model since the end of June and have been scared to print the results because they were so ugl and then along comes BW and nearly nails it. I'm in the 8th year of this model that incorps NDVI data and rain totals by RM or county; failing that, by Census District.

There are a whack of ppl who weren't around in 2002 and 1988 that will get a rude awakening. Rain was born in 2005. She wasn't named Rain because we were in a flood. The drought started in 2001 and ended in the fall of 2004.

I think this drought started last July. Now to determine when it ends. Drew sees changes in September - not August but not enough to change the soil profile. I've been following him since 2001. You can argue with his daily/weekly stuff; but in 20 years, he is uncanny for long term trends. (and F U Tweety) A lack of snow (exception Mountain areas) and colder than a wh ore's heart will be our La Nina winter.

There is weather sh it happening all over the agriculture world and enough that China is manipulating data again in a huge way.

I feel the angst on the phone everyday. This is going to hurt so much more than 88 and 02; but we had a pretty good run - farmers can withstand one ugly year; i'm mostly worried if it is another 2001 to 2004.

If that happens, every one of you should kick Gerry in the nuts.

That’s where our area is maybe different than
Most our drought started year and half roughly.
Throw in hail and as you mentioned it’s big trouble.
Some people won’t understand what I m talking
About until their 3rd year then I m sure a different
Tune would be sung and maybe more urgency.
But one thing is for sure for many your shiit
Yield and rhe problem with the formulas has
One notch in the belt from this year.
Thanks for highlighting the severity this year
Larry!
Even that stupid useless tax deferral they were
trying to exclude Some rms what ignorance and
Complete lack of fairness.

[Guest]

Thanks Larry for showing how wide spread this drought is. You are the only one telling the truth amongst commodity groups. You have a lot of respect from farmers for being on our side. Thank you!!!!

I will second that !

[bigzee]

Thank you for your kind words. I don't get how some are so far out to lunch while estimating yields. I've been running my model since the end of June and have been scared to print the results because they were so ugl and then along comes BW and nearly nails it. I'm in the 8th year of this model that incorps NDVI data and rain totals by RM or county; failing that, by Census District.

There are a whack of ppl who weren't around in 2002 and 1988 that will get a rude awakening. Rain was born in 2005. She wasn't named Rain because we were in a flood. The drought started in 2001 and ended in the fall of 2004.

I think this drought started last July. Now to determine when it ends. Drew sees changes in September - not August but not enough to change the soil profile. I've been following him since 2001. You can argue with his daily/weekly stuff; but in 20 years, he is uncanny for long term trends. (and F U Tweety) A lack of snow (exception Mountain areas) and colder than a wh ore's heart will be our La Nina winter.

There is weather sh it happening all over the agriculture world and enough that China is manipulating data again in a huge way.

I feel the angst on the phone everyday. This is going to hurt so much more than 88 and 02; but we had a pretty good run - farmers can withstand one ugly year; i'm mostly worried if it is another 2001 to 2004.

If that happens, every one of you should kick Gerry in the nuts.

Larry you know who I am, least I think you know.
We had conversations back in the day, and told you once and thanked you for thinking of the farming community. I actually had to give my head a shake and wonder am I hearing right. Someone who actually took interest and used to drive miles to defend us has a lot to say about yourself.

I’ve kept in contact with Drew as long as you have and yes sometimes he hasn’t been correct. Weather predicting is beyond impossible to predict. But this year he said the “D” word in not so many words to me.
Heck my egg said it was going to be a dry year.
How much simpler can weather forecasting be??
😂😂

[Sodbuster]

I’ve been following Drew Lerners reports for a lot of years and he’s a lot more right than anyone else. Thanks Larry for your insight on crop production and marketing, used to read your daily reports to help make marketing decisions along with other sources.

[blackpowder]

Wow. 2002 here was a pinnacle of subsequent dry. Sloughs over multiple years disappeared. ZERO crop that one year.
Every acre in sight plowable. June 03 it poured and except for 09 has maintained or added.
If all the brown on that map is as dry to 10' as we were then. We'll all need 10" in June next year alone.

[helmsdale]

God help us if this is year 1 of 3. Most of western Canada will "re-wild" all on its own.

Father in law used to say the first year gets your phucking attention. The second puts you on your knees. The third, god forbid, (envision the sign of the cross being made) puts you under.

[sumdumguy]

Have faith, in the 80’s dry years never repeated, hoping for early safe harvest and a wet October/ November.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

On a side note .....does anyone think another 400000 acres of irrigation will help with that map?????

Interesting to note that even in the irrigation area of southern Alberta there is nothing but browns on the map. Did the heat do that much damage even with irrigation, or is the healthy vegetation under if it's overwhelmed by the corners and the pastures and the fence lines?

[Rareearth]

Seeding dates impact the maps as well. Not sure if they are included in the algorithms?

Aside from that, the maps are obvious.

[farming101]

Interesting to note that even in the irrigation area of southern Alberta there is nothing but browns on the map. Did the heat do that much damage even with irrigation, or is the healthy vegetation under if it's overwhelmed by the corners and the pastures and the fence lines?

August 1

[sumdumguy]

Sorry, double post🤨

[sumdumguy]

This is Alberta? need a legend pls.