Friday Crop Report on a Thursday!

[jdg364]

To summarize ...its the law of diminishing returns....every program has been designed that way...keep you holding on long enough to finally say phuck it.

I do think its unreasonable that US, dairy, chicken producers have received huge payouts compared to the cow/calf and grain/oilseed producers as it distorts the market and creates bickering between the farming community. I agree that the livestock producers need a handout more so than the grain/oilseed producers as well.

The past 10-15 years has been some of the best for the cropping community (not sure about livestock as I don't own any but I doubt its been that rosy) for most of the current producers. It is hard to miss a crop with high prices or low prices because it sets a farm back and hopefully not too many back-to-back wrecks. Not trying to pick a battle but if things have been that dismal and you've been unable to get ahead then something needs to change and a govt handout may only delay the inevitable. Maybe a farm needs to try something different and diversify into a different livestock (honey bees), or the poor farmland needs to be put back into pasture, or maybe build a distillery and sell booze.

Some of the most profitable farms in my area, and not the mega farms with investor money, have a seed cleaning plant, increase their farm size gradually and don't jump the land market up, try niche crops (hemp, pedigreed seed, quinoa, grasses) and they aren't borrowing money every time something comes into the yard. Not saying this is a recipe to become a millionaire but when I started farming I looked at what the successful farms were doing and asked them upfront. Not saying any of it is easy but I am getting ahead..

[furrowtickler]

I do think its unreasonable that US, dairy, chicken producers have received huge payouts compared to the cow/calf and grain/oilseed producers as it distorts the market and creates bickering between the farming community. I agree that the livestock producers need a handout more so than the grain/oilseed producers as well.

The past 10-15 years has been some of the best for the cropping community (not sure about livestock as I don't own any but I doubt its been that rosy) for most of the current producers. It is hard to miss a crop with high prices or low prices because it sets a farm back and hopefully not too many back-to-back wrecks. Not trying to pick a battle but if things have been that dismal and you've been unable to get ahead then something needs to change and a govt handout may only delay the inevitable. Maybe a farm needs to try something different and diversify into a different livestock (honey bees), or the poor farmland needs to be put back into pasture, or maybe build a distillery and sell booze.

Some of the most profitable farms in my area, and not the mega farms with investor money, have a seed cleaning plant, increase their farm size gradually and don't jump the land market up, try niche crops (hemp, pedigreed seed, quinoa, grasses) and they aren't borrowing money every time something comes into the yard. Not saying this is a recipe to become a millionaire but when I started farming I looked at what the successful farms were doing and asked them upfront. Not saying any of it is easy but I am getting ahead..

Canada doing the exact same thing with dairy and poultry producers ... not just the US .
Most guys are diversified like your pointed out for that exact reason . But bad luck with Mother Nature is bad luck .... some can not comprehend that if not in that position. Your a newer poster on here , which is great. But your assumptions are wrong .
You would be surprised how many farms in this area are already doing everything you said .
It comes down to being extremely lucky for some areas to have had 10-15 good years , and some areas not .....
I agree with the points you made , but most of us have been down that road once or twice already and have already made significant changes .
Go west of here , complete different world and they think we are crazy to try black beans , soybeans , faba beans and other crops just to try something different. But lack of rain , hail , frost and snow could care less . Some have had all 4 in the past 4 years .
That’s why the current crop insurance and Agro stability fail big time .
For those with steady good crops the past 10-15 years , they will be fine . But it’s not the case everywhere. Problem is , that’s the assumption and attitude across the entire Ag industry . And that is wrong , dead wrong for more than they may think .

[jdg364]

Canada doing the exact same thing with dairy and poultry producers ... not just the US .
Most guys are diversified like your pointed out for that exact reason . But bad luck with Mother Nature is bad luck .... some can not comprehend that if not in that position. Your a newer poster on here , which is great. But your assumptions are wrong .
You would be surprised how many farms in this area are already doing everything you said .
It comes down to being extremely lucky for some areas to have had 10-15 good years , and some areas not .....
I agree with the points you made , but most of us have been down that road once or twice already and have already made significant changes .
Go west of here , complete different world and they think we are crazy to try black beans , soybeans , faba beans and other crops just to try something different. But lack of rain , hail , frost and snow could care less . Some have had all 4 in the past 4 years .
That’s why the current crop insurance and Agro stability fail big time .
For those with steady good crops the past 10-15 years , they will be fine . But it’s not the case everywhere. Problem is , that’s the assumption and attitude across the entire Ag industry . And that is wrong , dead wrong for more than they may think .

Yes mother nature has the final say.

[the big wheel]

The diversity thing has been tried by many
Most of the time farms are too remote for anything
To work due to transporting costs. Bigger farms
Less communities close by less population in rural
It all adds to the difficulty of diversifying.
When mp mla doctor or lawyer or teacher or any other
Profession needs to be in at least one or 2 other
Professions just to still be one of those then I ll say
Yup right on.

Let’s talk about making things right to do what
Your farm is supposed to do. Anything else is just an excuse
To mask the problem of lack of support compared
To nearly every other country in the world producing
Farm goods for export.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Agristability requires some good years to trigger! Many haven’t had any in the last 5 years, so it doesn’t work.

To play devil's advocate, Did some producers have 5 not good years?
Or did they have 5 mediocre years preceeded by a decade of unusually benign weather, making us all think that those above average yields were the new normal, as opposed to the anomally?.
Then spending accordingly.
In reality, maybe the 5 disaster years are closer to reality farming in the semi arid prairies,with a short unpredictable growing season, and huge weather swings.
Here, on the cold wet short season, hail prone western fringe, when I decided to transition to mostly grain from mostly cattle, I budgeted 1 year in 3 to be a disaster.
And historically, that wouldn't be too far off.
I really don't think straight grain farming is viable in the long term in this little corner of the world where I live.
And I spend accordingly.

When I hear about the yield expectations and the costs that are built into that in some of the even riskier areas(by which I mean dry), I have to wonder if they have ever looked into the historical weather records for their areas.

[helmsdale]

When I hear about the yield expectations and the costs that are built into that in some of the even riskier areas(by which I mean dry), I have to wonder if they have ever looked into the historical weather records for their areas.

Come on man, you mean $300/ac gross on stubble in the Special Areas isn't the "new normal", which thereby turns $500/ac land into $1500/ac land, and per acre equipment financing from $10-15 into $85-100 the accepted standard isn't sustainable?

Words I wonder if a few people are choking on these days around here:
"We'll never harvest a sub-20 bushel crop of durum ever again the way we farm now!"
"You gotta get into Canola, thats where the big boy money is!"
"If you've got two feet and a heartbeat, they'll lend you the money, what are you worried about?"

[FarmJunkie]

Chickens always come home to roost. Until the wolf (banker) getsem.

[Dr Tone]

To play devil's advocate, Did some producers have 5 not good years?
Or did they have 5 mediocre years preceeded by a decade of unusually benign weather, making us all think that those above average yields were the new normal, as opposed to the anomally?.
Then spending accordingly.
In reality, maybe the 5 disaster years are closer to reality farming in the semi arid prairies,with a short unpredictable growing season, and huge weather swings.
Here, on the cold wet short season, hail prone western fringe, when I decided to transition to mostly grain from mostly cattle, I budgeted 1 year in 3 to be a disaster.
And historically, that wouldn't be too far off.
I really don't think straight grain farming is viable in the long term in this little corner of the world where I live.
And I spend accordingly.

When I hear about the yield expectations and the costs that are built into that in some of the even riskier areas(by which I mean dry), I have to wonder if they have ever looked into the historical weather records for their areas.

I think I’ve only had 1 year in the last 10 where I didn’t collect crop insurance on something or multiple crops. She be wet, no hand outs just have to work a winter job.

It’s normal for me, this year might be a better return than we normally get and we’ve only had 3” of rain all year.

[Guest]

I think I’ve only had 1 year in the last 10 where I didn’t collect crop insurance on something or multiple crops. She be wet, no hand outs just have to work a winter job.

It’s normal for me, this year might be a better return than we normally get and we’ve only had 3” of rain all year.

God damn rights
You guys north of us deserve a break
It’s about time !
Can’t believe the shit you’ve endured
The rest of us think we were wet, but don’t have a clue

[shtferbrains]

I think I’ve only had 1 year in the last 10 where I didn’t collect crop insurance on something or multiple crops. She be wet, no hand outs just have to work a winter job.

It’s normal for me, this year might be a better return than we normally get and we’ve only had 3” of rain all year.

You must be pn the east side of the lake.

[Sheepwheat]

I think I’ve only had 1 year in the last 10 where I didn’t collect crop insurance on something or multiple crops. She be wet, no hand outs just have to work a winter job.

It’s normal for me, this year might be a better return than we normally get and we’ve only had 3” of rain all year.

Yeah multiple year crop insurance reliance hurts after a while. Premiums skyrocket and coverage drops. We have had about 3.5 inches now, and with the cooler, high humidity, and subsoil we had things look good, especially considering prices.

It’s sucks that to win, someone often has to lose. Usually are not 95% losing for the sake of 5% though.

[makar]

Well it’s been another dry week here.

The yellowjackets and grasshoppers are certainly enjoying it. We’re lucky the hoppers are only coming on thick now when there’s not much left for them to eat anyway. Next year will be a total wreck if the dry continues.

The yearlings are pretty much out of grass and should’ve been sold tomorrow but refused to come out of the bush. Once we got a bunch of them on the road they smashed a fence and ran away. Now they’re spread across six different quarters with plenty of bush. I really wasn’t looking forward to selling early but wanted to get them gone to put the pain behind me. Now we’re further behind than before with more work to drag them home somehow. Working and moving cattle this year has been very bizarre and all we can chalk it up to is the heat. Definitely not used to dealing with cows in +25 let alone +30 like most days it seems this year.

Spending more time dealing with water for the cows this year than the previous 5 years combined. The last few years they could stick their noses anywhere and get a drink.

The kids (our best crop) love coming to check cows with me as long as we stop and let them run in the corn. Pretty impressed with the corn and it’s starting to tassel and put on cobs at 3-7 feet tall. Hopefully it can stretch out more but has a lot of drought stress showing.

The barley and canola aren’t much to look at so we won’t discuss those. Off to a field day and AGM with our local forage association this afternoon. It’ll be nice to get away and visit with some likeminded folks. It’s been more stressful and time consuming not making hay (grazing instead) compared to other years …………… not to mention much less profitable. Hopefully everyone can scrounge enough “economical” cow chow to make it through.

Good luck y’all 🍀

Rather the bee nest in the tracks than the muskrat that committed Hari Kari in the 6 stump pan at 30 degrees.