HRSW Looking Toppy

[wheatking16]

Taking a look at the MGEX Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures Composite Index monthly chart.

The price has reached a level of interest to me at the confluence of the .236 Fibonacci Retracement and the previous supply from 2010 thru 2012.

I am not a big volume guy, however, it is worth noting the declining volume on the parabolic rise beginning in the summer of 2020.



When I look at the weekly chart, I notice that three weeks ago, we had a TD 9 count which prepares me for 1-4 candle pullback, in this case, 1-4 weeks.

I prefer to have the candle top on a TD 9 with a long wick at the top to provide more confidence.





Can the market for higher?

Absolutely.

However, having areas of interest can help with marketing decisions or in this year's case, buying out contracts.

The Klarenbach Report
https://klarenbach.substack.com

[bucket]

Russian production of spring wheat is down with dry weather as well.

Maybe they have the same kind of guys like Townsend there , that reduce the crop by a million tonnes at a crack knowing its a wreck.

[LWeber]

Russian production of spring wheat is down with dry weather as well.

Maybe they have the same kind of guys like Townsend there , that reduce the crop by a million tonnes at a crack knowing its a wreck.

Guarantee there is wrecks in :

Canada
United States
Russia
Kazak

[bucket]

Too bad those 4 countries couldn't emulate a cartel like OPEC enjoys...hahaha.

[jazz]

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Guarantee there is wrecks in :

Canada
United States
Russia
Kazak

In the central US midwest Larry? Corn and soybean country? I havent heard anything like that out of there.

Pls elaborate because if that area gets a late season surprise this market is going to blow a gasket.

[LWeber]

In the central US midwest Larry? Corn and soybean country? I havent heard anything like that out of there.

Pls elaborate because if that area gets a late season surprise this market is going to blow a gasket.

Just spring wheat - world bread wheat production is shrinking every day.

There was a movement to segregate bread wheat and feed wheat within S&D's in the 90's that was shot down at the International Wheat Council. The opposition came from Canada.

Transparency eh...

[bucket]

Just spring wheat - world bread wheat production is shrinking every day.

There was a movement to segregate bread wheat and feed wheat within S&D's in the 90's that was shot down at the International Wheat Council. The opposition came from Canada.

Transparency eh...

Is that because feed wheat here can be substituted for bread wheat when necessary with our higher quality?

Did the families shitcan the idea?

[agstar77]

I think bottomy might be more appropriate.

[shtferbrains]

Crop here looks relatively good all things considered.
Wheat, Barley, Oats look like back in the 70's when we put 35 to 50# N on stubble and hoped for 35 bus wheat.
Canola looks like 60#N in those days only a lot cleaner.

[LWeber]

Crop here looks relatively good all things considered.
Wheat, Barley, Oats look like back in the 70's when we put 35 to 50# N on stubble and hoped for 35 bus wheat.
Canola looks like 60#N in those days only a lot cleaner.

Where are you located?
Not many similar to normal in the 1km data from Monday...

[shtferbrains]

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Where are you located?
Not many similar to normal in the 1km data from Monday...

Normal for 1975.
Relativly good for the 2.5 in rain we had.

[Wheatking]

Did we just plain run out of wheat the last time hrsw made the $24 run?
Wouldn’t that be a possibility this year?

I’ve driven a lot of miles this summer and crops look dismal 75% of the time.
Even good crops are average at best. Kindersley area looks like it’ll have trouble filling all those terminals but a few times.

Wasn't the cwb caught short. Thought they lost something like 25 million on that trade. I thought that was kind of the straw that broke the camels back and led to the ultimate downfall of the cwb. Maybe I'm remembering it wrong and Larry can fill us in on the details.

[bucket]

Wasn't the cwb caught short. Thought they lost something like 25 million on that trade. I thought that was kind of the straw that broke the camels back and led to the ultimate downfall of the cwb. Maybe I'm remembering it wrong and Larry can fill us in on the details.

It was the cwb that got caught short... even American farmers talk about it.

Now it's the farmers themselves in Canada that will be short.

Interestingly enough while they were mad at the CWB for that ...they were not smart enough to tell Gerry to put in contracts between graincos and farmers a mechanism that would protect both sides in the event of what's happening today and what happened to the CWB.

But maybe agristability will pickup the costs of contract buyouts as an eligible expense.

[BreadWinner]

The CWB lost a pile of our money that year they got caught on the wrong side of the trade. That year American farmers got over $20 per bushel and we got crumbs. The only thing that lead to its demise was the Conservative party. This might be the year we see over $20.

[Tucker]

The CWB wasn't selling any $24 wheat. They were BUYING it for $24 from US speculators who had them by the short and curlies. The idiots at the board blew out wheat to Algeria and the like for peanuts before it was even planted and farmers said "What do you mean you sold it all? We didn't grow any." Farmers paid for their idotic gambling loss in the pools for two years. I grew ABC* for those two years. In fact that might have been when I started into my dairy alfalfa years. Only got back into cereals after the board was gone. Wheat board act said they can only sell what has already been offered by farmers. I don't know why anyone didn't go to jail over that. They certainly sold what wasn't offered yet. "Offered" PUKE. Try stolen.

* Anything But Cereals