Thoughts on land prices ?

[quadtrac]

No one has crystal ball but I am sure lots of people are curious on opinion of land prices going forward.
Hasn’t been brought up for awhile.
Yes big area of drought but also high grain prices.
So going forward it’ll be interesting to see if same momentum holds on land price gains and demand.

[flea beetle]

No one has crystal ball but I am sure lots of people are curious on opinion of land prices going forward.
Hasn’t been brought up for awhile.
Yes big area of drought but also high grain prices.
So going forward it’ll be interesting to see if same momentum holds on land price gains and demand.

My feeling is that they will hold for the next 5-10 years, but will decline as the majority of land holders start to sell. Most land holders are in the 50-80 year old range right now.

That being said, I just made a major land purchase last winter. Not sure it was the right move, but it is done!

[makar]

Last clh auction here went quite well.

[quadtrac]

Hard to find any for sale so hard to gauge in my area what it’s doing.

[jazz]

In one single yr all the surpluses of most major crops were drawn down to decade lows and maybe goIn lower in the next few months.

How long will it take farmers to put every crop back into a comfortable surplus? I would say that could take a while. Could be a nice run on prices.

The only wild card is inflation and if we have to fight that again. Commodities could unwind.

[burnt]

It seems that land prices here are increasingly diverging from productivity.

Just now read an email from a friend in Grey County, just below Georgian Bay, of a run down 95 acre piece of tough dirt that won't drain, 4" top soil laying on shallow, hard clay subsoil over a rock bottom. Poor hay ground even, puts up 1 cut of hay per year. A very poor cow-calf or grazing farm at best.

Under tight Greenbelt control, no development potential and an old farmhouse with a tumble down barn.

A turkey grower from elsewhere needed to find a place to dump some quota-sale money.

It was listed on a Monday and by end of the week sold for 1.5 million.

Absolutely no way it could return a tiny fragment of what it cost.

That's not even the worst - what that does is increase the assessment value across the entire county and forces taxes up to the point where some farms cannot generate enough revenue to afford the taxes.

It is the globalist's dream - make land values too high for individuals to afford private ownership.

Exchanges of 20 -30 M/ acre now common here. Good, productive soil, but the biggest driver is supply management.

[GDR]

Contrary to my hope and rational thought, up is the only direction it's going. By the time the first snow falls any recollection of drought will be gone from farmers minds and the math of current pricing and exceptional yields will take over. Farmers always sound negative but are eternal optimists.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Nothing for sale here at all for the past year now. At least nothing that resembles arable farmland.
All the acreages, and houses and quarter sections with houses on them that have been for sale for years with zero demand or suddenly selling instantly now. The mass Exodus from the cities is not just a myth.
We had a period in recent years where farmland was selling at closer to its production potential then it ever had in my time. I suspect that era Is now over again.

[Taiga]

If interest rates ever rise then that will put the brakes on.
Personally have no desire to farm more but would probably participate in trying to buy something for sale if it was within 1mile from existing land and it didn’t have a house on it (don’t want to pay for a house I don’t need).

[jazz]

The mass Exodus from the cities is not just a myth.
We had a period in recent years where farmland was selling at closer to its production potential then it ever had in my time. I suspect that era Is now over again.

Throw in covid version 10, lockdowns, triple masks and daily vaccine mandates from the woke left and you could see the major cities empty pretty fast.

Getting carded just to stick you head out of your door is going to get pretty old fast for most. Though some will love it.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

if it didn’t have a house on it (don’t want to pay for a house I don’t need).

That is the biggest problem around here, every quarter has a house on it and a subdivision as well only allowed one subdivision out so you're stuck with the house at twice the cost of the quarter, I've had enough fun in the rental racket, and the economics don't work for the productive land to pay for the house. Leaves a very small number of properties available, at any price.

[iceman]

“The land market only goes up”
Dave Portney