Fertilizer for spring 2022

[jdg364]

Not sure if this has been discussed lately, but I spoke with my local Nutrien rep and told me that phos for spring was around $1000/mt (stored till spring). I think we paid around 630/mt in nov20.. are guys booking Fert at these values or does a guy play the waiting game and see who blinks first?

[foragefarmer]

Sounds a lot like (I think it was 2008) the same thing happened late Aug and Sept fert prices rocketed up but fell sharply in the spring.

I haven't phoned my fert guy as of yet as I always buy in the fall except the above mention year I waited till spring( if I have the year right), but I would never buy at that price for the upcoming spring.

Maybe late Nov or Dec fert prices will come down which will offer a buying opprotunity.

[jazz]

Depends on the mood of farmers after this yr. Are guys gung ho to go for it again, or are some horns going to be pulled in. All major crops are hovering in the $20+ range and likely to carry into 2022.

Thats probably too much money to not roll the dice again.

[Guest]

Sounds a lot like (I think it was 2008) the same thing happened late Aug and Sept fert prices rocketed up but fell sharply in the spring.

I haven't phoned my fert guy as of yet as I always buy in the fall except the above mention year I waited till spring( if I have the year right), but I would never buy at that price for the upcoming spring.

Maybe late Nov or Dec fert prices will come down which will offer a buying opprotunity.

yes it was 08, after the financial crash
dropped like a rock
actually the only time for us , that we got burnt by pre buying
but i can't make any sense outta pre buying at top dollar

[furrowtickler]

They are going to charge max what they can cause 10% of the farms will do really well , they could care less for the other 90% ..... for now
A agree case and forage ... will see come late winter

[zeefarmer]

Are there any Canadian companies that are importing non-North American phos?

[bobofthenorth]

Are there any Canadian companies that are importing non-North American phos?

There are but most farmers simply don't care (or know) where their fertilizer originates. The US has sanctioned Belarussian and Moroccan phosphate which means that those two countries need to find other destinations for their production. In the short term it makes imports from the US more expensive. Every pound of phosphate sold in Canada is imported from somewhere. For a country whose ag sector has long depended on exporting bulk commodities we are remarkably poorly equipped to import bulk fertilizer.

[jdg364]

We are waiting this one out for now and see if values will back off, if I’m paying 4 digit Fert prices it can wait till 2022.

I know the exchange (dropped big in the last wk) will affect new Fert shipments and will be used as a sales push. If we had some moisture in the ground I would probably book some of my Fert but hedge it with some 2022 grain sales.. but just too scared

[shtferbrains]

I see a DAP chart @ $630 USD ton basis Tampa i believe.

DYOD

[Sodbuster]

I see a DAP chart @ $630 USD ton basis Tampa i believe.

DYOD

That pretty much says $1000 phos when you factor in transportation, dollar a t ton to tonne. The dollar and ton to tonnes works out to $905 without adding transportation from Tampa.

[Old Cowzilla]

Winfall in grain prices being used to buy out contracts by many key players I have talked too in our area. Wonder if ( FERT-GRAIN COS ) are just feeling the market to see if there will be anything left. My son and I know one thing we will be spending more on soil testing this fall. If you have less than 1/2 a crop does that mean you used about half the fert ?

[shtferbrains]

Be sure you get 24 inch samples for nitrogen.
Especialy after significant rain.
Don't let anybody tell you that you can't consider deeper nitrogen but you do need enough to support the plant while it is rooting.
If you have been bone dry you can also expect a flush of nutrients from all the microflora that died off in those conditions.

[JankoFarms]

Are there any Canadian companies that are importing non-North American phos?

Definitely some. Not sure how to add the link.
https://www.producer.com/news/phosphate-finds-new-way-to-reach-the-prairies/

[jazz]

Whats the point of soil testing? If you found you were in an excess nutrient situation would you really back off next yr? That just creates another problem down the road.

[jamesb]

Whats the point of soil testing? If you found you were in an excess nutrient situation would you really back off next yr? That just creates another problem down the road.

For close to 10 years or so we have soil tested every year and zone vari rate the nitrogen mostly, phos sometimes. I am amazed as to the differences between fields year to year. A little better crop in fields that had better rain really shows in the soil test. Its neat to follow the changes in available nutrients from year to year. On our farm we are using the same yield goals for each crop but will vary the fertilizer a lot from field to field. We don't drop rates below a certain point but between yield maps, satellite imagery and soil testing it is pretty easy to get a feel for where things are going from year to year. Across the farm in a normal year we are not spending less on fertilizer but are putting less in some places and more in others. I think we could write our prescriptions ourselves pretty easy but we would have to invest in a pretty good setup for zone sampling. At normally 70 probes per field these days, the old hand probe we use to pull from maybe 15 spots wouldn't work. Bottom line for me is that I have a lot of confidence that I know what is in the soil.