Fast Moving Incoming Recession . . . .

[Old Cowzilla]

U.S. mortgage refinancing demand is reported down 60 percent from a year ago due to rising rates. What’s happening to those mortgages and payments? More homes for sale, foreclosures?

Folks where refinancing to buy Toys maybe a bunch of them are having second thoughts what with fuel and war and stuff like that. Local toy guys say they have stuff coming this month that's not spoken for, a change from a few months ago when you had to put your name ( on the list ) !!!!

[shtferbrains]

Not really clear on the USA home mortgages.
They can set rates for full term up to 30 yrs?
Don't renegotiate every 3 to 5 yrs?
Tax deductable interest?
Do you have to file income tax there is you buy or sell? Every year you own?

Was some great deals in some areas back in last recession around 2008.

Maybe SF3 or anybody owned a vacation home might comment?

[errolanderson]

NASDAQ plunges 4 percent today, officially bear market country. Question now: How deep and long lasting will this recession last?

[errolanderson]

U.S. recession sirens sounding . . . . U.S. 1st quarter GDP released this morning . . . . -1.4%

What's the real truth on Canada's economic growth?

[errolanderson]

Next incoming shock . . . layoffs.

Companies were forced to pay massive wage hikes for low income earners. As demand destruction swells, companies will be forced to cut staff. Suddenly, the shortage of workers can actually become a surplus.

The pandemic labour market is a bubble, just like any other commodity or equity market. Realize some on this forum may not agree and especially mainstream media, that’s bent on ongoing rising inflation and shortages.

[bobofthenorth]

You guys that are so convinced this is an existential crash should be short the market. If its really so black and white, put your money on the line. Just know that you've been warned - its nowhere as simple as it looks from the outside.

[helmsdale]

Something to contemplate...

Seeing reports of "bullwhip" stockpiles. Supply chain shortages indicated to retailers that they should put in larger than necessary orders to replenish stocks but also to ensure that they had stock going forward. Then the energy crisis drives gas/diesel/electricity/etc to the moon and consumers cut back on other discretionary spending so they can eat and get to work. Those stockpiles don't sit around free of charge... Warehouse space isn't cheap... Do we see sale prices at or below cost to clear the inventory backup?

[TOM4CWB]

Something to contemplate...

Seeing reports of "bullwhip" stockpiles. Supply chain shortages indicated to retailers that they should put in larger than necessary orders to replenish stocks but also to ensure that they had stock going forward. Then the energy crisis drives gas/diesel/electricity/etc to the moon and consumers cut back on other discretionary spending so they can eat and get to work. Those stockpiles don't sit around free of charge... Warehouse space isn't cheap... Do we see sale prices at or below cost to clear the inventory backup?

Consumer electronics and clothing etc are easy auto purchases.:: will be first to see cutbacks… then as restaurants and entertainment looses pandemic social deficits wear off… then watch the recession risk rise exponentially…

Cheers

[shtferbrains]

Something to contemplate...

Seeing reports of "bullwhip" stockpiles. Supply chain shortages indicated to retailers that they should put in larger than necessary orders to replenish stocks but also to ensure that they had stock going forward. Then the energy crisis drives gas/diesel/electricity/etc to the moon and consumers cut back on other discretionary spending so they can eat and get to work. Those stockpiles don't sit around free of charge... Warehouse space isn't cheap... Do we see sale prices at or below cost to clear the inventory backup?

Commonly referred to as distressed inventory.
Can't keep it all.
Everything from green bananas to Motor Homes or Executive Jets.

Or maybe a bin full of Phosphate bought at $200 te more than the competitor down the road.

Might see some shit hit the fan?

[errolanderson]

Some mid-size China banks now rumoured insolvent and running out of cash. Apparently, customers can’t withdraw. This appears to be a small fire that might get a whole lot bigger impacting commodity markets. China consumes basically half of global commodities.

Crude oil may be impacted, impacting other commodities.