Fast Moving Incoming Recession . . . .

[errolanderson]

Purchasers Managers Index (PMI) has been a pretty decent predictor of US Real GDP. This is a bell-weather indicator of economic health. And it now suggests the US economy really is cooling off in the 3rd quarter - way, way off.

Big economic / financial problems incoming quickly (IMO). But meanwhile in the unrealistic equity world, record breaking stock indexes continue to be cocooned by central bankers. More record profits with banks.

[jazz]

errol with the fed so entrenched in the economy these indicators have been thrown off IMO.

There is $6T in Biden stimulus coming.

[bucket]

Or maybe the just in time ordering isn't working anymore and the people that are paid to think in advance have to actually do their job? And don't have the skill set.?

[biglentil]

Nasty stagflation with major supply chain disruptions on the horizon. Those that are pro jab passport and pro mandatory jab are not going to like the tyrannical world they advocated for. 20%+ of the Truckers, medical staff, factory workers.... are about to walk away. Better have a bucket and mop ready shit is about to hit the fan.

[errolanderson]

Equities in-wait right now on Jackson Hole Wyoming virtual meeting of global central bankers. More easy money seen. (Daddy is at the family dinner table with his cheque book open.)

But, central bank influence is now fading sharply. The money printing gig is up. And the Fed wants to slow the printing presses in 2022. Any hint that the cocoon is starting to be pulled-apart, these markets are in real trouble (IMO).

But money printing or no money printing, the PMI index doesn't lie . . . .

[biglentil]

Equities in-wait right now on Jackson Hole Wyoming virtual meeting of global central bankers. More easy money seen. (Daddy is at the family dinner table with his cheque book open.)

But, central bank influence is now fading sharply. The money printing gig is up. And the Fed wants to slow the printing presses in 2022. Any hint that the cocoon is starting to be pulled-apart, these markets are in real trouble (IMO).

But money printing or no money printing, the PMI index doesn't lie . . . .

So are you predicting inflation is dead again? Even though the money supply has expanded more this year than the previous two centuries, combined with unprecedented supply chain disruptions.

[errolanderson]

So are you predicting inflation is dead again? Even though the money supply has expanded more this year than the previous two centuries, combined with unprecedented supply chain disruptions.

Yup . . . .

[4GFarms]

What does this do to the commodity markets? People still have to eat and the supply is low after the troubles this growing season.

[errolanderson]

What does this do to the commodity markets? People still have to eat and the supply is low after the troubles this growing season.

Global commodity price trend is now down (particularly industrials) from iron ore, copper, precious metals This is incoming 'deflation in-progress' folks. And this is occurring despite mass money printing, go-figure.

So how effective is central bank policy since 2008? And at what cost?

[GDR]

Or maybe the just in time ordering isn't working anymore and the people that are paid to think in advance have to actually do their job? And don't have the skill set.?

Lack of supply is affecting everything. You cant buy something that's not for sale and when one component is unavailable it makes all the other parts of the same thing not for sale either. It's not just vehicles, its the whole supply chain broken, I'm really surprised in this modern time that it can't be ramped up faster.

[jazz]

Global commodity price trend is now down (particularly industrials) from iron ore, copper, precious metals This is incoming 'deflation in-progress' folks. And this is occurring despite mass money printing, go-figure.

So how effective is central bank policy since 2008? And at what cost?

There is speculative money hiding in commodities expecting inflation. Thats what could turn the tide quickly more than supply demand imbalances.

The US has a some critical numbers to report on GDP and such but after that, all bets are off. The economy will be as far back as it can be which still wont be where it was pre covid. And how much more debt can be printed up. Place like Canada is at the end of the rope, but US, I dont know. They have a debt ceiling fight coming up in a month or so.

[errolanderson]

Lack of supply is affecting everything. You cant buy something that's not for sale and when one component is unavailable it makes all the other parts of the same thing not for sale either. It's not just vehicles, its the whole supply chain broken, I'm really surprised in this modern time that it can't be ramped up faster.

Ocean container shipping rates are up 10X, but unsustainable (IMO). Once the supply chain starts to normalize, these rates will plunge back to reality. To me, this is not inflation, this is a squeeze that will come 'n go ie; commodities . . . .

[furrowtickler]

Lack of supply is affecting everything. You cant buy something that's not for sale and when one component is unavailable it makes all the other parts of the same thing not for sale either. It's not just vehicles, its the whole supply chain broken, I'm really surprised in this modern time that it can't be ramped up faster.

North America screwed its self by relying too much on China. Now we are all paying for the big cooperations profit margins over the past 10-20 years .

Shipping jobs overseas , helping developing countries , ie India , China , Malaysia .... big part of Obama’s dream .
Now what ...... we destroyed industry in North America. It will take years to get that back .
Rather than look after our own citizens who are jobless , homeless and First Nations get decent jobs they gave all that away and maxed out social assistance meanwhile destroying wealth creating industry to pay for it all .
It’s left a mess our kids and grandkids will pay for .
Sad reality hitting home now

[blackpowder]

I don't know what to think.
Consumer inflation that I see has me concerned. As farmers we forget we are in the top 5-10%. Justin's new middle class, which now includes everyone else but the destitute.
Imagining my semi retirement, I see most people living quite modestly in theirs. Remember those who retired in the mid 70s taking on employment in the 80s?, I do.

On another note, local terminal offering 9- near 10$ wheat for fall 22.
I'm not certain of anyone's crystal ball..

[jazz]

On another note, local terminal offering 9- near 10$ wheat for fall 22.
I'm not certain of anyone's crystal ball..

BP. I was thinking along the same lines as you. Anyone with a crop in the bin right now, some hedging skills and the balls to forward contract to 2022 could set themselves up for a lifetime.