Fast Moving Incoming Recession . . . .

[shtferbrains]

Global commodity price trend is now down (particularly industrials) from iron ore, copper, precious metals This is incoming 'deflation in-progress' folks. And this is occurring despite mass money printing, go-figure.

So how effective is central bank policy since 2008? And at what cost?

Back in the spring Chicoms announced they were going to do everything they could do as a central planer to control or moderate commodity prices.
They certainly built stocks at lower prices last winter.
They seem to be experts at manipulating markets although maybe not on such a wide range of products.
How would you know how much influence they are having?

[Austrian Economics]

Keep an eye on debt defaults, not rising prices. Once those debt dominoes fall, the pandemic will seem like a sideshow.

[canolacrazy]

Back in the spring Chicoms announced they were going to do everything they could do as a central planer to control or moderate commodity prices.
They certainly built stocks at lower prices last winter.
They seem to be experts at manipulating markets although maybe not on such a wide range of products.
How would you know how much influence they are having?

yes, the chicoms have stocked up on all commodities in the last couple of years. with the extreme

weakness coming from the white house recently, there is a real concern that taiwan is china's next target.

if so, that is the black swan event to start things unravelling.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

It shouldn't come as a surprise that the PMI is dropping.
Demand was pulled forward drastically more than it should have been due to shortages perceived and real, and price increases on almost everything. Prudent purchasers had forsaken the usual just in time delivery instead stocking up on any and everything before the price went any higher or it wasn't available. Driving up the PMI beyond where it should have been.

Now we have the double whammy of having the excess stockpiled inventory to use up, and falling prices (at least for most raw commodities) prompting purchasers to delay new purchases as long as possible, and living hand to mouth knowing that it will be cheaper tomorrow than it was today.

Where it all shakes out when normalcy returns, if it ever does, I'm not so sure.

[Old Cowzilla]

A lot of that stock piled inventory is crap people don't need anyway and have forgot about buying it by now. Containers full of throwaway christmas lights block containers full of ag parts in the system. Does everybody need a TV in every room while they watch programs on their phone

[burnt]

A lot of that stock piled inventory is crap people don't need anyway and have forgot about buying it by now. Containers full of throwaway christmas lights block containers full of ag parts in the system. Does everybody need a TV in every room while they watch programs on their phone

Some is unneeded, but much is industry stock in trade.

We do metal fabricating here and have laid in extra materials to offset the supply chain shocks that have been felt everywhere. We basically increased inventory by 50%, and found some significant cost benefits in doubling up on orders.

Some of that has been absorbed by strong sales, but certainly not all of it.

So we are going to have a slowdown in purchasing over the next......term, and if our sales drop off to more normal levels, that will take a while to use up this stock.

If our sales drop to below normal - you know where that goes.

Extrapolate that scenario across all sectors of industry and retail and it's really bad news.

My one steel supplier said back in the late spring that they were doubling up on steel inventory for quite a while now. They deal in thousands of tonnes of material in many different forms.

I wouldn't want to be in their shoes if prices start to drop very much at all. It can turn into double trouble.

[parsley]

Some is unneeded, but much is industry stock in trade.

We do metal fabricating here and have laid in extra materials to offset the supply chain shocks that have been felt everywhere. We basically increased inventory by 50%, and found some significant cost benefits in doubling up on orders.

Some of that has been absorbed by strong sales, but certainly not all of it.

So we are going to have a slowdown in purchasing over the next......term, and if our sales drop off to more normal levels, that will take a while to use up this stock.

If our sales drop to below normal - you know where that goes.

Extrapolate that scenario across all sectors of industry and retail and it's really bad news.

My one steel supplier said back in the late spring that they were doubling up on steel inventory for quite a while now. They deal in thousands of tonnes of material in many different forms.

I wouldn't want to be in their shoes if prices start to drop very much at all. It can turn into double trouble.

Wishing you good demand, good markets, and good nerves. pars.

[Old Cowzilla]

Still waiting for some CAT parts guys said they are coming from Belgium . Might have been quicker to fly over and stuff them in my suitcase going on 20 days. By the way remember the big DECKING shortage that was going on a few months ago well I drive past a yard where they make that stuff ( used to work there ) and the yard is packed full of finnished material.

[burnt]

Wishing you good demand, good markets, and good nerves. pars.

Thank you for your kind wishes.

You likely know from your own experience what I'm about to say - at this stage of life, I no longer worry about what "might" happen as far as my business prospects are concerned.

Not that I am independently wealthy (I'm not) but that after nearly 50 years in business, we have survived and thrived through so many ups and downs that the next one no longer seems like an imminent threat.

Of course, I'm also aware that the next one could be like no other before. But as far as that goes, you could say that I've about spent my worry quotient. :-)

Coincidentally, we are working on some transition plans and hopefully it will soon be someone else that will be making the decisions.

[shtferbrains]

So are you predicting inflation is dead again? Even though the money supply has expanded more this year than the previous two centuries, combined with unprecedented supply chain disruptions.

When we had the double digit interest rates a large part of the inflation was due to rising wages.

I have to think wages are going up with the North America wide Labour shortage?

If you don't have workers you can't run your buisness. All kinds of poaching and workers changing jobs. 3 jobs for everyone.
Do wages go down?
Guess they did in the oilfield.

[errolanderson]

Canada’s 2nd quarter GDP was a total bust . . . contracting 1.1 percent annualized despite massive government spending.

This is just the beginning folks. Watch for the 3rd and 4th quarter results. The loonie may be a sitting duck.

Debt rearing-its-head. Real estate fallout just in early stages (IMO) . . . .

[Rareearth]

Continued low interest rates

And the offset to that is lower commodity prices

[jazz]

This is just the beginning folks. Watch for the 3rd and 4th quarter results. The loonie may be a sitting duck.

.

A recession is in the cards for Canada for sure. The rest of the yr will be same as this quarter. Thats what happens when you spend your treasure buying votes instead of increasing productivity. We have all the inflation and no growth and no powder to throw at the next problem.

The loon will be 65c and it will be preceded by a credit downgrade and then interest rate increases. I dont like to think about monetary policy.

[jazz]

How soon does the dollar drop? Might be good for grain prices, no?

IMO, a down grade in the spring combined with BoC tightening.

The bigger question is what brings us out now? There is no more treasury money to throw at the economy, the BoC balance sheet must be bursting at the seams, consumer tapped right the f out or struggling to pay bills.

And ZERO policies to expanding our economy to pay for any of it - NONE, just more debt thrown around.

[Rareearth]

And why would the BOC raise interest rates?