Fast Moving Incoming Recession . . . .

[jamesb]

Lots of interesting thoughts here. I admit that with the way inflation has been rampant for the last 6 months a change the other way would be interesting. I guess I don't see it. The drought gave shortages in lots of commodities, fert was on a upward trajectory since the spring, I believe the "green" govt policy created the energy shortage we see now. It going to be a long time IMO before oil supply builds to lower prices. The chip shortage is a weird one, no end it sight? I remember in the old wheat board days when some had lots of wheat couldn't sell it for cash and dealers were taking wheat on farm machinery. Having cash when few others do can make you a king. I believe that having inputs and fuel on hand is a pretty good strategy these days. As a farmer I fell we can be the king of the castle as so many view food security with great importance as they fear the anger of the hungry masses. My greatest fear these days is the socialistic mind set of some governments towards taxation. Land tax and estate tax are seen as a big windfall for many to pay the interest on the staggering debt pilling up. For me this could be the best of times or the worst of times. I will say to I bought a big assed generator to keep the lights on if the SHTF too.

[jazz]

Bond market thinks somethings up. Someone said there is likely 4 rate hikes in 2022.

[parsley]

IMO, a down grade in the spring combined with BoC tightening.

The bigger question is what brings us out now? There is no more treasury money to throw at the economy, the BoC balance sheet must be bursting at the seams, consumer tapped right the f out or struggling to pay bills.

And ZERO policies to expanding our economy to pay for any of it - NONE, just more debt thrown around.

Farmers will be soon be paying exhorbitant carbon taxes. Taxes will slam ag. GST. carbon. PST. Capital gains taxes. Death taxes. Municipal. Fishing. Every kind of license fees you can imagine.

The UN will pay your bills on the condition they take your land, and also on the condition you can never buy it back again. Of course Trudeau will have the system all set up for paying off your debt. Canada will become the first post national state of the UN. And lose its stays as a sovereign nation.Trudeau will have fullfilled that promise to his voters.

Canada will get filled with illegals and well-off refugees who complain incessantly about the hardships of their low monthly Govt payments. Eventually farmers will be moved to city low housing areas

Most middle class working Canadians will lose their jobs to robots and will spend most of their time reading pamphlets with instructions on how to be happy. Small businesses will become a thing of bygone times. Billionaires will own the land whom people will depend upon for food. Plus owning the waterways most farmers had been leasing out to Ducks Unlimited.

Most Canadians will wring their hands and wonder why Canadians sat back and watched it happen.

How’s that for a depressing read written in the middle of the night and read over brekfast? Pars.

[burnt]

The UN will ...

...Pars.

Glasgow, COP26

"...and wonder why Canadians sat back and watched it happen"

[Old Cowzilla]

Middle class is middle aged or older and robots are needed to replace them because nobody will do there jobs when they retire. Farmers will not be moved to the low rental city areas because there will not be any room for them. Governments will let us keep our land ( they loan out the money for most purchases anyway ) and just tax the crap out of it while you look after it. I actually make RM grader payments its shows it on my tax bill this year. She's a beauty I wonder if I can take her for a spin ?

[errolanderson]

Friday may be face-the-music day . . . Labour reports released. Some estimates stateside suggest 400,000 jobs lost in January.

Upcoming inflation data may also suggest a peak. Government data always behind the curve.

Atlanta Fed posting tough U.S. GDP estimates of only 0.1 percent growth. Fed may have to back off their rate hike talk, if data shows significant slowdown. Little doubt, Bank of Canada will be at a standstill . . . .

[errolanderson]

Tough week for markets. It’s unusual that stocks, bonds and commodities all drop in-unison. Even oil and wheat down sharply from early week highs. Tech losses now staggering.

Noticeable: Credit markets under-seige. Huge outflow in bonds this week, from junk to high-quality corporate. This is a sign incoming recession gaining momentum . . . .

[Sodbuster]

Most of my managed money is invested in the oil and gas sector, as long as the stupidity of the world to go green keeps going my money will stay there and also doubles as a hedge for diesel.

[errolanderson]

Commodities at-risk as well. If credit markets blow, stagflation turns toward deflation.

Inflation party still rocking even as economy slows, but that can change quickly as the easy money tap gets turned off.

[Hamloc]

Commodities at-risk as well. If credit markets blow, stagflation turns toward deflation.

Inflation party still rocking even as economy slows, but that can change quickly as the easy money tap gets turned off.

My son was helping do a concrete floor in a new shop in the area yesterday. He was talking to one of the builders. He told my son that he thought 3/8 plywood would be $100 a sheet by spring, now that is inflation!!!!