Fast Moving Incoming Recession . . . .

[errolanderson]

Yes . . . . Always thought I’d seen everything in 30 years of commodity trading, but this past month is another memory.

[errolanderson]

PS: 5 percent drop in Calgary house prices reported last week. Here she comes . . .

[WiltonRanch]

Banker told my dad her house cost her $500 grand but with current market $380. My local town which 10 years ago every house occupied now 25%+ empty. If you minus lower mainland bc and the Toronto corridor houses have been declining Canada wide for some time.

[furrowtickler]

Wait till the full effect of the inflation kicks in , interest rates sneak up a bit more and carbon tax continues to kick in .
Middle class wealth destruction will be serious by the end of this year

[errolanderson]

Alan Greenspan watches the ‘Mens Underwear Index’ for clues about an incoming recession. Apparently, us guys cheap-out on underwear replacement needs when times get tough. This is a real index and apparently now flashing red . . . .

[AlbertaFarmer5]

This becomes a circular argument though.

If Errol is correct, and the current policies lead us into deflation and decreasing asset prices, then the central banks are then free to return to printing money at nauseam without the threat of imminent runaway inflation, keeping the party going for one more cycle.
Every tool in their book is designed to counter deflation and attempt to create inflation. And all of those policies are very popular with the politicians and the voters and the business community, it is the tools to fight inflation that are highly unpopular and they don't want to have to use.

[jazz]

Going to offer the contrarian view. Peace deal in Ukraine inside 1 month, sanctions all bluster. US CPI dips to 5 or 6% by August, rate hikes paused, QE keeps going, recession averted in US.

But BOC has already wobbled the housing in Canada. People are way too indebted and have no savings here to even handle a 0.25bp move and instead of locking down their mortgages for 5 yrs at 2% rates, Canadians used CERB money to put as downpayments on more RE.

[Hamloc]

Going to offer the contrarian view. Peace deal in Ukraine inside 1 month, sanctions all bluster. US CPI dips to 5 or 6% by August, rate hikes paused, QE keeps going, recession averted in US.

But BOC has already wobbled the housing in Canada. People are way too indebted and have no savings here to even handle a 0.25bp move and instead of locking down their mortgages for 5 yrs at 2% rates, Canadians used CERB money to put as downpayments on more RE.

I think what is very telling is that there was such a reaction to a .25% interest rate increase. If that puts people over the edge they were too close to the edge!

[furrowtickler]

Going to offer the contrarian view. Peace deal in Ukraine inside 1 month, sanctions all bluster. US CPI dips to 5 or 6% by August, rate hikes paused, QE keeps going, recession averted in US.

But BOC has already wobbled the housing in Canada. People are way too indebted and have no savings here to even handle a 0.25bp move and instead of locking down their mortgages for 5 yrs at 2% rates, Canadians used CERB money to put as downpayments on more RE.

Agree totally on the use of CERB money by many, add in that being cut off with current inflation and a storm is no longer brewing its here

[jazz]

Agree totally on the use of CERB money by many, add in that being cut off with current inflation and a storm is no longer brewing its here

In the 1970s, a house was worth $60k in the city and people didnt take out loans for cars and furniture and trips.

So the higher rates affected mortgage owners who got caught. I dont remember anyone saying they couldnt afford food back in the 70s.

The huge debt overhang is the inflation moderator. The fed doesnt have to do a thing at all, it will self correct.

[foragefarmer]

Banker told my dad her house cost her $500 grand but with current market $380. My local town which 10 years ago every house occupied now 25%+ empty. If you minus lower mainland bc and the Toronto corridor houses have been declining Canada wide for some time.

"Average home price in Canada increased 20% to $816,000.00 from Feb 2021 to Feb 2022, according to CREA."

In Manitoba the housing market particularly around the larger communities and the cities of Wpg, Steinbach, Morden-Winkler and Selkirk are red hot.

Any decent house receives multiple offers. Low inventories of single dwelling homes, more buyers than sellers.

[checking]

Alan Greenspan watches the ‘Mens Underwear Index’ for clues about an incoming recession. Apparently, us guys cheap-out on underwear replacement needs when times get tough. This is a real index and apparently now flashing red . . . .

Is this the ultimate definition of a market short?

[Taiga]

Lumber is down 30% in a month, maybe Jazz and I can afford those new shops this year after all.

[errolanderson]

Lumber is down 30% in a month, maybe Jazz and I can afford those new shops this year after all.

This wasn't inflation, this was gouging. To me, a big difference. A lot of products fit this bill . . . .

[errolanderson]

U.S. mortgage refinancing demand is reported down 60 percent from a year ago due to rising rates. What’s happening to those mortgages and payments? More homes for sale, foreclosures?