Markets betting on big crops ...

[Guest]

Farmers for climate action
6000+ members
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-15/doctors-farmers-urge-government-stronger-climate-targets-glasgow/100462018

[beaverdam]

Bran frost is one thing, but if,,, when your wheat kernel dries down to 13.5-14.5% moisture, there could be a lot of bus weight loss, and quality loss. If it's real bad, there might just be a flake of a hull. Time will tell.

[Guest]

Released today from GIWA Grain Industry Association of Western Australia. Latest estimate down 700,000 t from September 3,4 the frost event. Much less than previously feared and sensationalised by media and Bill drama queen. Still a long ways off from the bin though.

[Guest]

Possible frost event tonight,tomorrow night in western Australia. Tuesday morning here now. Canola swathing started north east of Perth. Wheat and barley quite vulnerable at this stage of head fill otherwise good moisture to finish if we escape.

[furrowtickler]

Good luck
Frost can takith away faster than one could ever imagine, just like hail
Been there several times over the past 30 years of actually farming ... it’s not a great feeling or fun to deal with the fall out after .

Makes it tough to raise a family while the rest of the ag industry tends to punish the wounded.

That’s a fact

[furrowtickler]

And now reality shows up ...
https://twitter.com/LeighStrange1/status/1457519726259683330

Frost hammers yields in cereals at flowering , combines eventually show the truth ....

Add that to some big areas getting 8 in rain the past 3-4 days flooding paddocks ...

file:///var/mobile/Library/SMS/Attachments/68/08/FF357824-E64C-4EA0-8200-926513D90F3A/IMG_8742.png

The world was betting on a big harvest in Australia, never count on big yields before harvest even starts . Should be a lesson learned this past year from both the northern hemisphere and now the Southern Hemisphere.

[furrowtickler]

That’s a lot of rain

[Guest]

I was right and the crop is even better than expected

[BreadWinner]

It's not in the bin yet.

[BTO780]

It might be big ... feed quality big if the rains continue.
Wheat is on another rally for some reason. Lock the bins with any high quality stuff.
Lentils could be getting hurt also.

[Guest]

It's not in the bin yet.

Absolutely. Target is always try to finish by Xmas. We're going into summer so days are getting longer, drier, and hotter. That will last till April actually. Biggest threat to yield loss now is fire so that is small and localized. Harvest bans occasionally. You legally must have a fire fighting unit in the field for every combine and firebreaks maintained around the perimeter. You could still get a freak widespread rain with followup hot humid which downgrades quality PFQ.

[furrowtickler]

I was right and the crop is even better than expected

Does Neil do yield projections there too ????