Markets betting on big crops ...

[furrowtickler]

Till there not in the bin .... sounds familiar

[furrowtickler]

The impact of this situation is going to be big .
Prices may not skyrocket, but could hold for a longer time than previously thought .
This is much bigger news than covid , election flag waving and is about to have a major impact on the WORLDWIDE GRAIN MARKET..... yes ... actual relevant marketing situation...

The markets were betting on a very big Australian crop ..... its was there , till it’s not
Very familiar with the North American situation earlier in the year .

[jazz]

The lentil market was expecting Australia to come to the rescue. I dont know what sort of a position they were in to make up supply in canola and wheat this yr.

I see no news reports about this cold snap.

[furrowtickler]

Off to my Nieces wedding for the weekend, everything that was ready has been combined ... the rest can wait till after . Hopefully the weather holds next 10 days and good or poor crops , we get them off before more inclement weather again
Have a good long weekend, stay safe .
Farm hard and try not to get distracted by things that don’t really matter till after harvest , it is stressful enough dealing with markets and Mother Nature .
Last week was tough on the nerves for most and sad to see so many crops get hailed out . Hopefully some insurance helps .
All those other issues will still be there after harvest .

[Rareearth]

On my iphone Weather app i put in Horsham Australia, they are on of the main lentil chickpea growing areas i believe I watch it at this time of year (watching to see if they get frost, i watch the over night low temperature forcasts, etc) they were showing -1, -2 ect a week or two ago. I dont think it got that cold.
For today they are showing a high of 14 and a low of +2 C

Imagine what would happen if they got a hard frost 😮...😊 the exporters would increase bids “special”m they would buy for a few weeks before it got to growers level here. Then, a - ha thats why they were buying hard, realization hits, and prices move another .20 cents lb higher, etc

[SASKFARMER]

Every buyer was good for the ****s that live hand to mouth good

[Guest]

Till there not in the bin .... sounds familiar

I've travelled throughout that whole pink area in western Australia in the past two weeks attending the Dowerin field days then Newdegate field days. No frost reported or seen, nothing being mentioned on local news or otherwise. Latest weather update today on Landline, a national farm TV program. In the 15+ years I've been here there are varying levels of frost events in the lower southwest at least 50% of the time. Usually 3rd week of September. There is a big crop coming and canola acres almost doubled. Some minor flooding issues near south coast and minor mouse issues near Geraldton south. All in all could be a cracker time will tell.

[GDR]

I've travelled throughout that whole pink area in western Australia in the past two weeks attending the Dowerin field days then Newdegate field days. No frost reported or seen, nothing being mentioned on local news or otherwise. Latest weather update today on Landline, a national farm TV program. In the 15+ years I've been here there are varying levels of frost events in the lower southwest at least 50% of the time. Usually 3rd week of September. There is a big crop coming and canola acres almost doubled. Some minor flooding issues near south coast and minor mouse issues near Geraldton south. All in all could be a cracker time will tell.

And when would the canola ne harvested?

[Guest]

And when would the canola ne harvested?

OCT to DEC north to south

[SASKFARMER]

So you are saying no frost event at all.

[Guest]

So you are saying no frost event at all.

Nothing significant that I am aware of yet

[furrowtickler]

[jazz]

Aussies looking for frost resistance, Canada looking for heat tolerance.

We will know pretty quick if this event had an impact. I am already getting texts from buyers begging me to sell it all this fall.

[errolanderson]

Key factors pressuring commodity prices this fall as we see it (ProMarket Wire) . . . .

Falling ethanol production stateside due in-part to shift U.S.energy policy freeing up corn bushels. No shortage of corn expected.

China hiked its corn acres significantly. Much larger production expected. They will not be the same international buyer as a year ago. USDA export estimates too high (IMO).

Late rains beneficial for soybeans, not so much corn, but damper on fund spec buying nonetheless.

Technicals and demand have turned down broadly across the commodity world, not just ag.

Lift in USD, pushed American export prices slightly higher. Exports slowed. Expect firm dollar this winter as gold continues its struggle.

Deflation remains just a stock market correction/crash away.

[furrowtickler]

I hope your right on deflation Errol because our costs as grain farmers have spiralled out of control this past 6 months .