$20 Canola is too Cheap

[iceman]

Regardless of Canola $20+ next year I have a feeling there will be alot fewer canola acres on the gumbo next year. Unless there is a meaningful recharge of the subsoil moisture I know there will be fewer on this farm if any at all and I know I'm not alone.

The thing is planting canola won’t cost that much more than planting durum at $22 per bushel or 60cent lentils.

[biglentil]

The thing is planting canola won’t cost that much more than planting durum at $22 per bushel or 60cent lentils.

Not dealing with establishment issues and not supporting the biotech giants ....priceless. Would not surprise me if we see another big jump in canola seed price for 22.

[Hamloc]

We noticed dry burnt out areas by far worst
Low areas with better yields there is very little , most varieties the same in this area

Ran out a sample in 2 fields a few days ago, thought we were cracking the canola. On closer inspection it was indeed sprouted canola. Looking earlier in the year I had observed sprouted canola in the pods.

[furrowtickler]

How will this affect storage?

Exposed oil , even low amounts , will heat very quickly even if dry and or not on air

[jazz]

Exposed oil , even low amounts , will heat very quickly even if dry and or not on air

If shes 20 bucks, then I think thats enough premium to let it be someone elses problem.

Last thing this year needs is a bunch of storage and heating troubles.

[furrowtickler]

If shes 20 bucks, then I think thats enough premium to let it be someone elses problem.

Last thing this year needs is a bunch of storage and heating troubles.

Unfortunately that is reality.
At today prices if one has canola contract or not , and you see much for sprouting , agree let the elevators deal with it unless you have extra aeration and time to babysit canola on farm storage

I have heard of bins crusting and starting to heat within 24 hrs

[farming101]

Unfortunately that is reality.
At today prices if one has canola contract or not , and you see much for sprouting , agree let the elevators deal with it unless you have extra aeration and time to babysit canola on farm storage

I have heard of bins crusting and starting to heat within 24 hrs

Never been a better year to get the tops off the bins

[jazz]

furrow I am seeing a tiny fraction of this sprouting in the canola. Maybe under 0.5%. Testing dry 6-8% moisture. Blowing it down before going into storage. This going to be a problem? What's safe threshold for sprouting? This is all new to me.

[furrowtickler]

I would think your fine , should have no issues with that at all , unless you get pockets of sprouts from bigger areas in fields
No one knows the threshold as of yet that I know .
Some of the pictures I sent were quite severe.
Most of ours not too bad so far but we are hauling in anyway for now to fill contracts with the worst we have .

Some of the heating issues are above 10% sprouts from what I heard .
Not much canola in bin storage yet here . Most going straight in . But most canola just starting to come off . If a good weather week a lot will be coming off .

[fjlip]

No sprouting here? Had couple inches on swaths. Maybe cool enough since.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Getting back to the price of canola. Currently, the printed crush margin is negative. That s based on the current price of soyoil and soymeal. Which doesn't bode well for canola prices going up.
Technically, both soyoil and palm oil don't seem to be able to break above their previous highs.

Does anyone have industry connections who might be able to answer this question:

Does the price of canola oil necessarily follow soyoil, especially right now with a deficit of canola oil, and the end uses of canola oil being much more skewed to human consumption vs animal or industrial?

Is there more to the crush margin story, or is the party over unless soyoil reverses course?

[biglentil]

Getting back to the price of canola. Currently, the printed crush margin is negative. That s based on the current price of soyoil and soymeal. Which doesn't bode well for canola prices going up.
Technically, both soyoil and palm oil don't seem to be able to break above their previous highs.

Does anyone have industry connections who might be able to answer this question:

Does the price of canola oil necessarily follow soyoil, especially right now with a deficit of canola oil, and the end uses of canola oil being much more skewed to human consumption vs animal or industrial?

Is there more to the crush margin story, or is the party over unless soyoil reverses course?

Unfortunately for the secondary manufacturers it's not so easy to flip flop their ingredients. Formulation, nutrient information, tooling and labeling all takes time and $ to switch over. Sometimes they switch over just in time to want to switch back.