Canola Demand Rationing

[jazz]

Thank-you

So WK, in a few words, canola toppy or not?

I dont really want to hold until January. I am very concerned about the broader economy and how that could pull things down.

[farming101]

.

[Rareearth]

So what would the real canola crush margin be?

Thats a good chart thank you

[farming101]

It's a moving target. New crush plants would indicate there's a dollar in it....

[furrowtickler]

Canola coming off 11 to 15. That's not moisture.

Lots like that here too here and east
Had a few guys out west complaining about 20 lol
Well 5 inches is more than 3.5
And east of here it worse
Some still don’t know what real drought is
Just finished a 1/4 .. 17 bus
This next 300 will not make 15 ... highest assessment land in the RM ... simply misses every rain 4 years straight . I am sure the moisture deficiency here is 8 feet in the ground . Only 2 miles from home,25 bus there . But at home it is an easy 1 to 1.5 inches more per year
Crazy the difference.
Yet if this land went for sale , it would not go for less than $700,000 lol
It’s retardad here now ....

[burnt]

Is the market stalled out. All the bad news is out there.

In the spring guys like sodbuster were picking off those $22+ targets. Now it can't break $20 with even less canola in the system.

Don't understand the supply demand mechanism at play. Are there alternatives to canola or has someone volunteered to go without it.

"Buy the rumor, sell the fact" in play?

Markets like this give "highs hangovers" every time.

[bucket]

What about all those contracts that were signed early and are not filled and farmers have to buy out their shortages.

Seems like that needed a full court press by the saskeverything commissions.

If the prices are going down there can't be shortages , something doesn't add up here.

Shortage of glyphosate prices to the moon.

Shortage of wheat bread prices to the moon

Shortage of fertilizer prices to the moon

Shortage of canola prices drop.

[burnt]

What about all those contracts that were signed early and are now filled and farmers have to buy out their shortages.

Seems like that needed a full court press by the saskeverything commissions.

If the prices are going down there can't be shortages , something doesn't add up here.

Shortage of glyphosate prices to the moon.

Shortage of wheat bread prices to the moon

Shortage of fertilizer prices to the moon

Shortage of canola prices drop.

Your points remind me of the story a friend told about an experience while working for a local plumber -
They had replaced an old cast iron tub with a new one for a customer and took the old tub to a scrap yard where he got $50 for it.

A day later the renno customer asked "where's the old tub" and wanted in back since it was an antique.

The plumber went back to the scrap yard and asked to buy it back.

The scrapper said "sure, $100 please".

"What", says the pluimber, "you only gave me $50 for it yesterday!!"

The scrapper replied, "And that, my friend, is the difference between buyink and sellink."

Sorry - maybe totally unrelated, but something about it seems to jive...

[farming101]

China r a p e seed oil 2 yr nearby chart

[furrowtickler]

Interesting to see all the charts , thanks 👍👍

[wheatking16]

So WK, in a few words, canola toppy or not?

I dont really want to hold until January. I am very concerned about the broader economy and how that could pull things down.

The chart feels toppy to me and also considering the corn, soybean and wheat charts.

The weekly Canola chart is in a no-trade zone for me as I am waiting for it to either resolve higher with a weekly close above the green line or a weekly close below the red line.




The Daily Chart has today's candle below the 50 Day Moving Average. The green 50 DMA is still advancing so I anticipate some sideways price action. I get bearish once that 50 DMA rolls over and a new Daily close low is made.

Different charts can tell different stories.

Which chart you use depends on your timeframe.





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[furrowtickler]

Thank you guys for breathing new life into this commodity market forum 👍👍