Canola Demand Rationing

[jazz]

Is the market stalled out. All the bad news is out there.

In the spring guys like sodbuster were picking off those $22+ targets. Now it can't break $20 with even less canola in the system.

Don't understand the supply demand mechanism at play. Are there alternatives to canola or has someone volunteered to go without it.

[agstar77]

Ever heard of harvest pressure? Well since buyers are not used to 20 canola there is probably a little chicken going on to see who will blink first. Until things settle out we won't see a lot of movement jmo.

[WiltonRanch]

Realization of half or less of a crop out there by buyers going through their stages of grief takes time. Maybe they’re hoping Aussie crop comes in unscathed and Eastern Europe can make up shortfalls. Judging by yields here and what I’ve heard of the best looking crops in our general area, it’s half a crop here. Other areas way less or nothing.

[wheatking16]

NOV Canola has not made a new low, however, I don't feel good about the chart considering soybeans, corn and wheat.




Soybeans are working on a new weekly close for the year with not much previous supply below.



Corn breaking down from consolidation at the 0.5 Fibonacci level.




Wheat getting rejected at the measured move price target.





Klarenbach Report
https://klarenbach.substack.com/

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[biglentil]

NOV Canola has not made a new low, however, I don't feel good about the chart considering soybeans, corn and wheat.

[ATTACH]8524[/ATTACH]


Soybeans are working on a new weekly close for the year with not much previous supply below.

[ATTACH]8523[/ATTACH]

Corn breaking down from consolidation at the 0.5 Fibonacci level.

[ATTACH]8526[/ATTACH]


Wheat getting rejected at the measured move price target.

[ATTACH]8527[/ATTACH]



Klarenbach Report
https://klarenbach.substack.com/

Telegram Channel
https://t.me/klarenbachresearch

Looks too me like they need to make a double top before I get too bearish.

[BreadWinner]

Wheat king your prediction is about as accurate as a July rain forecast. Lots at cheap contracts keeping the crushers fed till January then look out.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

How is the price of canola oil set?

I've been asking the same thing. The published Canola crush margin just uses soybean oil prices.

The European exchange does show a ****seed oil futures, but the complete lack of info makes me think it isn't active.

Crush margin has been negative lately, using soyoil and soymeal values, which makes me think that canola oil is trading at a premium to soyoil. But I doubt those numbers are public.

Could probably extrapolate back from bulk canola oil price in the store, or at restaurant wholesalers?

[agstar77]

Canola coming off 11 to 15. That's not moisture.

[wheatking16]

Wheat king your prediction is about as accurate as a July rain forecast. Lots at cheap contracts keeping the crushers fed till January then look out.

Remind me what my prediction is.

[BreadWinner]

Your like a politician, lots of blabbing but not saying anything.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Your like a politician, lots of blabbing but not saying anything.

Please don't do anything to chase away one of the only posters willing to discuss marketing on this commodity marketing forum.
Thank you Wheatking16 for a technical perspective, and not starting any Covid threads.

[wheatking16]

Please don't do anything to chase away one of the only posters willing to discuss marketing on this commodity marketing forum.
Thank you Wheatking16 for a technical perspective, and not starting any Covid threads.

Thank-you

[jazz]

Thank-you

So WK, in a few words, canola toppy or not?

I dont really want to hold until January. I am very concerned about the broader economy and how that could pull things down.

[farming101]

.

[Rareearth]

So what would the real canola crush margin be?

Thats a good chart thank you