Durum price drop

[Jagfarms]

[Jagfarms]

It was $22 last week and $21 on Monday. Price went up fast but came down even faster

[Ache4Acres]

Hmm they must of found a way to make synthetic durum

[biglentil]

Local terminal is posting 18.22 at the close today. I think g3 is out to lunch.

[newguy]

this was end of the day price.

[oldjim]

Local RP durum price Sept 10: #1 12.0 $18.58. Down from $19.70 yesterday.

1 RS 13.0: $9.70.

[jazz]

Yes, nasty drop in durum price confirmed. 3-5$

Not sure what games are being played here. The northern hemispheres durum harvest is in the books. There is nothing extra coming for 9 months.

[newguy]

Yes, nasty drop in durum price confirmed. 3-5$

Not sure what games are being played here. The northern hemispheres durum harvest is in the books. There is nothing extra coming for 9 months.

Lots of durum still coming off yet.Think they got enough for early sales.When they need more the price will bump back up.By dropping spot price saves them money on contract overage.May sound like a drop in the bucket but adds up over time.

[biglentil]

Pretty simple won't be selling any while the price is down in the gutter.

[newguy]

Pretty simple won't be selling any while the price is down in the gutter.

I would not say 17.40 is a price in the gutter.If I had my crop off when it hit 15 I probably would have sold it all.Sold 2/3 of it for 18.50 #5.So I could get over 20 for 3 if the spread widens.

[biglentil]

Said that facetiously, its nice to be able to say $17+ is gutter pricing. I had presold zero bushels and have sold over half this years durum over 21.50. The rest I'm content to sit on. I anticipate it will go much higher by Feb, but no one ever went broke taking a nice profit.

[jazz]

Why is the market punishing this crop. Down $5 in 2 weeks? WTH

[helmsdale]

Why is the market punishing this crop. Down $5 in 2 weeks? WTH

The only idea I've been able to come up with...

-Posted price will be nowhere near settlement price.

Buyers will insist that sellers put in TPA's, and then they'll be able to fill trains/boats from the lowest price they can trigger up to the price needed to fill it. Some guys are going to look at the posted and sign contracts upon that price because they need cash, others will put in 0.50 over, 2.00 over, or even 5-7 over.

And here's the best part... If you under-deliver there'll be penalties and adminstrative costs, and if you're over on your $5.00 above contract price contract, they pay based on the posted price for the overage.

[biglentil]

Why is the market punishing this crop. Down $5 in 2 weeks? WTH

Durum appears to have started to rebound seeing 18.44 at my local lineco. Maybe ran a little too quick to the 22 region. Classic 23.6% fibonacci retracement after a parabolic rise. I see this pullback as healthy consolidation setting up a nice level of support for the next leg higher into the mid 20 region.

[newguy]

They probably needed to drop it to get guys to sell more when it gets to 20 and 22 again.Expect this to happen a few times between now and next summer.